Canadian Overseas Petrol... Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 05/3/2021 08:28

Oil price up Gold price down things seem to be reversing.

[blueblood] 05/3/2021 08:13

PoO must be increasing value of the Atomic deal by the day. Was way undervalued at agreement and probably added 40-50% since. The only thing holding this back is Art's lack of delivery on timescales. The new finance guy is onboard however and leading this and once completed by 15th March should see 1p+ in quick order imo

[hazl] 05/3/2021 08:05

Thanks you have always been a fountain of knowledge in this area.

[edgein] 05/3/2021 07:55

Hazl,

Yes indeed, these large after hours buys have been reported pretty much every day since the HSBC TR1 here. I expect the pattern to continue through to financial close and the start of the re-rate here. Given the oil price and amount of liquids reserves that come with this acquisition this small rise isn't the start of the re-rate yet.

Regards,
Ed.

[hazl] 05/3/2021 07:45

Hope so edgein!


Thanks for the welcome.



That ought to read yesterday afternoon of course.

[hazl] 05/3/2021 07:32

I think oil is going to increase in price for next few months according to futures forecasts.
So I got back in today in to COPL on the dip.

IMO

[edgein] 05/3/2021 07:18

Sport,

Good man, nice that they have confirmed the March 15th closing date for you. Not much more than a week to go now. Exciting times. Oil remaining strong at around $60/bbl while most countries are still on lock-down. Brent currently heading for $70/bbl too.

Bring it on!

Regards,
Ed.

[georgia103] 04/3/2021 21:19

Nice after hours buys 9.5 million

[x1000] 04/3/2021 18:20

"Expecting" or "will be" on 15th?

[sportbilly1976] 04/3/2021 15:56

emailed contact on Company website and had reply back expecting deal completion March 15th :)

Oil up 4% currently, through $66/bbl

[sportbilly1976] 04/3/2021 08:53

6 more trading days until Atomic completion...summary posted on LSE board

THE ATOMIC DEAL
Over 5% being held by HSBC
COMPLETION DATE 15/3 AS STATED IN THIS INVESTOR PRESENTATION:
hxxp://www.canoverseas.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COPL-Atomic-Corporate-Acquisition-Presentation-02-21.pdf
Two operated oil fields: the Barron Flats Shannon Unit (57.7% WI) and Cole Creek Unit (66.7% WI) located in the Powder River Basin in the State of Wyoming, USA:
· Current production rate of 1,400 bbls/d (gross) rising to 5,000 bbls/d (gross) in 2022 and c.7,000 bbls/d (gross) in 2026 (2P reserve case, Ryder Scott Report).
ROAD MAP TO OWNERSHIP OF ATOMIC
• Deposit (non-refundable): $1 million - COMPLETE
• Initial Debt-Financed Payment: $8 million for 15% of Atomic's Working Interest in all of its leasehold on or before December 31, 2020. - COMPLETE
· (Note: If the acquisition does not complete, the Company will retain this interest)
• Assumed Debt: $26 million at closing – FINANCE APPROVED PENDING COMPLETION OF AUDIT
• Total Additional Debt and Cash: $15 million at closing – FINANCE APPROVED PENDING COMPLETION OF AUDIT
• COPL Common Shares to Atomic Shareholder(s): $4 million priced at closing – TO BE ISSUED AT CLOSE OF DEAL.
VALUE TO COPL
Total Cost $54m
Estimated share price on completion of purchase of Atomic : 1-2p
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSET
- Roll out tripling of the gas injection programme at Barron flats
- Drilling cole creek plans
- Production ramp up - monthly updates expected all positive incline so no surprises but each one adds to the market cap and net worth
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER OWNERS OF THE OIL FIELDS?
There are good reasons to believe that a 100% purchase the asset is possible.
- NOP (in financial distress) buyout would take us to 85%
- Chinese own 15% (being forced to sell by US Govt)
There is a $20m accordion facility built into the finance agreement which may be earmarked for this very purpose.
DOES COPL HAVE ANY OTHER POSSIBLE REVENUE STREAMS?
The Atomic deal came as a huge and very welcome surprise to the shareholders. The main reason that we had been holding was for the expectation that COPL’s interest in OLP226, a large offshore asset in Nigeria, being developed.
1 - PSR is assumed - no evidence to state it will not be agreed. It has been delayed several times however most shareholders would agree that it is likely to still occur.
2 - Oil is found already, next to a producing prolific field - drill planned is appraisal not exploration
3 - Essar want a rapid ROI to date on $70m exploration spend - can spend a lot, drilling costs very low and would want to capitalise on that asap - COPL are carried
4 - Nigeria have much to gain from their oil assets getting to production.
With 60k bopd assumed production
COPL share at 15% (5% with option to increase)
Oil at $40/b
tax 70%
lifting costs $20/b

This equals $19.4m net profit p.a
mc $331m
Note: Oil is currently approx. $60 per barrel.

[ride daice] 04/3/2021 08:45

I'll be much more content once the G&G wages are being paid from production rather than placings.

[sportbilly1976] 03/3/2021 15:16

Looks a good entry point to me here...on rising support line.

just one MM left on 36

[blueblood] 03/3/2021 09:01

7 trading days max before Atomic rocket...

[sportbilly1976] 02/3/2021 17:29

given the traded prices today, looks like a 20mln & 47.5mln worked sell

[sportbilly1976] 02/3/2021 15:56

.371 buy price now.

clearly a seller to shift at this .37/.38 level before we move into the 40's.

hopefully we can clear this before the Atomic news breaks

[sportbilly1976] 02/3/2021 11:43

games a-playin'?

was .372 to buy, then a 7mln and 8mln trade which look like sells roll through...now .3738 to buy just 500k and can sell a few mln at .371

[sportbilly1976] 02/3/2021 10:56

who is providing the stock here? continual buying at .372

[sportbilly1976] 02/3/2021 10:15

.3719 current buy price, so still plenty of appetite for them

[blueblood] 02/3/2021 10:09

Just hope Art delivers for once. Actually all the signs are looking very positive and once final hurdle is removed I hope he starts getting the story and the fantastic deal he's done out into the open. Proactive interviews etc!

[sportbilly1976] 02/3/2021 07:57

Indeed Ed - my quick working is around a further 18-20mln or so taken by HSBC

Almost got there yesterday, hopefully we see a foot (or two) into the 40's today

[blueblood] 02/3/2021 07:51

Great minds lol! HSBC still buying and gone over 5% now. Fantastic opportunity this for easy bagger plus this month.

[edgein] 02/3/2021 07:12

Sport,

Yeah no surprises there for sure. Little guys still willing to fill the large orders. I see HSBC is adding some more with the new TR1. They're making sure they have plenty before the closing of the Atomic deal.

Regards,
Ed.

[sportbilly1976] 01/3/2021 17:10

There we go - 75.6mln trade at 0.365p

almost 200mln in a few days now

edit - could well be the daily spreadbet trade.

the 2x 20mln and 2x 25mln ones though aren't...and with the prices imo are buys

[edgein] 01/3/2021 14:02

Sport,

I wouldn't be too shocked to see more delayed buys after hours over the next two weeks that's for sure.

Regards,
Ed.