Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 13/3/2024 07:21

You can register to watch CAPD's post-results LSE presentation at 9.00 am tomorrow. Which I assume means the 2023 results will be tomorrow morning (following the positive year end trading update).

Broker consensus is usefully noted in today's RNS - pretty handy against a £175m m/cap and with an additional $50m or so of quoted investments in hand:



"Capital Limited consensus summary - 14th March 2024: Below is a company compiled consensus summary, reflecting the estimates of our covering analysts. Analysts include Peel Hunt, Stifel, Canaccord Genuity and Tamesis.

FY23 Consensus ($m)

Revenue 318.4

EBITDA (adjusted for IFRS 16 leases) 89.2

Operating profit 55.1

Net profit after tax (Adjusted for investment gain/(loss) 35.3

Net Debt 71.7"

[rivaldo] 11/3/2024 08:46

The gold price has surged to almost $2,180. WIA Gold rose again to $0.065, so CAPD's holding is worth £6m+. And Allied Gold is at last on a decent run, up another 4% to $3.32 (though still some way behind the $4.45 IPO price).

[rivaldo] 07/3/2024 15:15

Apiarist, I've regularly updated the shareholdings in the header post since I set up the thread, and others have contributed details too, so (without guarantees!) most of the shareholdings should be pretty accurate. Obviously the value of those holdings shifts up and down considerably over time.

The exception is Allied Gold, as post-IPO there doesn't appear to be any public record of CAPD's holding. I'd guess this alone is still worth anywhere from $7m-$10m at Allied's share price today (which is currently bouncing, presumably on the back of the gold price as well as recent results and presentations).

[theapiarist] 07/3/2024 12:27

Thanks Rivaldo. The details in the heading appear to be from 2019 and I was wondering if you or anyone else has something more recent.

The current value of the PDI holding is £24 million (assuming 200 million shares and ignoring any options).

The 2022 annual report lists PDI as comprising ca 50% of the total portfolio value.

Therefore I don't suppose a ballpark figure of £50 million for the 100% would be far off the mark.

Or 30% of the market cap.

Given the bombed out state of many of the junior gold miners and the buoyant price of gold, it would come as little surprise to me if this figure rose to 40% or more.

Almost to the point were CAPD becomes a Gold Mining Investment Trust with a mining service provider attached.

I jest of course.

[qs99] 07/3/2024 12:01

Thanks Riv, we are on the same page then!

Appreciate the heads up re Tamesis note as well, looks like market have liked it, bodes well for results IMO

DYOR and gla
Cheers
QS99

[adamb1978] 07/3/2024 10:13

Yes, still looks exceedingly cheap but think they need to focus more on cash generation in order for the value to properly be realised. Tapering net debt towards zero over say 2-3 years should be possible.

Would also be good if they could demonstrate some of their ROCE for big slugs of capex, or how quickly capex is effectively recouped from profits on contracts.

[hpcg] 07/3/2024 10:11

AAUC has been a disappointment since listing, though forward, like most other junior gold miners, it looks cheapish. There is very little institutional holding according to data on Yahoo Finance.

[rivaldo] 07/3/2024 09:54

Tamesis appear to have raised their 2023 forecasts recently, and before next week's results?

Comparing today's note to their last detailed note on October 18th they now forecast:

19.8c EPS (previously 18.5c EPS)
$37.8m PAT (previously $35.5m)

That's now 15.6p EPS for a historic P/E at 89.9p of just 5.8.

Plus an EV/EBITDA of only 2.8 and 37.9c operating cashflow per share.

And around a $50m portfolio of investments to further back up tangible NAV and offset borrowings.

Tamesis retain their 160p target price.

TheApiarist, see the thread header post for details of CAPD's investment portfolio - it needs updating as the holding in Allied Gold is now quoted as a listed company and is therefore entirely liquid from a CAPD perspective.

[adamb1978] 07/3/2024 08:49

Tamesis note out today available for free on Research Tree

Interesting line that I wholeheartedly agree with:

" the only issue with revenue growth is the difficulty attached to forecasting alongside the capex requirement which we discuss below"

[theapiarist] 06/3/2024 09:39

Rivaldo

The last trading update showed that 85% of the capital investment comprised WIA, PDI and AAUC.

Do you have the full details of their portfolio?

Thanks in advance.

[rivaldo] 05/3/2024 07:39

The gold price has surged above $2,115 this morning.

And two of CAPD's larger investee companies saw good overnight price rises:

- PDI rose 7% to A$0.23 and are near all-time highs (CAPD's holding is worth £23.5m)
- WIA Gold rose 24% to A$0.063 (CAPD's holding is worth £6m)

Absolutely QS99, higher sector revenues/gold prices together with the rosy long-term prospects for gold pricing will surely help in terms of financing potential for both new projects and decisions as to whether to expand existing projects. Thus more and more work for CAPD.

[qs99] 04/3/2024 16:15

Would have thought POG increase would help CAPD on projects as well as equity holdings no? Likewise weak $ achieving the same across other commodities? DYOR

[rivaldo] 04/3/2024 07:36

The gold price is now above a noteworthy $2,080.

