A great entry price if you believe Nevada can be sorted |
My honest perception is Jamie Boynton thought he had arrived before he had travelled and dropped the ball as a result.
So much to be positive about in transforming the business away from drilling. The MSALabs deal was fantastic. I understand the strategic shift away from Africa….yet price is lower than it was in 2020 and 2010.
Yes. Some dividends on the way but poor shareholders returns overall.
I think this is probably deeply undervalued but management really need to step up and prove they are capable of delivering shareholder returns. Over a 15 year period they have clearly failed.
I’ve never met JB or the boards so view is one of perception. |
Amazing that they’re so badly managed that they’re at a 40%+ discount to TBV.
Given all Jamie Boynton’s experience I’d like to think he can at least get the business doing better to the extent that the share price gets above TBV |
Disappointing update whilst I was on hols. Good to see the CEO essentially booted out - he's overseen a number of moves which whilst extremely promising in theory seem to have been badly executed or over-promised (Chrysos, mining services, USA growth).
However...perhaps this means the bad news/provisions are behind CAPD. Hopefully they've taken the opportunity to kitchen sink any bad news.
I note that Tamesis haven't yet released an update - presumably waiting for the upcoming prelims and further discussions with management.
On a £119m m/cap, CAPD's "net profit after tax for 2024....in the range of $18 - 20 million" and a $30m+ investment portfolio backing up a further 20% or so of that m/cap (plus the value of all the equipment) suggests CAPD remains good value imho.
Especially given the gold price being around all-time highs and prospects for the sector being so good, with geographic diversification offsetting Mali-type ups and downs. |
Work proesses that provide effective, safe, and profitable operations in Africa and elsewhere are a stuggle to implement on a rough neck workforce that "knows better". |
I would guess labour problems |
may i ask what's the problem with Nevada. I'm a bit out-of-date with this company |
Is this the thrid profit warning? I must admit I just have an inonsequential rump holding having been reducing for a good while. The big question is around Nevada still.
To answer my own question, possibly, possibly not. The trading update of 17 October did anounce the Belinga cessation, and MSALABS flat revenue YoY but did not adjust down revenue or profit and drilling was positive. Next two updates will be critical. |
Bit of a clearing of the decks and CEO falling on his sword probably is a good thing.
A lot of negatives were factored into the price. MSALABS is the quality part of the business.
Would like to see some of the profits they are generating in the portfolio recycled into another share buyback. |
On two yardsticks, P/E and Price to NAV its seems to be a bargain. Hope so anyway, as it's one of my bigger holdings. |
yasX, ironically, but of no benefit to shareholders, you have it the wrong way round. The cash from the investments has been a saving grace whilst the main business, in particular the expansion into Nevada, has struggled. |
NK104,
I pointed out the same to the clowns on this thread a few years ago - hoever, Rivaldo and his band of merry men told me I had it wrong and the brokers had valuations of over 150p. All contributors on here do is point out that the investment side of the business is doing well. Only if/when such illiquid holdings are sold do they have value since otherwise theyvremain holdings in speculative microcaps which usually end up hitting a brick wall. The market is cynical and rightly so. |
Clearly the market doesn't believe in CAPD's prospects, I guess we'll find out who's right with the next results. In the meantime it's certainly frustrating! |
Yea i feel your pain but logically we are incredibly well placed to benefit from this gold bull market without the risk of single country mining or the high valuation of gold streamers. These value funds that bought in know this |
Need to get their act together and sort out Nevada! |
Having held for c5 years the arguments around the share portfolio and its effect on the CAPD share price remain the same. I think there is value here but seriously the management need to get their collective act together and start to realise some shareholder value. Granted I could have sold above 100p on many occasions and made a nice turn, I didn't because I believed the shares remained undervalued. |
Sanu Gold's shares are up 12% overnight to C$0.28 after news that they've launched a new drilling programme (CAPD's holding is now worth £3.7m) - and you'll remember that CAPD are also the drilling contractors: |
True, not ascribed any value but converting to cash any time soon would be a big mistake imo.
CAPD's poor performance is mostly of its own making. Getting involved in contract mining that has brought new complications, lower margin work and the problem of purchasing and reselling lots of expensive kit that depreciates.
The water monitoring sideline remains to be seen whether it's worthwhile or not, but it would have been nice if that 'spare' $7m had been returned as a divi.
The investment portfolio is complementary to their day job. They get the chance to invest in early stage mining projects and are close enough to the companies and management to know a good prospect and get a good deal.
The greatest mistake would be to sell those projects too soon, just as a bull market in gold is getting going. I think the portfolio should just be held for as long as possible.
If the prospects and projects were good, the value will out. |
Problem is that these stakes not ascribed as having any value by the market. Now the market is hopefully completely wrong, but they don't have value unless they are converted into cash at some stage. |
Cheers Jeff H, I've added Apollo to the thread header summary. I note that Apollo are now trading at A$0.018, so CAPD are almost 30% up in just a few days!
As well as the WIA stake now worth £17.8m and SANU at £3.3m, the 150m shares in Asara have been steadily rising. They'e now at A$0.034 and so worth a further £2.6m. |
I previously posted (3338) Capital providing drilling for Apollo Minerals.
Phase 2 of the drilling programme has now commenced:-
....and Capital Limited have now taken a 6% stake in Apollo, investing about £400k:- |
Kaizenkid, certainly my estimate was too low - according to this CAPD now own 220m shares in WIA, as opposed to the 183m in the thread header, so they must have bought some more in a fundraising or on the market at some point:
So 220m shares at A$0.16 at the current 1.98 exchange rate means the shareholding is now worth £17.8m against CAPD's £151m m/cap.... |
I have that CAPD own 17.8% of WIA. WIA market cap is 138m in USD - so stake is worth $25m - 13% of the market cap. Either way its nice to have and offsets a decent chunk of the gross debt. |
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