Capital Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 18/4/2024 10:28

MSALABs momentum really building. As Mark Simpson has often noted the market will at some point count this as the most important part of the business. Ultimately though I think Capital is no different to every other London listed company in that it requires buybacks to drive the share price. What dividend advocates miss is that dividends, especially 6 monthly 1/3 2/3 destroy momentum and that and liquidity are key investor interest nowadays.

[chillpill] 18/4/2024 08:44

Just been reading the Tamesis note. They remain comfortable with their 160p PT.

There always remains the question whether Jamie and Rudd will sell down.

[rivaldo] 18/4/2024 08:37

Stifel state "1Q24 Sets Foundation for Strong 2024".

But subscription-only so no further detail:

[chillpill] 18/4/2024 07:34

Solid results.

As ever on results day they will probably trade down 5% in the first couple of hours!

[rivaldo] 18/4/2024 07:27

Today's update shows a steady as she goes Q1, ready for the big contracts commencing this Q2 at Belinga, Reqo Diq and Nevada.

Good to see guidance for the year being reiterated, and ARPOR increased markedly to an impressive $202,000. Excellent year on year growth at MSALabs/Chrysos and at Mining offset a little Q1 weakness in Drilling.

The picture for this quarter onwards remains excellent, with Q1 generally being a weaker quarter, whilst traders who bought recently will no doubt consider this quarter's results weren't exciting enough for them.

[rivaldo] 17/4/2024 14:27

Hello - 50,000 shares just bought at 95.34p, well above the 94p offer. Very keen.

Hardly surprising with the gold price now at $2,387.

[death by donut] 17/4/2024 10:21

could do with getting over that recent 94p .DbD

[davebowler] 17/4/2024 08:43

On Stockopedia CAPD is showing as a strong buy based on the Golden Cross chart formation.

[davebowler] 12/4/2024 15:38

htTPS://doceo.tv/insights/news/gold-is-dead-long-live-gold/

[hpcg] 09/4/2024 13:24

I agree. PDI likely to be taken out given the scale of its resource. Allied is a slightly different case, but an exuberant market should provide decent exit liquidity.

[adamb1978] 09/4/2024 08:46

Problem with the above is that there is no evidence that the market attributes any value to those investments.

The best thing for CAPD in relation to these would be if a higher gold price gives confidence to larger companies in the sector such that a wave of consolidation begins and these investee companies of CAPD get taken out.

Harder for the market to ignore cash, irrespective of what CAPD ultimately do with that cash

[robsy2] 09/4/2024 08:33

Thanks Darlocst
So we have side pocket gold investments worth 47m GBP as part of a company with a mcap of 176m GBP = 27% of market cap.
Nice.
R

[darlocst] 09/4/2024 08:15

Based on the detail in the FY presentation (p15) & taking the change in share prices since year end of WIA (100%), Allied Gold (19%) & Predictive (22.5%) and assuming that the remaining others in portfolio are unchanged then I make the current value of investments to be circa $60m versus year end value of $47.2m.

[robsy2] 09/4/2024 07:54

Thanks Rivaldo , very positive .
I note that at the year end :
CAPD Investments: Year on year portfolio growth:

· The total value of investments (listed and unlisted) was $47.2 million as at 31 December 2023 ($38.7 million as at 31 December 2022) including net cash investments of $4.6 million; and

· The portfolio continues to be focused on a select few key holdings with our holdings in Predictive Discovery, Allied Gold Corp and WIA Gold comprising the majority (~85%) of our investments.

I am wondering what the value of these holdings are now? I am trying to work out how much gold exposure I have with my holding in CAPD with Mcap at 176m GBP .

[rivaldo] 09/4/2024 07:37

With the gold price now up to almost $2,350, three of CAPD's larger investees rose nicely yesterday.

PDI were up around 6.5% to new recent highs, Allied Gold up another 4% and WIA Gold up 6%.

A very rough calculation puts CAPD's overnight gain from these movements (allowing guesswork for the Allied Gold holding) at say £2m.

[davebowler] 08/4/2024 01:12

hTTps://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-price-forecast-major-breakout-new-bull-market-confirmed-1421377

[theapiarist] 04/4/2024 10:22

Good article, rivaldo.

[rivaldo] 03/4/2024 11:41

Good to see large investee Allied Gold up 9% overnight to $3.93, presumably on high gold prices, which is the highest since last December:

Article about MSALabs looking at global expansion not posted here before:

[rivaldo] 27/3/2024 06:50

Mea culpa time....I've been further researching CAPD's holding in Awale. Although at one point it appears that CAPD's holding actually increased further to 13.33m shares from the 8.33m I previously noted, in 2021 there was an 8 for 1 share consolidation. So, assuming CAPD even still own their shares in Awale, the holding is likely now worth less than £1m.

I am however sure about CAPD's investment in WIA Gold, which keeps rising and is worth almost £8m.

[rivaldo] 26/3/2024 10:28

Cash from operations last year was a huge $84.3 million - up by 20.8% from 2022. This year will likely see more cap.ex in gearing up for the recent large contract wins, but this should fall considerably after that.

ARPOR was up by 3.3% last year.

Tamesis's forecasts have consistently been conservative and had to be upgraded during recent years. I'd hope that this pattern will continue.

[qs99] 26/3/2024 09:02

Riv: just took a look, thoughts.

only 8% increase in average rev per rig '21-26, surely they should be using inflation excuse to put up their prices on assumption utilisation is constant?

EBITDA margin is down 4pts in same period, could be them holding "some in reserve" to beat the market, let's hope so as that makes no sense given MLABS etc etc higher margin

Not a lot of FCF, could focus on getting debt lower so savings in interest cost can allow share buybacks or divis.

views?

[qs99] 26/3/2024 08:53

And will look at Research Tree, thanks for pointer

[qs99] 26/3/2024 08:53

legend, thanks and apologies I missed it, appreciate you taking the time mate nice one. Holding a decent chunk, just considering a new addition....

[rivaldo] 26/3/2024 08:35

QS99, if you read prior posts the info is all there! I subscribe to Research Tree, but non-subscribers might access Tamesis' latest note here?



In summary, in Mining Services the Sukari wind down is offset by the increasing operations at Belinga. Meanwhile Drilling and MSALabs are thriving.

Revenues are forecast to rise 12.5% this year and EBITDA by 7.5% with PBT and debt declining slightly, whilst cash from operations will be a whopping $104.9m.

Adjusted EPS is forecast at 18.7c EPS this year, rising to 21.3c next year - a P/E of 5.4.

And of course the $47m+ investment portfolio offsets much of the debt.