Recovery play |
Have added today, can see a move back to 4p PDQ on a bit of volume, it's tough getting any stock however ! |
Buyers returning, market starting to factor in oversold technical's + strong 2nd half sales forecasts. |
That 1.8m off market buy has taken the overhang out entirely.
Premium now being asked for small lines of stock, been an age since this happened. |
Gentlemen
The time is right to BUY or ADD this stock, the price has fallen from 4.4p to current on thin volume and indicators suggest it is majorly oversold.
Having perused/listened to the recent interim results, director and broker commentaries, it is clear the shares are materially miss priced.
The cash balance at end FY is expected to be £5m, trading from period close to financial year end is expected to be buoyant, current market value is a mere £6.7m !
Keen followers will know the shares are a thin market and move disproportionally. |
The company has £5 million in the bank. This is an incredible debt free growing business. |
The pattern of late buying has been ongoing for a long time, usually batches of 100k/200k/300k shares.
The BOD is the thinnest on AIM, only 3 persons, an interim CEO + 2 Non Execs, all the credentials for this company to be absorbed into a larger player, possibly why the former CEO and CFO departed in recent times.
Building a reasonable stake below radar would not be easy but tactically block buys towards market close is one route, exactly what has been happening.
Under radar, under promoted, under valued, a perfect recipe for a bid. |
The company should pay the surplus cash to shareholders as a special dividend. That will drive up the share price by 50% instantly. |
 Gentlemen
The Gracious Fellow has perused the recent results and wishes to comment.
Cambridge is performing excellently from an operational perspective, the slight fall in revenue for the HY has been explained, it is due to operational improvement leading to buyers destocking due to Cambridge being able to supply on time with confidence, this is a one off situation.
Moving ahead the company anticipates a strong second half.
The Gracious Fellow notes the ongoing apparent share price manipulation by a plethora of tiny sell trades across each trading day, aim being to depress the share price and quell sentiment, in the meantime large buys appear after hours, make of it what you will.
The current EV of CNSL sits at a pathetic £2m which makes the company a very juicy candidate for takeover. According to Cavendish CNSL will end the year with a £5m cash balance, currently Cambridge is valued at £6.75m.
Readers may wish to take advantage of the weak share price, one cannot rule out a bid pitched way beyond current levels. |
Could this be a good time for a trade, the RSI sits at a 14 month low, the shares have fallen from 4.4p reached in July to 2.85p but on very low volume.
Recent results & Co presentation event were upbeat, EBITDA profitable, cash is forecast to be £5m at year end, current m/cap is just £6.75m.
The stock is illiquid & moves disproportionally on modest volume. |
Nothing bad in the recent presentation event of a few weeks ago to justify a near 20% fall since.
Presentation link here.... |
There is no liquidity in the stock hence it can move disproportionally either way on thin volume.
With 237m shares in issue the current m/cap is £6.8m, the cash position at end of this FY is estimated to be £5m
The drop appears overdone. |
Anyone buying into this share will lose at least 11% because of the wide spread immediately. MMs don't do investors any favour. Long term investors only. |
Thank you thecoyone.
Personally I think it should be pursuing a huge counterclaim. Pleadings are public documents I believe, it would be interesting to see the counterclaim. |
Just watched the presentation, the team seem very happy with things generally, in respect of the DHSC claim still no movement however it appears they are being more dynamic in trying to conclude the matter, in a broker note today it was re-iterated that CNSL have no liability and are pursuing a significant counter claim.
Clearly if this matter was resolved it would be very beneficial for all concerned, in the meantime they are getting on with driving sales into H2.
The meeting was not the usual 1 hour and Q&A, despite them suggesting there were lots of questions, was very short.
It appears they are appointing a new marketing team, as the question was asked about the woeful PR, only time will tell.
In general they remain upbeat and suggest the company is materially undervalued, a bit like at the last results event. |
What has happened with the DHSC claim and counterclaim? Can someone kindly advice if it comes up at the Presentation. I am not available for 4pm |
Bid has now fallen from 3.6p at open to 3p on just £12k of sells.
It will be interesting to see what they say in the presentation event at 4pm today, when you look at the numbers they do not look worthy of such a drop is the SP, last years H1 sales were inflated as we all know due to an order backlog in Q4 previous year, the company seems to be making all the right moves.
This outfit desperately needs to improve it's PR, no-one has a clue what is going on beyond results statements, they are expanding across numerous territories but why so secretive?
Cavendish continue to suggest the company is materially undervalued, 10p target, maybe a takeover approach will deliver a value event and exit strategy for the bulls. |
On the cash front , it is worth noting that Cavendish ( and indirectly CNSL's own budget forecasts ) is expecting £5m net cash at year end in March , 2025 . Whilst this is down £0.4m on last year's figure , it is all because of £0.6m extra capital expenditure this year , which the company is spending on system and process upgrades .
As shown today , this investment is already paying off in an improving gross margin , which should mean that when sales pick up , as expected , more and more revenue will fall to the bottom line . |
Disappointing numbers for first 6 months. Not really seeing any growth at moment. Looks like we will have to wait another 6 months to see if they can actually meet expectations for full year with sustainable growth. Not surprised to see share price back to 3p. Very frustrating. |
The prediction about the share price was wrong unfortunately. |
Cavendish have re-iterated their target price of 10p a share this morning, suggest the company is moving towards a growth phase having now reorganised the business. |
Very positive results today with EBITDA profitable at half year which is usually their weakest period, cash was also ahead of H1 2023, margins improved again, suggestions of a strong 2nd half.
What's not to like, bring on the re-rate, broker says 10p a share. |
Cavendish note this AM is suggesting revenues of £8.8m for the year to March , 2025 ( previously £9.4m ) but is maintaining its EBITDA forecast of £0.4m thanks to a near 3 percentage point improvement in gross margins . CNSL is continuing to invest in further operational improvements as well as sales & marketing despite the Q1 sales hiccup , which was all about destocking . |
I did not realise this outfit is being bashed hysterically over on LSE, that has to be a good sign, how can you bash a company that has exceeded market expectations over the last 12 months, has cash of £5m, is EBITDA profitable and valued at only £8.3m ? |
Just £3k of shares on offer with IG currently then they want a premium, a number of retail platforms are 'at best' on any size buy.
The drop in the bid is 'false' looks like they are fishing for stock. |
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