Capital Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 13/10/2020 07:39

Cracking set of numbers and update IMO

Non-drilling revenues rising which IMO is a very good thing. Consultancy work should be higher margin

4 more rigs heading into Africa Q4 2020

tending "increased materially" so market is growing.....

no reason the broker targets on utilisation can't be beaten IMO.....DYOR but crazy price after recent drop

[shanklin] 13/10/2020 07:32

Point taken gleach23

[rivaldo] 13/10/2020 07:16

Excellent Q3 trading update today - everything nicely on course. And with revenues and rig utilisation improving, and many new exploration contracts kicking in, CAPD should be near the top of the revenue guidance range for the year:



It's also good (and surprising?) to hear that Sukari operations are continuing as normal without disruption.

And there are "advanced discussions on a number of opportunities" in mining services....

[troc1958] 13/10/2020 07:14

Positive trading statement. Happy to continue holding. Hopefully the share price moves up from 64p at the opening.

[shanklin] 13/10/2020 07:14

So $100.4m revenue in the first three quarters. If they repeat Q3 revenue in Q4, and that seems pessimistic, they will be just above the middle of their £130-140m 2020 revenue estimate.

[gleach23] 12/10/2020 21:31

From the 28.5m shareholding, notified sales for him have been -

28/09/16 7.67m @48p via a placing leaving him with 15.4%
04/04/19 10m @48p via a placing* leaving 7.9%
16/10/19 4.65m @60p via a placing* leaving 4.5%

*remaining shares subject to a 6 month lock up, immediately after which he sells again. After the last placing he seems to have been selling in the open market and we have subsequently had 2 Major Holdings Notifications

06/05/20 3.8% left
18/09/20 3.0% left

It's therefore since April last year that he has sold the majority (16.7m shares) so he seems like a chap in a hurry.

[shanklin] 12/10/2020 20:14

So, selling about 6m per year with 4m to go

[gleach23] 12/10/2020 17:16

Prior to 28/09/16 he owned 28.5m shares (or 21.1%) and has been selling incessantly ever since. He's almost there and hopefully can be cleared out around this update, one way or another.

[shanklin] 12/10/2020 16:48

After the last RNS, Craig Burton still have circa 4m shares

[gleach23] 12/10/2020 16:30

Large chunk of 430k @ 64.5p reported just before the close

[adamb1978] 12/10/2020 16:15

Bought another 8000 at 64.5p today. I didnt think I was going to get the chance when I set myself the target of 65p a few weeks' back, but happily this time its worked out. Feels far to cheap given the underpinning of the balance sheet

[dangersimpson2] 12/10/2020 16:09

I have already accounted for the value of the listed and unlisted portfolio by taking its off the market cap to get an EV. The listed (that we know about) are currently worth $14.9m and I have assumed that the unlisted value is unchanged form 30th June at $11.3m. In the short term, most of the OCF will be re-invested into the growth opportunities for the business so I have also assumed a zero net cash balance in my EV calcs, as it was at 30th June.

[shanklin] 12/10/2020 15:49

Given CAPD’s approach of taking equity positions in min8ng companies, I would really like to see them buying back their own shares.

[qs99] 12/10/2020 15:40

good post mate

Add in the investment values/cash?

[dangersimpson2] 12/10/2020 15:39

It may be someone anticipating poor Q3 results, I'm not sure they are going to be that impressive since a lot of the recent contract wins will be really hitting their stride in Q4. However, it really feels like someone, and the strong assumption is that it is Craig Burton, is just selling at any price at the moment.

I struggle to see anyone selling on the current forward valuation who isn't a forced seller:


My Estimates FY20 FY21 FY22 Rig Utilisation % 59 65 70 Rig ARPOR $k 170 180 190 Mining Services Revenue $m 15.1 30.0 50.0 Total Revenue $m 135.4 170.4 211.2 EPS (p) 6.3 11.5 25.8 P/E 10.0 5.5 3.7 EBITDA $m 30.0 37.0 45.7 EV/EBITDA 2.9 2.3 1.9 Tamesis Rig Utilisation % 59 65 Rig ARPOR $k 170 175 Mining Services Revenue $m 17.9 30.8 Total Revenue $m 138.3 167.3 EPS (p) 10.8 8.5 P/E 5.9 7.4 EBITDA $m 32.4 40.1 EV/EBITDA 2.6 2.1

It is a shame that the company is presumably currently in a close period pending Q3 results since a major buyback at the current price would be significantly earnings enhancing.

[gleach23] 12/10/2020 14:21

Similar situation now @ 61-62, although there is a bit of stock about

[gleach23] 12/10/2020 12:24

It is rather shanklin, but at least we think we know why (Burton offloading), that all other indicators are positive and that we have a Q3 Trading Update due imminently (which may be being used to facilitate more of his offloading).

Managed to pick some up @ 63p on the spreads with IG although spreadex wouldn't give me a price and there were seemingly few shares available to buy online - hopefully an indicator that this is as low as the seller is prepared to go, which would be roughly consistent with the price Burton was getting this time a year ago.

I have asked investor relations for a date for the Trading Update in case they are willing to divulge.

[shanklin] 12/10/2020 12:05

Well this is a bit frustrating.

[dangersimpson2] 08/10/2020 10:25

Although I think it is mining services news that might be the source of broker upgrades, I am more excited by explo wins. Drilling contracts have almost double the gross margins of mining services and are significantly less capital intensive in that there will likely be unutilised rigs available to service these immediately. The only downside is the mobilisation time. Whereas a BH contract could last years, and mining services definitely will last years the explo contracts are more short term and require mobilisation. This is why we won't see utilisation above 80% even at the peak of the cycle (maybe 2022?)

[rivaldo] 08/10/2020 09:51

Excellent spot tightfist, cheers.

I sold some on the CEY news, but have managed to buy them back at a lower price now, so quite happy :o))

IMO there's a high probability of a big managed services contract announcement (or two), given all the recent interviews hinting at such, and there also seems to be a string of exploration programmes now being won.

[tightfist] 08/10/2020 08:19

Within this morning's RNS from Oriole: "We have recently signed a contract with Capital Limited for an initial 3,000 m diamond drilling programme at Bibemi, and are pleased to be working with a company which has been at the forefront in the development of work processes with a keen focus on the environment, health, safety and employee development. This maiden drill programme marks a significant step in Cameroon for the Oriole team and our partner BEIG3"..Have to recognise that they are well-known to each other, but nice, nevertheless.

[adamb1978] 07/10/2020 18:16

Surprised it broke below 70p however its not too far off where I'd add a few more. I dont think macro concerns are generally going to die down too much so can see the gold price remaining elevated enough for trading conditions for CAPD and its customers to be OK.

[dangersimpson2] 06/10/2020 15:31

Shows how much impact the overhang has had. The outlook today is significantly better than it was a year ago, yet the share price is at similar levels, and the EV lower if you consider the growth in the securities portfolio. Let's hope it clears soon.

[gleach23] 06/10/2020 15:12

Last year the Q3 Trading Update was 15th Oct with the share price in the 60s.

The next day a placing was announced @ 60p to facilitate Burton selling over 4m shares. He has just over 4m remaining per the recent Sept RNS. I wonder if they might do the same again?

[gleach23] 06/10/2020 13:57

Then there is Mr Burton who is hopefully also providing a good buying opportunity by seemingly reducing his stake in the open market?

Underlying spread is currently 68-68.25 with over 100k available to buy. Obviously the sooner he is out the better.