Cambium Global Timberland Share Discussion Threads

[tenapen] 17/4/2011 12:13

FINALS
DDD Group, LiDCO Group, M. P. Evans Group, NetDimensions Holding Ltd. (DI), Phaunos Timber Fund Ltd.

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With Phaunos Timber Fund issuing their final results on Monday, their forward looking statement could give some out some clues as to where TREE are heading !.

[jonwig] 06/4/2011 07:24

Thanks GB.
Here it is (more than the snippet):

[grahamburn] 06/4/2011 06:42

From Digital Look "Tips" alert - no link to paper:

Timber does not feature in the portfolio of a typical investor but, as an asset class, it does have some interesting properties. Cambium Global Timberland (CGT) is Aim-quoted and invests in forests that can be managed on an environmentally and socially-sustainable basis. The shares are "cheap" and have the potential to be re-rated higher. Buy, says the Scotsman.

[tenapen] 01/4/2011 08:07

Have done Jonwig.

Good Luck with TREE.

[jonwig] 01/4/2011 07:46

tenapen - thanks for putting the holdings list into your header!
But you can delete the Deutsche Bank line - I missed the RNS on 18/03.

So what's a fair price for these?
Latest NAV (23/03) was 79p.
Jam Role's post on iii estimates current 76.3p. (I won't re-do his calculation as I trust it.)
Last two land sales showed one at 97%, the other at 118% of out-of date NAVs, so they don't really tell us much.
They should be able to divert timber to Japan generating cash, so I'd hazard 76p as a reasonably conservative estimate.
If that's the case, I'm happy to exit on a 15% discount, which would be around 65p.

That would be a nice earner if I can get it. With the institutional holdings at around 73% of the equity it's likely they will be pressing for some sort of outer which means the downside will probably be limited.

[jonwig] 30/3/2011 09:10

Thanks - makes sense, and maybe prompted by the instis themselves. (Only one has actually sold down by a notifiable amount recently.)

[jambo172] 30/3/2011 08:55

Looks like the overhang has been cleared.
I have been told that the board are talking to institutional shareholders without the managers in early April.
Maybe this might lead to some corporate activity.

[jonwig] 30/3/2011 07:57

Significant Holdings, up-to-date, I think:

Baillie Gifford .............. 17,130,000 16.45
Rensburg Sheppards Inv Mgt ... 10,147,653 9.75
British Steel Pensions ....... 10,000,000 9.60
SVM Asset Management .......... 6,200,000 5.95
Deutsche Bank Pvte Wealth Mgt . 5,262,575 5.05
Artemis Inv Mgt ................5,125,575 4.92
Speirs & Jeffrey, stkbkrs ..... 4,426,006 4.25
Stafford Timberland ........... 4,363,487 4.19
Ashcourt Asset Mgt ............ 3,997,610 3.84
AXA Framlington Inv Mgt ....... 3,723,000 3.58
Rathbones ..................... 3,698,176 3.55
Co-operative Asset Mgt ........ 3,465,000 3.33
West Yorkshire PF ............. 3,150,000 3.03

D Adamson ....................... 550,000 0.53
C McGrady ....................... 300,000 0.29
M Richardson .................... 150,000 0.14
W Spitz ......................... 100,000 0.10
R Rickman ........................ 25,000 0.02


Total 104,130,000

[grahamburn] 29/3/2011 11:39

If directors don't know more than others, then they shouldn't be directors! Unless, of course, they are trying to bolster confidence in spite of evidence to the contrary. However, the size of the purchases would tend to argue against that last sentence!

[jambo172] 29/3/2011 10:20

Punchy buying by the directors and managers.
Would think that they probably know more than the rest of us.

[topvest] 29/3/2011 10:05

Yes, looks the rebound is on.

[jonwig] 29/3/2011 09:52

Significant director buying en masse. Note the price paid, 53.875p will have these marked as sells in the ADVFN trades log.

[jonwig] 28/3/2011 11:26

Cambium Global Timberland Limited has received notification today from Stafford Timberland Limited that on 23 March 2011 they increased their holding to 4,363,487 ordinary shares, which represents 4.19% of the issued share capital of the Company.

Here they are. Whether they would be interested in an activist role I don't know, but at least the selling is being mopped up.

[jonwig] 25/3/2011 09:41

The quote 53.0 - 55.5 is a bit misleading - I bought a few at 53.9 just now, suggesting that the trades marked at and above 53 were actually buys.

[grahamburn] 21/3/2011 15:09

JP Morgan selling as well - no longer have a notifiable interest.

[jonwig] 18/3/2011 15:36

It's intriguing, though, isn't it! They seem to be sitting on stockpiles of building timber in Texas which might have an obvious destination.

From shareholders' point-of-view, I wonder whether liquidation of the fund might be the best option. I really don't think the balance sheet justifies share buybacks.

[grahamburn] 18/3/2011 15:28

Doubt if Deutsche Bank selling 1 million + shares (or around 1% of the shares in circulation) would have caused the fall. After all, it's been falling relentlessly for the past few weeks.

jonwig is right, though, something seems strange here, but could just be that their last statement didn't inspire confidence, let alone excitement.

[cambium] 18/3/2011 15:28

Ouch!
I'll bide my time, plenty going on elsewhere

[topvest] 18/3/2011 15:25

Could well be - Baillie Gifford are a large holder which is comforting, although they splashed out £15m or so at £1.

[cambium] 18/3/2011 15:13

No position yet but they raised over 100 million 4 years ago and it's only worth 55 now. Is the price just down to deutsche selling?

[tenapen] 18/3/2011 15:06

Here is our answer,

Notification of Holdings

Cambium Global Timberland Limited has received notification from Deutsche Bank AG that on 15 March 2011 they reduced their holding from 6,105,510 ordinary shares, which represented 5.86% of the issued share capital of the Company. Deutsche Bank AG's holding in the Company now falls below 5%.

[jonwig] 17/3/2011 20:00

Nearly a 30% discount to the last reported NAV! But something just doesn't smell right here.

[tenapen] 17/3/2011 19:48

Sinking fast !