Cambria Automobiles Investors - CAMB

Cambria Automobiles Investors - CAMB

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Cambria Automobiles Plc CAMB London Ordinary Share GB00B4R32X65 ORD 10P
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
-1.00 -1.79% 55.00 16:35:09
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
57.50 56.00 57.50 55.00 56.00
more quote information »
Industry Sector
GENERAL RETAILERS

Top Investor Posts

DateSubject
15/6/2016
00:30
davidosh: The chairman has been buying... Http://www.investegate.co.uk/cambria-automobiles--camb-/rns/director-dealing/201606141730491981B/
29/4/2016
10:14
stepone68: Hi Buffy, okay you got me :-), but I do think that Cambria is the motor dealer of choice just now for the private investor, and that the price may have got a bit ahead of itself as a result. Another pretty significant drop today... StepOne
07/3/2016
10:00
ed 123: Ta, stepone68. :-) Yes, I got that but I think the answer is that, in the second paragraph, the word "Trading" is being used to mean "Profit", whereas the third paragraph is refering to sales volume. Probably, it's a good trading update. It's a shame they did not express it in clear English. I'm sure management understand what's going on, but they need to convey it, without ambiguity, to present and potential investors.
17/2/2016
15:47
theclangers: Ten small-cap shares to tempt growth investors: Stockopedia set out to create a "growth stars" screen for Interactive Investor. Crucially, we were looking for companies with positive historical and forecast growth trends. These measures are brought together in the Growth Rank score, which ranks the growth profile of every company in the market from zero (poor) to 100 (excellent). The other rank we used is the Stock Rank, which ranks each company for a combination of its quality, value and momentum, again based on common financial ratios. (Cambria tops the list) Name Market Cap (£m) 3 year EPS compound annual growth rate (%) Growth Rank Stock Rank Sector Cambria Automobiles 82 32.1 92 99 Consumer Cyclicals
19/1/2016
13:11
theclangers: graham, I think the discount to other car dealers will/should narrow the bigger we get. As the market cap gets bigger it will attract the attention of more/bigger institutional investors which in itself is self fulfilling. With low priced oil attributing to lower fuel prices, a very low interest rate environment, it all bodes well for car sales growth. Also the raw materials to make cars has never been cheaper, the market is flooded with cheap steel, plastic is also cheap now with low oil. Car makers should be able to offer some mouth watering deals soon. Another factor not to be dismissed is the rising population in the UK. Recently we have had a large influx of immigration, most of them would have been adults of drive-able age. Personally I can't see the end of growing car sales for quite a bit of time yet. In fact because of the above, when it filters down, car sales will BOOM.
04/1/2016
00:15
davidosh: Cambria are positively mentioned in this audiocast and I cover the year behind us and stocks to consider for the year ahead... hTTp://qualitysmallcaps.co.uk/investor-interviews/david-stredder-3-jan-2016-interview-with-paul-scott/
26/11/2015
10:44
davidosh: Yesterdays smallcap radio show and a new feature 'One to watch' Cambria are discussed at the very start of the programme... hTTps://audioboom.com/boos/3854233-the-small-cap-investors-with-carmensfella
05/7/2015
08:41
vaneric: I've been in the motor trade for over sixty years, I've seen so many of these come and go always ending up broke, their investors money down the drain.
