Sums it up well. Moon has smaller tech focused workforce with established salaries. CARD is predominantly made up of living wage workers and no doubt a lot of 18-20 workers. Ultimately the higher ni and wages hit card particularly hard as they operate on the value end of the market. They'll raise prices but will need to be very conscious of not pushing prices too hard. It's difficult to calibrate. Moon may ride the storm quite well with 89% recurring customers they don't face same price sensitivity. With all the negative consumer sentiment pre budget, plus other well telegraphed cost increases, a miss to the bottom line is inevitable in my view. Whilst still objectively decent value, the thesis is less attractive than it was and there's clearly going to be more reliance on the growth story going forward. |
Don't think so. Many jobs are seasonal - i.e. only a month or two at Xmas, and many of those are just weekend jobs. Indeed, I would not be surprised if a decent % of those employed during the rest of the year are also only weekend and holidays. |
Time for some lobbying of Rachel Reeves on some of these points. Given she is so keen to see fairness, how can it be fair that CF which employs 10k people gets hit by NIC threshold changes, NIC increases, NLW increases and high business rates while Moonpig bases itself in a tax haven and avoids most of these? |
So is it likely it will create more full time jobs as an indirect consequence? |
employing (lots of) people but for only 10-15 hours a week, means minimal NI bill - hence the big impact of the recent changes. |
Card revenue: 460mln ish
10000 employees
Moon revenue: 340mln ish
700 employees
I thought that must be wrong but Google never puts up dodgy website info. surely? ;-)
Very simplistic of course but a bit of a stunning difference and perhaps am indication of the problem.
I hold MOON but not CARD. Lost enough on MTC to put me off physical retail for good. |
Moon is much more resilient to changes in nic and the nlw. Card disproportionately hit, eating into margins with a slightly narrower price gap between moon and card.I don't envy CARD management over the next couple of years. Some v careful calibration of prices and operations to retain their growth ambitions, dividend payments and do their best to protect margins. I'm a long term holder, but it would be folly to suggest CARD isn't hit particularly hard by the budget. |
Deutsche Bank raises Moonpig from 220 to 290p. I wish someone would do that to CARD |
Can tell you Simply Wall Streets303p. |
Fenners - 1junebug gave us his/her view on CF value - what is yours? |
Thanks fenners - another interesting post |
 1junebug - I have only been looking at Card to any extent since the interims - as I have previously been a customer I had card on my watchlist for years (with a view to buying) but covid put me off and I have not paid much attention since then until recently.
Hence I Thought that they bought their cards in from China after noting that in the past (5 years ago or so) hence looking up the reference to FX stuff that I remembered from back then. I did look up google maps about the factory since the interims and if memory serves - some of the street view pictures have a different name on the factory - that's why I thought it was new.
As for bragging - I did say that I had NOT shorted any of the shares I have really done research on. So some would say I have been wasting my time.
Actually all the permabulls that I have upset on the way always say I have been wasting my time , even as they watched their shares disappear down the drain - but I have had a few messages thanking me for the analysis as some had not bought after reading the "bear questions".
Clearly this share is not going bust and is making a profit.
I have not set aside any time yet to try and come to a conclusion on how much hence questions for others - maybe i find it easier to see where things can go wrong than to work out where things could go right.
Many bulls read everything good implied by any management as sacrosanct. It might happen therefore it will. I try and read what management have not written and ask why not?
Since the market has taken it down - it comes back on the radar to buy |
Thank you - much appreciated |
an other aspect on the price increase in general
price (not) increase could be a management tool. by not doing it one gets clarity on where the unefficientcies are and lift the fog and can fine tune and push the organisation to the perfection.
and only then rise the prices
by just rising the prices - it is the easiest thing to do and could make the organisation more relaxed... but less efficient in the longer run |
1juneberg and fennels - I've enjoyed reading your posts which my make a difference from the usual unevidenced this is going to rocket or this is going to zero. May I ask what you each think the business is worth given the new NI and NLW environment? I am assuming that earnings miss the 14p expectations simply because the second half seems task seems too steep. But even at a rebased 12p this should be a reliable producer of free cash for years to come? Or am I talking nonsense? Thanks in advance |
I was in MeadowHall last night and popped in to Card. The usual steady stream of customers in and out. Seems the section of cheaper cards is getting smaller, or it was in this more premium location anyway. Wife bought 2 cards at 2.99 each - the first time I've been supportive of post 99p purchases in this area! |
1junebug - "if you want to be rude and braggadocios about things"
about what ?
"Some of your comments seemed to imply that their is an issue with the top-line and pricing-sensitivity"
no they don't - they ask others, who say that ramping up the prices is easy and would have fixed all the margin problems that actually led to the first half profits massively declining - why the management did not do it?
I offered up 2 answers , either they who know their business better than anyone - decided its not so easy or they missed a trick , its not implying either. |
My figures for the wage bill come out as:
2023 H1 £53,300,000.00
2023 H2 £70,700,000.00
2024 H1 £64,400,000.00
2024 H2 £81,336,169.20
2025 H1 £83,120,245.87
2025 H2 £102,726,084.00
Which looks pretty scary, but assuming 6% revenue growth this year and 10% next leaves EPS at 10p for both years.
This assumes no more rev. from US/SA/AUS. So scope to surprise to the upside with a fairly good value base case (at this price!). |
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