Capricorn Energy Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 03/7/2024 14:18

Subscribers only i believe

[cat33] 03/7/2024 14:09

Correct linkhttps://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-july-3-2024

[cat33] 03/7/2024 14:06

Jim sums up the latest https://mining.beehiiv.com/p/jims-mining-letter-july-2-2024Worth reading

[plasybryn] 03/7/2024 13:00

SP Angel today:-performanceCapricorn announced average 1H24 production of 25.4kboe/d (45% liquids) is in line with the 20-24kboe/d FY24 guidance range, with drilling activity recommenced at the end of June and three rigs under contract.The Company reported receivables in Egypt have reduced from $169m to $145m YTD24 enabling a current net cash position of ~$40m, after settling a $25m contingent payment to Shell and paying the $50m dividend.In Senegal, start-up of Woodside's Sangomar development last month could lead to a potential contingent payment of up to $50m in 1Q25 if crude oil prices remain above $60/bbl in 2H24.A solid 1H24 operational performance from Capricorn, which was boosted by the improved fiscal landscape in Egypt that has seen $108m collected against its Egyptian accounts receivable in YTD24.The Company remains committed to returning any available proceeds of the Woodside contingent payment to its shareholders, but is first responsible for the payment of certain taxes arising from the sale.Capricorn believes its market capitalisation implies that the underlying net asset value in Egypt is heavily risked, but we think management still has to demonstrate greater value from this stand-alone small-cap Egyptian producer than was available from the merger options to create a more balanced larger player preferred by the former management.

[jimpingle] 19/6/2024 16:10

Labour will destroy the UK Oil & Gas Sector.

Tories have no chance, a wasted vote.

Vote for Reform, the only party with the possibility of winning.

Tell your family & friends, Not just for Oil & Gas, but for Great Britain.

17m+ voted for Brexit, vote REFORM!

[last of the mohicans] 14/6/2024 18:18

cat33,

You can only read it if you subscribe to it.

LOTM

[cat33] 13/6/2024 17:22

Good summary of the current situation https://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-june-13-2024Worth reading

[p6r0] 13/6/2024 15:59

SP back down to where it was prior to the Sangomar first oil announcement today! I have added a further £5000 of stock to my holding, seems cheap to me irrespective of the uncertainty with the Waldorf situation.

[last of the mohicans] 11/6/2024 14:54

I did think the milestone would be achieved & yes Woodside have cut it tighter than one might have liked.

I had been watching the FPSO to see if a tanker came alongside as that would be definitive proof that first oil had been achieved, but that hasn't occurred yet.

The only issue with the statement is that there is no real definition of how much tax Capricorn might have to pay to Senegal out of the $50M they will now very likely get.

I mean if its like $25M to settle all the tax bills then the payout is going to be a lot less than people might be expecting.

Never the less its a positive outcome compared to the current Waldorf story.

LOTM

[nigelpm] 11/6/2024 08:47

There’s no way that Woodside is gonna declare first oil in the next 4 weeks.

How about 4 days ;-)

[cashandcard] 11/6/2024 08:30

First oil achieved at Sangomar!Cash

[plasybryn] 11/6/2024 08:12

Exciting news this morning.

[hsfinch] 07/6/2024 09:42

There's no way that Woodside is gonna declare first oil in the next 4 weeks.

[last of the mohicans] 07/6/2024 06:37

The worrying bit of the article ......

"The North Sea Transition Authority and Offshore Petroleum Regulator for Environment and Decommissioning have been kept appraised of the prospective holding company administrations, and have provided certain assurances to the proposed administrators.

A separate secured bond with $50million outstanding has been issued by Waldorf Production UK, another group subsidiary.

The main assets secured in favour of this bond are its 20% interest in the Catcher field - separate from the 20% interest in Catcher previously noted - and 29.5% interest in the Kraken field.

Again, Waldorf Production UK, which owns these assets, is not in administration and will be engaging with an ad-hoc committee of bondholders in short order."


-----------

In other words the old CNE assets have this $50M bond that's now in default secured against them!

Looking more & more messy :(

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 05/6/2024 10:41

Oh my that could throw a spanner in the works !

Could open up a lot of unknowns ..............

Will they still get the Columbus field or not ?

Will they still get the other $22.5M in 2025 ?

& what about the $48M liability that was covered, but CNE let Waldorf use that cash in the meantime!

All of that on top of the Senegal end of June deadline ...............

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 30/5/2024 22:31

Hi Plasybryn,

There having a laugh aren't they (SP Angels)

The old board spent money like it was confetti ............

The new board stopped a whole lot of cap-ex on various high risk prospects around the world to start with.

On top of that they decimated G&A expense's cutting them from $70M annually to roughly $20M from the start of 2024.

On 72M shares that's an annual saving of roughly £0.56 per share, that was needlessly being spent by the previous board.

