Caledonia Mining Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 12/8/2021 08:33

Market cap $148m = EV of $131m

Underlying ebitda in quarter $14m = annualised of $56m

Currently valued at 2.3 x Q2 ebitda

Average gold price realised in Q2 was $1,792. Current price is $1,725 (a fall of 4%). However this should be more than offset by production increases - July was 5,995 oz (up 8% on average monthly in Q2).

Glen Hume is disappointing but does show that they will stick firmly to their criteria and not throw shareholder money away on low return projects.

Yield is now 4.3%

[fredfishcake] 12/8/2021 08:23

I think there's a balance to be struck here. I don't think outright nationalization is a risk, but things like windfall taxes are, and it's not that long ago that we had to have 50% local ownership. It's part of the reason you wouldn't want 100% of your portfolio here and any investor should bear in mind that the only real resource of this co is a mine in Zim. That doesn't make it uninvestable though!

[sailing john] 12/8/2021 07:39

Excellent results. Production up and most importantly costs down. I think these results will mark a trend reversal. I'm assuming further divi increases will follow.

[tigerbythetail] 12/8/2021 07:35

Good results this morning, as usual here. Company is on a good upwards trajectory.

ScepticalInvestor has been reading too many extreme right wing websites. Zimbabwe much improved for investment since changes, and nationalisation pretty much unthinkable.

[scepticalinvestor] 12/8/2021 07:20

The fact that this is based in Zimbabwe makes this uninvestible imo. Highly volatile gov, may nationalise at the drop of a hat.

[ga_dti] 07/7/2021 07:41

Watch our latest interview with Steve Curtis talking through the quarterly production update:

[mikkydhu] 06/7/2021 16:26

If the two exploration prospects of Glen Hume and Connemara North were unlikely to prove worth developing, would Caledonia have mentioned them by name in today's dividend news release?

[replicas1967] 06/7/2021 08:49

Looking very undervalued this stock now - topped up this morning

[stemis] 06/7/2021 08:45

Another 8% increase in dividend, making 89% in less than 2 years...

[stemis] 05/7/2021 10:03

I don't think there is any evidence for your claim...

[dozey3] 03/7/2021 16:13

The share price conundrum is IMO just a matter of confidence. Are shareholders likely to get their deserved reward when the cash comes rolling in? The market is saying NO, there may be modest increases in dividend but the bulk of excess cash will likely be creamed off elsewhere - management, government, new blue sky projects. Having jettisoned half my holding some time ago at over £18, I foolishly hung on to the remainder but now surely at this level all but nuclear conflagration is priced in.

[leopoldalcox] 03/7/2021 11:57

I suspect Zimbabwe in particular does put off investors, but does it really carry more jurisdictional risk than say Mali or Tanzania?

[mikkydhu] 30/6/2021 10:51

One element in jurisdictional risk is the attitude of the government through the Ministry of Finance to new and existing business ventures. To assess the current situation, it is worth listening to the video of 21st May in which Tim Blythe of Blytheweigh interviews Steve Curtis, CEO. It's on the CMCL website.

The government is proposing new incentives. For any extra (above the average) gold ounces that are produced, the company will be entitled to retain 80% of the US$ value, in US dollars, instead of the current 60%. The Blanket mine is currently increasing its production which should therefore qualify. For new projects, such as those Caledonia is currently investigating, 100% retention in US dollars is possible. Steve Curtis says, "For those incremental ounces we will have the right to export the gold ourselves and collect the funds outside the country and we can use those dollar proceeds to secure debt funding or to finance items that need to have a higher confidence factor from a lender that says you need to show us that you've got control over your US dollars."

And there are other incentives.

Surely the situation is improving?

[melody9999] 30/6/2021 09:52

Sceptic - jurisdiction always has been a risk. How has that increased in 2021 to reflect your target price? Or are you just talking your own book?

[pi0110] 30/6/2021 09:32

Sceptic, what's changed to make you say that? CMCL reached £18 last year

[scepticalinvestor] 30/6/2021 07:19

Due to the extensive jurisdictional risks cant see this being worth a punt above 400p

[mikkydhu] 26/6/2021 19:01

I wonder if that trade is anything to do with a possible listing on the new Victoria Falls Stock Exchange?

[ntv] 26/6/2021 12:43

Massive trade in the states last night with nearly 10% of the company changing hands in a single block

[papillon] 23/6/2021 00:52

"The latest London South East Webinar takes place on July 6. Come and hear CEO’s from Orosur Mining, Caledonia Mining, Glantus Holdings and Tekcapital speak."

Taken from the lse website.

[3800] 22/6/2021 21:29

Last summer CMCL was twice the current share price, gold is down from $2000 an oz at its peak to $1777 now,no idea what the dividend will be but I am expecting one though.
3800

[mikkydhu] 22/6/2021 18:34

Last year, on 29th June, the company announced an increase in the dividend. By that date they would have known almost the total production for Q2. Will they do something similar this year?

[papillon] 03/6/2021 12:37

There is a lovely bottoming out process going in the CMCL chart. Like the left hand side of a big cup. The fundamentals look good for gold (and CMCL) going by last week's RNS. I expect the right hand side of that big cup to start to form soon. Could be that in H1 2022 we are looking at the CMCL share price retesting last summer's high. All dependent on the gold price rising in line with analyst's forecasts, of course.

[buoycat] 22/5/2021 15:58

Markets may look forward. Charts can only look back!

[dozey3] 17/5/2021 12:05

Markets are forward looking, and the chart does not show any confidence.

[mikkydhu] 17/5/2021 11:42

There's a new presentation on the website in the form of an interview with the ebullient Jochen Staiger of Commodity-TV-Rohstoff-TV. Mark Learmonth explains in much more detail the reasons for the poor first quarter results. Fortunately, all the issues are now fixed.