04/7/2015
09:58
effortless cool: I believe that Cambria Automobiles (CAMB) is currently materially undervalued (58.5p), will significantly beat broker forecasts and will benefit from substantial broker upgrades of future year results. In its own words: “Cambria was established in 2006 with a strategy to build a balanced motor retail group through close cooperation with our manufacturer partners and the self-funded acquisition and turnaround of underperforming businesses”. As set out below, it seems to be executing this strategy admirably well. It currently operates 29 dealerships representing 46 franchises and 18 brands across the UK. Cambria is a simple business – it sells new and used cars and provides after sales services on them. Its accounts are simple too, showing consistent ratios and trends, with a clear and reliable seasonality (H2 is better than H1), albeit complicated by the effect of acquisitions. New car sales is the fastest growing area of the business, increasing at 16% per annum (after adjusting for acquisitions) and is just overtaking used car sales as the largest segment. It is also, unfortunately, the segment with the lowest gross margin, varying between 6-7%. It would, however, seem reasonable to assume that it is a more reliable source of aftersales service than used cars. Used car sales have a higher gross margin (9.0-9.5%) but a lower growth rate (6% per annum, after adjustment for acquisitions). After sales service is by far the highest margin segment (40-43%) but is also the smallest and the slowest growing at just 1% per annum, after adjusting for acquisitions. The gradual deterioration in business mix described above is more than countered by the overall growth in the business, combined with the high operational gearing. Administrative expenses have dropped from 13.0% of revenue in 2012 H1 to 10.6% in 2015 H1. This trend has been helped by periodic acquisitions – one a year in 2013 to 2015. A Land Rover/Jaguar dealership generating revenues of £46m per annum was acquired in July 2014. This was anticipated to be “significantly earnings enhancing” in the current financial year. A further Land Rover franchise generating revenue of £32m was acquired in May 2015, so does not yet contribute to any published figures. This was anticipated to be “immediately earnings enhancing”. Acquisitions have been financed through cash and debt, and the company has historically been very frugal with it equity capital. It did, however, grant 5m options to staff recently, exercisable from January 2020 at 47p. The balance sheet is not conventionally strong, showing negative net current assets. However, this is just a reflection of the working capital characteristics of the business and Cambria has consistently generated cash in recent years through more efficient working capital management. Cambria is a relatively small company, with a market capitalisation of £58.5m at 58.5p. It is only covered by one broker – N+1 Singer – and their forecasts fall well short of my projections. For 2015, the broker forecasts revenue of £514.4m and pre-tax profit of £7.35m; my equivalent figures are £526.5m and £8.36m. The discrepancies for 2016 are even greater, with broker forecasts of £553.5m revenue and £8.35m PTP significantly lagging my projections of £587.0m and £10.64m, respectively. I am as confident as one can be that we will see an “ahead of market expectations” announcement in Cambria in due course. The company pays a small but progressive dividend and should be highly cash generative over the period of my projections. Projected net cash of £15.7m at end-2016 easily provides scope for further bolt-on acquisitions. Note also that Cambria is 40% owned by its Chief Executive, which I regard as a major positive. I tend to value companies based on their projected earnings for the following two half years (2015 H2 and 2016 H1, in this case), adjusted for net cash at the end of the period and any potential dilution from options, etc. For Cambria, my target prospective PE ratio is quite low at 10, reflecting the fact that it is cyclical business at a favourable period of its cycle. I am forecasting 7.04p EPS. This gives a target price of 75.9p, after adjusting for net cash, dividends and options. This represents a 30% premium to the current share price. I have made a serious commitment on this share, buying 203.5k at an average of 59.0p. (Since increased to 272.7k at an average of 58.7p on 9/7/15). [Earlier updates transferred to post 1] ======================= Update 29 December 2019 ======================= I have finally caught up with my modelling here after a gap of over two and a half years. Updated forecasts are as follows, along with latest consensus (where available) in brackets: # Revenue ............... 2020: £684.5m (£678.6m), ... 2021: £696.5m (£696.4m) # Reported net profit ... 