SP Angels should be ashamed of themselves to put it mildly.

LOTM

[plasybryn] 29/5/2024 13:44

From: share price Angel EnergyDate: 23 May 2024 at 11:02:18 BSTCapricorn Energy (CNE LN) 192p, Market Cap £177m: Improvement in Egyptian receivablesCapricorn announced average YTD24 production is in line with the midpoint of 20-24kboe/d FY24 guidance, with an update on production performance to be provided later in the year.The Company reported receivables in Egypt have reduced from $169m to $151m enabling an improved net cash position of ~$101m as at end-April, ahead of settling a $25m contingent payment for Egypt to Shell.In Senegal, start-up of Woodside’s Sangomar development by the end of June could lead to a potential contingent payment of up to $50m in 1Q25 if crude oil prices remain above $60/bbl in 2H24.A perfunctory update ahead of the AGM, which points to the positive impact of the improved fiscal landscape in Egypt that has seen $71m of receipts during 4M24.The Company wants to see the initial results of its drilling activities before updating the market, with this year’s development activities expected to have a greater impact on 2025 production than 2024.Capricorn believes its market capitalisation implies that the underlying net asset value in Egypt are heavily risked, but we think management still has to demonstrate greater value from this stand-alone small-cap Egyptian producer than was available from the merger options to create a more balanced larger player preferred by the former management.

[last of the mohicans] 29/5/2024 02:30

So if I look at this from the AGM

"Since year end, Capricorn's cash position improved from $190m to $209m at 30 April 2024. Over the same period, receivables in Egypt have reduced from $169m to $151m, and debt drawn has reduced from $114m to $108m. Subsequent to 30 April, the Company has settled the $25m contingent consideration due to Shell related to the acquisition of the Egypt assets."

Its effectively saying as of 7th June 2024.

That the company has net cash of $26M ($209M - $50M dividend - $25M to Shell - $108M of debt) plus $151M of receivables its yet to receive.

Its also committed to spending $57M during the rest of 2024.

So in actual fact cash is going to be pretty tight for a quite a while - even when it gets a decent boost in early July for Q2 sales.

I guess the share price is being buoyed at the moment by the possible $50M Woodside payment even although they wouldn't receive it until early 2025 & then distribute it after that. With 72m shares in issue we're talking roughly £0.56 per share, which is a lot of cash relative to the market cap.

If there are any hiccups to the Egypt payments again, then they will have to cut-back on that cap-ex pretty darn quickly to ensure they have the cash to keep going (although they will get a little from the North Sea this time round to help sustain them & there admin costs are now much lower than before) so the burn rate will be much lower per month.

There's also only $12M left to pay to Shell in early 2025 & a bit more from Waldorf to come in to help off-set it.

In summary there cutting it pretty tight, I would have liked to see a little more wiggle room maybe $15 - 20M just to be on the safe side.

Not sure how they are going to be able to buy any more North Sea assets, unless the EGPC makes another hefty overdue receivables payments in the coming months. Issuing equity when its only effectively at current cash value ( & doesn't take into account Senegal payment or the value of Egypt embedded in the shares) would be daft & dilutive to everyone.

LOTM

[plasybryn] 23/5/2024 07:39

Strong confident AGM statement. Got the bit in their teeth.

[plasybryn] 22/5/2024 15:18

AGM on 24th May

[nigelpm] 03/5/2024 00:45

Blimey. I nailed that one!

[last of the mohicans] 02/5/2024 22:42

I'm truly Sorry to everyone who has bought in recently to MIRI, following me highlighting the company & asking people to take a look at it.

Yes I did know a fund raise was a possibility, but I didn't see it coming so soon & its slightly larger than the £5M max requirement that I thought they might needed.

The issue price is a disgrace quiet frankly, if that's the best the company can do with the pipeline of opportunities it has & all the hints its been giving through informal channels. The CEO has a lot of explaining to do & his position is in Jeopardy for sure after this, if not untenable.

Again my sincere apologies to everyone.

LOTM

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 07:14

All the best with it LOTM.

[last of the mohicans] 28/4/2024 11:17

Hi nigelpm,

Finance is certainly a possibility & I made that very clear in all that I said, although there business plan has them with enough cash to the end of August.

Doesn't mean to say it will come in the form of a placing either, they could issue say a 15% 1 year loan note,or possibly borrow it, depending on where there break even expectation is & how much more cash is needed.

My current believe is that they will need less than £5M of cash to get to that point how much less depends on how the revenue side is doing.

Hopefully the Annual Report sheds some light on the matter & we get the end of March numbers & further guidance.

LOTM

[nigelpm] 28/4/2024 10:23

They are going to need more cash and soon from my very quick glance at recent RNS.

Wait for the placing/financing first.