Also, an interesting RNS from Intertek this morning. They've acquired Base Met Labs, a minerals testing business with a focus on gold, copper and other critical metals. No consideration was disclosed, and Base is relarively small with £7.8m turnover, but Intertek make positive noises about the sector as follows, which should reflect well on the prospects for MSALabs and Chrysos:

"André Lacroix, Chief Executive Officer of Intertek, said: "There is no doubt that, with a growing population and the rise in demand for raw materials, the requirement for leading ATIC solutions at every stage of the minerals and mining supply chain globally is increasing rapidly."

[tightfist] 01/3/2024 08:15

For chart watchers, do I note an inverted H&S forming?

[rivaldo] 27/2/2024 10:25

Good to see the share price inching up a little to the current 88p bid.

Cheers rogash, here's a link. Nice PR about MSALabs helping define "the world’s largest rare earth metal deposit":



Extracts:

"Now, MSALABS is turning to expansion in North America where it has a $145 million, five-year contract with the world’s largest gold producer, the Nevada Gold Complex run by Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX; NYSE: ABX) and Newmont (NYSE: NEM; TSX: NGT). The analysis company is promoting a centralized lab concept there for geologists to reduce turnaround time and save money. It will use three PhotonAssay units to serve the site’s 12 open-pit and 10 underground mines.
PhotonAssay

MSALABS, whose global customer roster also includes Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A/TECK.B; NYSE: TECK), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) and Kinross Gold (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC), was the first to offer the patented PhotonAssay analysis in Africa and Canada. It is rapid and more precise than the traditional fire assay process where there’s risk of contamination and gold loss."

"MSALABS began using PhotonAssay at Barrick’s Bulyanhulu gold mine in Tanzania in 2021. It has installed nine units across operations in Canada and Africa and intends to deploy 21 units globally by next year, making it by far the largest provider of the technology. Barrick is replacing its fire assay setups globally with 11 PhotonAssay units under agreement with MSALABS."

"It has a global network of 27 laboratories in key mining regions including Canada, the United States, Latin America, Africa and Europe. Other clients include Canada’s largest gold producer, Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM; NYSE: AEM), Victoria Gold (TSXV: GCX), the Yukon’s only gold producer, and successful East Coast explorer New Found Gold (TSXV: NFG; NYSE-AM: NFGC).

Labs can also be found at Barrick’s Kibali gold mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kinross’ Tasiast gold mine in Mauritania and Shanta Gold’s (LSE: SHG) Singida gold mine in Tanzania.

MSALABS has recently completed its newest laboratory in Marsa Alam, Egypt, supporting the renaissance of the Egyptian mining industry. The next facility will be just on the other side of the Arabian Nubian shield at the Jabal Sayid mine, a joint venture by Saudi state mining company Ma’aden and Barrick."

[rogash] 23/2/2024 08:28

A bit of a write up on MSALABS on mining.com

[calougra2000] 14/2/2024 16:02

thanks @hpcg, good point, my assumption etc etc.

[hpcg] 14/2/2024 12:32

That's the drilling calougra, we were talking about the rock moving. My understanding from Centamin's releases (I'm not an investor there so I don't have extensive knowledge) that that contract was a one-off for an areal expansion and they will carry one with the conventional operations.

[calougra2000] 14/2/2024 12:21

Sukari contract extended.

hxxps://im-mining.com/2024/01/19/capital-in-line-for-another-five-years-of-drilling-at-centamins-sukari/

[hpcg] 21/1/2024 21:39

From what I understood is was a one off project with a particular goal. Centamin were pretty adamant in their announcement that that was the end of it.

[adamb1978] 20/1/2024 18:32

Is there any chance Sukari might get extended beyond the initial term? I dont know whehther an 'earth moving' contract is largely finite, as opposed to a mining contract which presumably can last as long as the mine does

[hpcg] 20/1/2024 14:12

Dan - Loss of Sukari is in the price, and Ivinido is in to replace it, though it is less than half the revenue, so not completely. The anomaly, if you will, is when both are running at the same time, i.e. the next 2 quarters. Contract was $235-260mn over 4 years, and they will finish moving the 120Mt about 6 months early. There will also be assets to dispose of afterwards if they don't have another contract to go to. Ideally that goes in to share buy backs or reducing debt or some combination.

[adamb1978] 19/1/2024 12:23

I'm quite bullish on the markets, or at least small caps Fozzie. Owning good, cash generative companies on attractive valuations will pay off eventually. You can't own all AIm or small caps as there's too much dross - just need to own good companies.

Ignore traders. Nothing wrong with trading at all, but no point comparing yourself with something which you are not, and also online traders are probably more disengenuous with the trust than others

[fozzie] 19/1/2024 11:06

Waiting is all I seem to do Adam 🤔 I am sure I hold stocks with enormous potential but this market over the last two plus years has been brutal. My ltbh strategy completely wrong. I should have sold everything in Jan 22 and become a trader like everyone else.