Cake Box Share Discussion Threads

[levinson1] 01/12/2023 17:13

I see that you've got Gulf Keystone all wrong too. Clueless

[justiceforthemany] 01/12/2023 15:42

Just topped up. Wow look at the large buys today.
Revised offer coming for Xmas?
Levinson you naughty boy - an angry, jealous nephew/relative.

[sphere25] 01/12/2023 12:56

You won't see £1 unless the festive trading is absolutely dire. The update recently suggests they are confident, but we can never be sure in this environment - it is a tough ole slog. Low growth and normalised higher rate environment for the foreseeable future likely means muted bullishness or at least that is what most of the smaller caps continue to price in. Hopefully it does change soon.

That said, someone appears to be sure there is value here because they are coming for decent chunks:

774k picked up at 146.5p
280k picked up at 146.5p

That is about 2.6% picked up in a very tightly held share.

Clearly sellers in size sat there so no imbalance in supply/demand to cause a price move as yet, but watching to see if they do keep coming in for a possible short term trade.

Just typing this as I go along, but it looks like Crux were selling down with about 1m to go and Canaccord halved their holding down to 2m in late July

Schroders buying and a luxembourg entity...dont know who they are...but they were adding.

Three market makers still sat firmly on the offer so looks like more to be sold but one has shifted higher to 145p on the bid.

Just wondering if they are any more delayed or big chunks to follow to suggest a clearout for a pop higher.

It looks like the value here is backed by the 160p approach and current trading being fine. Maybe the buying from stale bulls here suggests another bid coming too?

Anywho, worth a watch

All imo
DYOR

UPDATE:13:54 Just a little trickle of buys noting the buyers in size here. Market makers are shifting higher. In for a trade at 148p to see if there is momentum here

[levinson1] 25/11/2023 19:53

Dream on !!!!! These will be sub £1 v soon

[justiceforthemany] 24/11/2023 14:53

River Capital revised offer coming soon here. 160p upped to 180p-200p. Still too low.

[levinson1] 24/11/2023 08:11

Down they go - as predicted. Wait for sub£1 imo

[levinson1] 24/11/2023 07:56

Justice for the many - with respect, you are a dreamer. I will stick my neck out : watch CBOX fall today. Imo a lot of pent up sellers

[justiceforthemany] 23/11/2023 14:40

Mars Hotel Chocolat like takeover coming soon!
You have to be in it to win it.

[levinson1] 22/11/2023 22:50

Sun £1 soon imo

[justiceforthemany] 22/11/2023 11:23

Last day to qualify for the dividend is today.

[justiceforthemany] 20/11/2023 17:34

Ex-Dividend this Thursday
2.9p interim, up 10%

[martywidget] 20/11/2023 13:52

MIDAS SHARE TIPS UPDATE: Dividend is a sweetener after Cake Box drops



Cake Box (CBOX) - Sukh Chamdal, CEO & Mike Botha, CFO
Nov 17, 2023

[simmsc] 20/11/2023 13:04

Another UK stock that is misunderstood and at the wrong price.
Good for us - we can keep on buying :-)

[justiceforthemany] 20/11/2023 12:51

Tipped in the weekend press.
M&A
New takeover offer probable.
Hotel Chocolat style 170% would be nice!

[theaccountant2] 20/11/2023 10:04

Another bad call if yours over at Ashtead!

[martywidget] 20/11/2023 08:21

Small Cap Value Report (Fri 17 Nov 2023) - FRP, REC, GHT, GEN, TRCS, REVB, AOM, CBOX, G4M

[levinson1] 20/11/2023 00:51

Watch CBOX fall below £1 imoI'm no guru but I have been correctly saying imo SELL since they were 184p a share.

[levinson1] 19/11/2023 23:01

Dream on !!!

[disc0dave46] 19/11/2023 09:59

Ref post 647Don't get the same percentage changes, but don't disagree they are decent numbers, that said you have highlighted my point really that Rev has increased significantly but eps hasn't, far from it. I just see that trend increasing with all their additional costs snd at some point there will be saturation.Does look to me like they may beat eps forecast for this FY, perhaps that's part of the CFO's new strategy - under promise and over deliver. Did check the franchise package costs (assuming it's applied to the 9 new franchisees for H1) and compared to last FY (H1 11 new franchises) the cost they charge has reduced by about 33%, which can be viewed positively in terms of encouraging take up, but negatively to the bottom line profit (which could also be contributing to the significant fall in eps?). Noted that they are now charging marketing fees to franchisees!.If you hold I wish you all the best, I'm more positive but the trust issue unfortunately is still putting me off, plus I don't think chasing income to the detriment of earnings is the way to go.

[parttime] 18/11/2023 19:23

A fair point but I would argue that a fair chunk of investment has occurred over that time scale which comes with on going costs, as you mention. The board has been seriously beefed up, 2 distribution centres are now running, I believe marketing has also been increased as well as an updated web site so increased admin costs there. Remember CBOX is still a micro cap making a few mill per year and not 10's of millions so these costs will hit harder.
That said, we should/need to see the benefits of all of this investment feeding down into the eps figures over the next few years.

The broker eps forecasts I have currently are...

FY '24 '25 '26
EPS 11p 12p 14p
GROWTH 4.28% 10% 16.7%

Personally I thought Shore might have tweaked this yrs eps up slightly after H1 results but seemingly not, perhaps as higher interest will hit harder over the next 12 months. imo.

You mentioned 2019 so I thought it may be worth comparing FY2019 with FY2023 and I don't think the numbers look to shabby when one considers that over the period we
now have 2 new distribution centres, a beefed up board, new up and running web site and on-line sales platform, zero debt, net cash and numerous franchisees opening multiple shops, dispelling a myth that the franchisees are hard done by.

I have Rev +106%
Gross profit +123%
Pre tax profit +42%
Cash +138%
Net fixed assets +182%
Eps +40%
Dividends +129% And achieved during the so called 'cost of living crisis', a pandemic induced lockdown, rising energy and raw ingredient prices due to a war in Eastern Europe and currently higher interest rates to contend with. :(( Imagine what they could do in 'normal' times ;)

[disc0dave46] 17/11/2023 21:42

Maybe so but doesn't add up or change the fact that compared to pre covid (H1 2019) revenue has doubled but eps has only increased 21%.

[parttime] 17/11/2023 17:43

discodave,

I'm pretty sure Sukh Chamdal explained (about 6 months ago) in a Vox markets podcast with Paul Hill that Cakebox wouldn't be putting prices up to cover the full hit of inflation. This was to partly protect the franchisees and thus in turn retain customers and sales.