Caledonia Mining Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 25/8/2020 17:50

I'm not sure to what evidence 'otherwise' you are referring?

As to 'twinkle in the eye' prospective mine, well, I don't think they've ever suggested they are going to gamble shareholders funds on a speculative venture.

I refer you page 4 of their interim presentation

hxxps://wp-caledoniamining-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/08/13104216/Q2-2020-Results-Presentation-MM-12082020.pdf

[dozey3] 25/8/2020 17:36

SteMiS, I wish I had your pleasant trusting nature instead of being such a grumpy old doubting Thomas. I’m sure the directors must keep the shareholders’ interests at the forefront of their minds at all times. It’s just that the evidence suggests otherwise. Silly me.

A new ‘twinkle in the eye’ prospective mine is a completely different animal to a cash rich low(ish) cost producer. Let shareholders do the gambling if they wish but don’t railroad them into it.

SteMiS, hope this doesn’t come across as rude; from your many posts I hold you in great regard, just not this time.

[stemis] 25/8/2020 15:37

I think that's unfair. CMCL management have consistently paid a rising dividend and never gone chasing expansion for expansion sake. I'm pretty confident we'll see the dividend rise quite substantially here in the future and any expansion will be prudently undertaken.

[melody9999] 24/8/2020 23:03

Dozey - they are contemplating acquiring another mine, which in the short term will require funds, but in the mid /long term will increase value for all shareholders. Better use of capital than just paying large divis.....though divis are increasing too.

[dozey3] 24/8/2020 14:19

Sharescope gives CMCL a current cap of £182m. Forecast Norm EPS is 264p at end of this year with net cash. Divi is predicted up 24% at 35p.
Now please excuse my ignorance as a newbie gold bug, but whilst I appreciate political risk and ongoing investment in the central shaft and the lom why do they not increase the divi considerably (perhaps x2 or x3) which would surely be possible and attract income seekers?
(My residual holding is a free run since cashing half the holding last month, so I'm in no hurry to sell.)

[juuunx2] 14/8/2020 17:23

I just got back in after slicing some profits earlier. Results seemed sound enough unless I missed something

[critch16] 14/8/2020 14:32

Results were good from a production point of view for the quarter but they already released news that COVID didn't really impact, so that was a known and part of reason we rallied so strongly - along with gold price and the noise of acquiring another mine to boost production.I did reduce recently on the basis of no update on (what I think is a real hot potato in the making and potential banana skin) acquiring another Zim mine and also the likely delays attached to central shaft due to travel restrictions in SA. There was ambiguity in the sense that they said there was delays getting the people in and and there may be a delay to central shaft but they also effectively withdrew existing guidance for completion this year and declined to give a timeline so to me that says they don't expect it to be finished this year (as planned). That paragraph has a negative tone to it the more you read it and does delay the story, admittedly it's not the fault of the company/management however. It's simply the covid situation.Longer term I am still a believer in this company as I believe gold is going higher (2300-3000 from the IB's and $15,000 from Peter Schiff I believe ? my view is 2500 over next 6-12 easily achievable) and I do believe management are handing things well - for now. Plus there is a good track record here - despite the political risk. Hopefully I'll get to add back the shares I sold soon. Would be interested to hear thoughts of others from other holders on acquiring another mine in ZIM if there are any views? I can't see it happen (at least in Zim as everything appears too small) and if they moved away from Zim for me the political risk (which has always been downplayed by management) would then become too high as that would likely damage the relationship (which they always boast so strongly about) with the govt as they take money out of Zim.SJ - would be really interested to hear your thoughts sir , I remember you from the Avesco thread a few years ago, hope you are your wife are well and keeping safe esquire :). I'll endeavour to post this on your forum too!

[fredfishcake] 14/8/2020 12:42

Odd - I thought they were good results with decent prospects looking forward, but the market doesn't seem to agree with me!

[goatherd] 13/8/2020 08:59

Does anyone have a figure for CMCL's NPV at the moment, please?

[mikkydhu] 12/8/2020 10:47

Maybe the present dip in the gold price will enable the company to acquire an additional prospect at a cheaper price than would otherwise have been possible.

[stemis] 05/8/2020 09:24

I guess it's inevitable that there's going to be the occasional retrace; the rise from 500p to 1800p has been quite sudden and some will want to lighten overweight positions and protect profit. But with gold now over $2000 and a significant expansion of production imminent this surely has a way to go. At current gold price and 80,000 oz output, a share price of 3000p would only valued CMCL at 5.3 x ebitda

[sailing john] 05/8/2020 09:14

Gold still going up 2037 +1%. Hopefully further buying pressure in US allowing Company to raise cash without too much overhang.

[sailing john] 04/8/2020 21:32

Gold through 2000. US price moving back up after recent pullback which I have attributed to the Company creating an overhang with their solar farm fundraising. That should be temporary (a few months?) and when built worth it I hope.

[ntv] 27/7/2020 14:19

Presuming this placing or what ever they call it, is going to be around £17.75/£18

[tightfist] 27/7/2020 05:59

We have a lot of catching up to do - according to my calcs the US is 16+% ahead of us....... And that was before the weekend PoG rise.....

[sailing john] 24/7/2020 14:49

Gold just popped it's head above 1900 - consolidate or keep going?

Interesting development today with Solar farm proposal. Great idea given state of electricity supplies in Zimbabwe and good that they are investing in infrastructure. Not sure about raising some on markets but US doesn't appear bothered and given daily volume in US is currently averaging around 200k/day any overhang won't take too long to clear.

Current US $25.31/25.48
EDIT US $25.52 / 25.65 going up as I typed!!!
EDIT US $26.00 / 26.25 no stopping it - US investors must like investment in solar farm and the fact that Gold through $1900!!!!
EDIT 7.30pm 27.1 mid + another 10% Bonkers! think we might see £20 Monday!?
Close 27.6 mid +12.5%

[fredfishcake] 24/7/2020 14:31

Odd the disconnect between the listing in the two countries. We're down quite markedly here. The US is up at bit at $25.49 aka £19.93.

[sailing john] 23/7/2020 14:47

Gold still rising now $1887
CMCL at $24.8 in the US

[argoal] 23/7/2020 09:52

Just sold enough too recover my original investment at £18.06.

The profit from the trade will just ride it out until the market catches up..

[eltorero1979] 22/7/2020 17:17

Agreed on this. Only question is where the gold price is going. Personally think we will break $2k, which further underlines the argument.


Long term expect Gold to push higher due to weakening of dollar as Fed prints more and mroe to sustain markets.

Only thing is at current levels tempting to sell and to pile more into HGM and TSG rather than CMCL.

[stemis] 22/7/2020 15:53

Remember, at 80,000 oz per annum, a gold price of $1850 and an all in sustaining cost of $800-700, this will be knocking out an ebitda of about $80-92m. Current mkt cap at 1700p is $250m. Even if they decide to pay just a third out as dividend, that's a yield of 11-12%. Not sure what they'd do with the rest. It's not like there's any debt to pay down...

[ntv] 22/7/2020 15:17

and here comes the big dipper.
what a roller coaster ride it is

[ntv] 22/7/2020 14:50

That is equal to £19