Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 24/7/2024 16:26

The point about Schroders/Brough's 18% stake in CAR is not the amount, but the fact of such a large and thus illiquid stake in a tiddler. Which indicates that they're likely in for the long-term and presumably for considerable gains.

[queenbreguet] 24/7/2024 15:08

Offer is showing 27.2p

[queenbreguet] 24/7/2024 15:08

Interesting would only sell max 10K on line now but willing to buy 100K from me at 28.66p

[eigthwonder] 24/7/2024 15:00

Broughy has big stakes in tiddlers. Given the amount he runs that is a rounding error.

[johnrxx99] 24/7/2024 14:43

HH, whoops - apologies

[queenbreguet] 24/7/2024 14:42

Um 2p to breking even.Tempted to sell since its been a long haul of keeping the faith. What to do ??

[rivaldo] 24/7/2024 14:16

Quite a commitment from Schroders in what even after the rise is still only a £19.7m m/cap company - they're now up above 18% (from 16.1%) with 13.2m shares:

[1gw] 24/7/2024 14:13

Nice. Good to see an institution increasing at these price levels.

[beeezzz] 24/7/2024 14:07

Maybe he sees a takeover at these valuations....

Mr Black looking to take some profit, and why not...

[mesquida] 24/7/2024 13:53

Andy Brough very keen !

[wigwammer] 24/7/2024 11:20

I have no issue listening to bear points at all. But I do have an issue with your bear points because they contain material inaccuracies and things that are not true. Thank you for already conceding that my figures DID include adjustments for both lease costs and capex, contrary to what you previously stated. Presumably you can also see now that material underlying growth has been achieved at CTP over the last 5 years, contrary to what you previously suggested. So as I predicted, you have now moved on to another bearish angle relating to the structural margins they can achieve. There are good answers to this point, but I suspect you would then just move on to yet another bear point... The stock is up 200% in a matter of weeks - many here have got it correct and profited. But here you are blandly listing negatives and oddly accusing others of only seeing one side of the coin.. ATB

[arthur_lame_stocks] 24/7/2024 10:58

Basically, if you think that listening to bear points is a waste of time then I would argue your psychology is flawed as an investor.

I'm not going to argue all the detail at the moment but my main reasons for feeling that the bulls have got this wrong are that the assumptions for the margins that can be achieved for what is basically a plastic extrusion business are highly unrealistic and that the market for plastic is going to enter long term structural decline if and when suitable alternatives can be found.

Also, it appears to me that the company may be in financial distress, possibly on the verge of insolvency.

To Mr it's a deeply unappealing risk/reward.

[wigwammer] 24/7/2024 10:01

I have not ignored those cash costs at all, lame. The £5.6m interest charge quoted includes the £1m lease expense, and the ebit figure of £13m is post depreciation ie it includes an adjustment for capex. Interestingly, current capex is running at a fraction of depreciation, so if they do get to 10% op margin and can continue to sweat the assets, then cash conversion should look great. As for it not being a growth market - that seems silly based on the evidence. Yes they had a fast acceleration during Covid and the top line has inevitably come back since then, but the underlying growth at CTP over the last 5 years looks great. Are you one of those posters who is just going to waste people's time with an endless list of negatives?

[arthur_lame_stocks] 24/7/2024 09:34

Between you all you've raised a number of points which I'll try to address.

Wigwammer is ignoring a number of important unavoidable cash costs, specifically purchases of plant and equipment and lease costs. Last year these seem to have added up to about £6.5m.

Basically the majority of their business is selling plastic products for medical use. Why should this be a growth industry when reducing plastic use is big on the agenda and you can very simply confirm that this is also true for medical use with an internet search.

[wigwammer] 24/7/2024 08:48

You have been repeatedly saying this since the shares were sub 10p, and you should really take time to reflect. You have got it badly wrong, and I hope no one acted on your posts and sold near the lows.

[hopeful holder] 24/7/2024 08:39

John, my post replies to Lame stocks so I am agreeing with the increase in share price I am disagreeing with his assertion that we are bleeding cash.

[beeezzz] 24/7/2024 08:34

Why did Mr Black sell before results, seems he made the wrong decision, on your analysis....

Its increasingly obvious that margins will continue to be squeezed in a very competitive market, where they can never compete with China.

Relying on contracts of which we know very little about is a weak business model, if they actually made a medical product and sold into the market, then they could dictate profit margins. Aero division may well be spun off as this seems to be operating well.

At present their contractors are making huge profits.

[johnrxx99] 24/7/2024 08:10

Yes, of course - I would not want to follow HH's opinion, I prefer Mr. Market, period.

[wigwammer] 24/7/2024 07:39

The stock has just tripled in three months. Presumably the market is increasingly agreeing, no?

[johnrxx99] 24/7/2024 07:31

HH, therefore. why does the market disagree?

[hopeful holder] 24/7/2024 07:02

Please show your workings as the companies own published results, which I shared the extract with you, evidences that you are wholly incorrect in your post.Good luck on your derailing but the evidence is there to show your posts regarding cash have no merit at this time.

[wigwammer] 24/7/2024 05:48

At 10% op margin, Carclo will be earning circa £13m ebit pa. Assuming interest of £5.6m and a 20% tax rate leaves a very healthy £5.9m net profit each year. This can be used to pay down liabilities, or even one day, pay a dividend. On top of this, Carclo operate in a growing industry, so we can anticipate over time that both top and bottom line will grow at a healthy clip, and that sort of profile usually attracts a high earnings multiple..... Carclo does attract a long list of mathematically challenged sceptics, and imprecise and emotive terms like "shedding cash" are usually associated with attention seekers rather than truth seekers. IMO

[arthur_lame_stocks] 24/7/2024 01:44

Mesquida

I actually did try to calculate how much money Carclo would make if they earnt 10 percent on sales and the best estimate I could come up with is that they would still be shedding cash.

There are some other points you should consider before getting too confident.

Firstly, there is a surprisingly small amount of cash tied up in working capital. Are they operating on reduced credit?

Secondly, the longevity assumptions they are using to calculate the pension deficit look on the low side to me compared to the ones used by most companies I have looked at recently.

[2magpies] 23/7/2024 20:49

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[mesquida] 23/7/2024 18:08

Not quite sure why you consistently post so negatively beeezzz. After this week's stellar performance a bit of profit talking was only to be expected late this afternoon, indeed most of us would see it as a fairly healthy reaction.
Have you tried calculating the potential EpS should Carclo hit their target of 10% margin on sales. Might be a more worthwhile use of your time !