Cake Box Share Discussion Threads

[theaccountant2] 20/11/2023 10:04

Another bad call if yours over at Ashtead!

[martywidget] 20/11/2023 08:21

Small Cap Value Report (Fri 17 Nov 2023) - FRP, REC, GHT, GEN, TRCS, REVB, AOM, CBOX, G4M

[levinson1] 20/11/2023 00:51

Watch CBOX fall below £1 imoI'm no guru but I have been correctly saying imo SELL since they were 184p a share.

[levinson1] 19/11/2023 23:01

Dream on !!!

[disc0dave46] 19/11/2023 09:59

Ref post 647Don't get the same percentage changes, but don't disagree they are decent numbers, that said you have highlighted my point really that Rev has increased significantly but eps hasn't, far from it. I just see that trend increasing with all their additional costs snd at some point there will be saturation.Does look to me like they may beat eps forecast for this FY, perhaps that's part of the CFO's new strategy - under promise and over deliver. Did check the franchise package costs (assuming it's applied to the 9 new franchisees for H1) and compared to last FY (H1 11 new franchises) the cost they charge has reduced by about 33%, which can be viewed positively in terms of encouraging take up, but negatively to the bottom line profit (which could also be contributing to the significant fall in eps?). Noted that they are now charging marketing fees to franchisees!.If you hold I wish you all the best, I'm more positive but the trust issue unfortunately is still putting me off, plus I don't think chasing income to the detriment of earnings is the way to go.

[parttime] 18/11/2023 19:23

A fair point but I would argue that a fair chunk of investment has occurred over that time scale which comes with on going costs, as you mention. The board has been seriously beefed up, 2 distribution centres are now running, I believe marketing has also been increased as well as an updated web site so increased admin costs there. Remember CBOX is still a micro cap making a few mill per year and not 10's of millions so these costs will hit harder.
That said, we should/need to see the benefits of all of this investment feeding down into the eps figures over the next few years.

The broker eps forecasts I have currently are...

FY '24 '25 '26
EPS 11p 12p 14p
GROWTH 4.28% 10% 16.7%

Personally I thought Shore might have tweaked this yrs eps up slightly after H1 results but seemingly not, perhaps as higher interest will hit harder over the next 12 months. imo.

You mentioned 2019 so I thought it may be worth comparing FY2019 with FY2023 and I don't think the numbers look to shabby when one considers that over the period we
now have 2 new distribution centres, a beefed up board, new up and running web site and on-line sales platform, zero debt, net cash and numerous franchisees opening multiple shops, dispelling a myth that the franchisees are hard done by.

I have Rev +106%
Gross profit +123%
Pre tax profit +42%
Cash +138%
Net fixed assets +182%
Eps +40%
Dividends +129% And achieved during the so called 'cost of living crisis', a pandemic induced lockdown, rising energy and raw ingredient prices due to a war in Eastern Europe and currently higher interest rates to contend with. :(( Imagine what they could do in 'normal' times ;)

[disc0dave46] 17/11/2023 21:42

Maybe so but doesn't add up or change the fact that compared to pre covid (H1 2019) revenue has doubled but eps has only increased 21%.

[parttime] 17/11/2023 17:43

discodave,

I'm pretty sure Sukh Chamdal explained (about 6 months ago) in a Vox markets podcast with Paul Hill that Cakebox wouldn't be putting prices up to cover the full hit of inflation. This was to partly protect the franchisees and thus in turn retain customers and sales.

[tomtum1] 17/11/2023 08:59

The multi ID clown Discodave aka diggers is back.He shorted CNA at 30p and bought SAGA at 398

[justiceforthemany] 16/11/2023 16:24

Hotel Chocolat bought by Mars for a huge 170% premium!
It was barely making a profit.

Cake Box is worth at least 3x its current share price on that basis.

[disc0dave46] 16/11/2023 10:16

Yeah sales are still growing (but LFL isn't brilliant given inflation) but costs are growing to the point that despite improved gross margins admin expenses are reducing bottom line earnings significantly when compared to pre Covid (compare to H1 Nov 2019, sales £8.77m eps 3.67p to now: sales £17.96m eps 4.45p).That's quite some deterioration in bottom line earnings.

[simmsc] 14/11/2023 18:55

you can't keep a good stock (with good divis, a decent ROCE, cash in the bank, still growing and a sensible PE of just over 10) down forever.


just over 200 shops in the UK over-saturated? Greggs have over 2,300 stores ... so to get to ca 400 cake shops is feasible (bearing in mind Cakebox is one of the only nationwide independent cake suppliers (to consumers) in the UK).


Free money on the streets.

[levinson1] 14/11/2023 18:05

Don't think the growth that you anticipate is there at all. Number of shops now saturated. It's a luxury item where imo demand will fall. Well overpriced

[tomtum1] 14/11/2023 15:21

Diggers is back. Well at least he is using one ID today.

[justiceforthemany] 14/11/2023 10:54

Bumper Xmas season to come.

[disc0dave46] 14/11/2023 10:28

On face value it does look like decent numbers (I get circa 11.6p eps for the year).Still no confirmation of what "expectations" actually are though.Their bottom line earnings (eps) per £m of income has reduced significantly when compared to pre Covid. It was consistently around 0.4 to 0.5 (median 0.45) but now it's half that, so they are ramping up sales at declining profit margin and their additional costs (particularly marketing & staff) are taking a bigger piece of the cake. Before anyone says, their shares in issue hasn't changed so that's not the reason.Haven't checked but they have in the past ramped up the costs disproportionally to new franchisees via their "franchise package" rates to improve profits.

[justiceforthemany] 14/11/2023 10:09

Still growing and dividend up 10%.
NET CASH POSITION.

[justiceforthemany] 14/11/2023 10:09

Excellent results!

[saurish] 14/11/2023 08:37

We'll I won't call a 19.6% growth in EPS ex growth or a boring stock. Each to its own but I'll take a 19.6% growth at a fwd PE of 11 any day!

[levinson1] 14/11/2023 08:23

V unimpressive results. They're clearly going ex growth . Boring stock now and miss the previous ChairmanWatch these slip back a lot imo

[tomtum1] 05/11/2023 14:42

Diggerdog1

[disc0dave46] 05/11/2023 13:46

Meant to add they are likely to give notice of H1 results in the coming week.

[tomtum1] 05/11/2023 13:32

Hello diggers