2020: £10.1m, .............. 2021: £10.1m # Adjusted net profit ... 2020: £10.1m (£9.9m), ...... 2021: £10.1m (£10.0m) # Reported EPS .......... 2020: 10.1p, ............... 2021: 10.1p # Adjusted EPS .......... 2020: 9.6p (9.9p), ........ 2021: 9.7p (10.0p) # DPS ................... 2020: 1.20p (1.10p), ....... 2021: 1.30p (1.10p) # Net cash .............. 2020: £4.3m, ............... 2021: 7.5m Applying a PE ratio of 10, I get an adjusted valuation of 91.1p. At a 32% premium to today's price of 69.0p, I rate this a STRONG BUY. A key factor here is that my forecasts include capex of £7.5m per half year. This reflects the planned investment in the estate. This reduces my valuation, as cash is lower than it would otherwise be, but provides a strong platform to drive revenue growth beyond the projection period. ======================= Update 12 January 2020 ======================= A further quick revision based on the AGM trading update. Updated forecasts are as follows, along with latest consensus (where available) in brackets: # Revenue ............... 2020: £659.6m (£682.5m), ... 2021: £685.1m (£697.4m) # Reported net profit ... 2020: £10.5m, .............. 2021: £10.1m # Adjusted net profit ... 2020: £10.1m (£9.7m), ...... 2021: £10.7m (£9.8m) # Reported EPS .......... 2020: 10.5p, ............... 2021: 10.7p # Adjusted EPS .......... 2020: 10.0p (9.7p), ........ 2021: 10.2p (9.8p) # DPS ................... 2020: 1.20p (1.05p), ....... 2021: 1.30p (1.05p) # Net cash .............. 2020: £3.8m, ............... 2021: 8.3m Maintaining a PE ratio of 10, I get an adjusted valuation of 94.5p. At a 35% premium to today's price of 70.0p, I rate this a STRONG BUY. A key factor here is that my forecasts include capex of £7.5m per half year. This reflects the planned investment in the estate. This reduces my valuation, as cash is lower than it would otherwise be, but provides a strong platform to drive revenue growth beyond the projection period. ======================= Update 1 February 2020 ======================= And another quick revision based on the Leven Cars acquisition. Updated forecasts are as follows, along with latest consensus (where available) in brackets: # Revenue ............... 2020: £685.6m (£689.15m), .. 2021: £727.9m (£718.6m) # Reported net profit ... 2020: £10.0m, .............. 2021: £11.1m # Adjusted net profit ... 2020: £10.2m (£9.9m), ...... 2021: £11.1m (£10.1m) # Reported EPS .......... 2020: 10.0p, ............... 2021: 11.1p # Adjusted EPS .......... 2020: 10.2p (9.7p), ........ 2021: 10.7p (10.1p) # DPS ................... 2020: 1.20p (1.1p), ........ 2021: 1.30p (1.1p) # Net cash .............. 2020: £4.4m, ............... 2021: 9.6m I have a made a few small enhancements to my valuation calculation, hence there is a little inconsistency with my prior forecasts. I have also changed my target PE ratio methodology, which was previously just a pick. I have now set it to 75% of the market median. I consider this low multiplier is appropriate due to the cyclical nature of the business. This gives a target PE ratio of 9.8 (versus 10 before), and I now get an adjusted valuation of 94.5p - exactly the same as before. At a 38% premium to today's price of 68.5p, I rate this a STRONG BUY. A key factor here is that my forecasts include capex of £7.5m per half year (no change). This reflects the planned investment in the estate. This reduces my valuation, as cash is lower than it would otherwise be, but provides a strong platform to drive revenue growth beyond the projection period. ============ Useful links ============ Investor relations: Http://www.cambriaautomobilesplc.com/investor_relations Broker forecasts: Http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?tab=4&vw=bs&SecurityToken=0P0000NN0I%5d3%5d0%5dE0WWE%24%24ALL&Id=0P0000NN0I&ClientFund=0&CurrencyId=GBP Monthly data on new car registrations: https://www.smmt.co.uk/category/news/registrations/ A very interesting post from Ethelwalch, who knows the business well: http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=34187475&from=27#firstpost Link to 2016 AGM report from Graham1TY: Http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=25207809&from=397#firstpost Alex Bossert (US hedge fund manager) makes a compelling long-term investment case for Cambria, at as 10 January 2018: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-EGG07KRPA
06/3/2015
09:20
cockerhoop: Shanklin, No probs, I accept the tone of the CAMB statement is much more bullish but once you analyse the numbers, each company appears to have performed well in different areas of their respective businesses. Decent article at Investor Champion comparing the 2 companies hTTp://www.investorschampion.com/blog/entry/cambria-automobiles-aimcamb-positive-pre-close-from-another-motor-retailer
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