Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[lordlucan1] 22/6/2021 12:03

My mistake Dontay, let me simplify the question for you -

Share price by year end, higher or lower?

[dontay] 22/6/2021 11:46

Speculating on future share price levels is a ridiculous exercise and a meaningless irrelevance. No- one has anywhere near enough information to even come close to wild guessing. Who knows what Global or Eskom BESS or private mini-grid contracts they may or may not win by then. Who knows if the insti's suddenly want to go on a buying spree and acquire multi-millions of shares ... or none!

[lordlucan1] 22/6/2021 11:26

Nvhltd & Dontay - what share price you expecting by year end?

[purchaseatthetop] 22/6/2021 09:52

Thanks dontay....fully take onboard your point on trust. Opaqueness. Clarity. However I believe that someone or some company might want the BMN cash flow and resource. At 15p given the future it is cheap even with the garbage.

[dontay] 22/6/2021 09:27

New top 10 list for for end of May just published shows no change, so may still be Deferco who we know we're selling and reduced to just under the 3% disclosure point on their last notification. No further disclosures are required from them but they still had around 35 million at that time. But there is no real benefits to be had from knowing, because whoever it is will continue for as long as they want to ... (and they may even be using algo's to rinse and repeat) and the real impact is not the seller, it's the fact the insti's don't trust the opaque, smoke and mirror, ownership secrecy, delays and general lack of clarity that's become embedded in the culture of the company ... and as a result they are not touching it with a barge pole even at these share price levels.The market does not like lack of clarity, never has and never will. Regardless of commodity prices, complete lack of trust trumps cash. The impetus for change has to come from the company. Imo.

[purchaseatthetop] 22/6/2021 08:46

I keep waiting to see if the consistent 100k share seller has finally finished. Lots and lots of these sales. When and if they finish we rise strongly. IMO. Anybody know who it is?

[purchaseatthetop] 22/6/2021 04:26

Just got up in lovely Umbria. Another 35c day. Bird singing, peace and quiet. Rural calm. But forget that...just look at vanadium prices...

FV 50% +2.99 to 0.66% China largest
FV 80% +1.19% China
V pent 92% +1.35 to 0.85%
V pent 98% +1.29 to 1.61%
V pent 99% +1.5% everywhere

Moving strongly towards $50. I started buying BMN when the price was $28 and the share price 12.9p. Although I agree with many points by megaman and also nvhltd and respect their views, my view is that the price is only going up and Fortunes sins will be washed away by the cash flow.

Having said that nothing surprises me in me getting things wrong.

[plat hunter] 21/6/2021 21:36

"Net earnings is a poor measure for a miner. FCF is my preferred measure."100% agree so long as there's been no changes to the working capital outside of the cash accruals

[purchaseatthetop] 21/6/2021 18:51

Megaman....100% agreement. Very limited downside. Large upside at 15p.

[megaman2] 21/6/2021 18:11

I think where we both agree is that the share has a higher probability of rising than falling.

[jc2706] 21/6/2021 17:07

Net earnings is a poor measure for a miner. FCF is my preferred measure.

[purchaseatthetop] 21/6/2021 16:03

Megaman..we just look at things differently. I invest in fallen angels. All my shares are companies with great ideas or products or resource that fell due to bad leadership or events. ITX, AGL, MCRO, SAGA, STX etc....things can turn round really quickly.

BMN has great potential. Just IMO. OK you may be right and I may not multibag like I have on the others....but it might.

[megaman2] 21/6/2021 15:54

The last v rise fell and was $20 within 12 months ...the v price can turn on a six pence. Could be back 8n the 20s next year.

Bmn have so far failed to deliver on production and costs.

This is two old mines this won't be the last maintenance shut down there is no guarantee costs will improve significantly.

This is not a start up mining operation. P.e. for producing mining stocks are 5-10 in South Africa. 36 p.e. is grossly overvalued.

[purchaseatthetop] 21/6/2021 13:57

Mega man....completely correct but you are ignoring future cash flow. If the v price sets in for a sustained growth and BMN starts to deliver decreased costs and higher production, then rapid rise in share price. Also exchange rates against dollar are reducing costs in local currency.

[megaman2] 21/6/2021 12:49

At current v price given achieved price is a month lag puts average price at c $35 for the year. $7 million net profit for the year 36 p.e. ratio makes bmn currently grossly over valued on this measure. It's going to need considerably higher v price to move the s.p.

[purchaseatthetop] 21/6/2021 11:50

Nvhltd...the really scary part is that if the vanadium price rise had not happened or had been delayed, would BMN equity holders have been left with any value at all? Fortune could have led the shareholders to their doom.

[purchaseatthetop] 21/6/2021 10:31

Nvhltd...I think that the vanadium storage new demand has changed the game. Vanadium prices will rise and then not plummet. On why we are not at 3750mtv....its Africa.

But as napoleon did not say....I prefer a lucky general to a good general.

[gah123] 21/6/2021 10:18

To FM's credit he acquired Vanchem which together with Vametco is forecast to produce circa 4,100 mtv this yr. That's a massive operation delivering considerable revenue and profit at current prices.

[nvhltd] 21/6/2021 09:57

Purchase: Exactly. Judgement hasn’t played a part. We didn’t reap the full benefits of the rise during 2018 and we’re not going to reap the full rewards of this rise too when production guidance for this year is circa 2,700 mtv instead of 5,000mtv.

Will the Vanadium price rise significantly and last longer than 2018? Let’s hope so, because Fortune can not be relied upon. I appreciate the maintenance to a point, but why we aren’t at a steady state of 3,750 mtv per annum is a mystery.

[purchaseatthetop] 21/6/2021 04:37

Extraordinary rises continue. There is no denying that Fortune is being saved by the price rises.

FV 50% +0.7 to 1.53%
FV80% +0.7 to 1.2%
V pent 92% +0.8 to 1.36%
V pent 98% +0.8 to 1.31%

Lucky lucky lucky. And IMO only going to continue. Happy days.

[purchaseatthetop] 20/6/2021 12:13

Nvhltd....I got my dates wrong. Phases 1 and 2 have delivered nothing.

[nvhltd] 20/6/2021 12:07

Covid hit in March 2020 roughly.

I disagree about Fortune. If he was sold a pup then he has to take responsibility for failing to carry out meaningful due diligence.

Likewise after we become the owner and responsible he instigated a 3 phase expansion program to take us to 5,000mtv by the end of 2019.

Phase 1 and 2 were completed by June 2018. Three years ago. Phase 2 was supposed to deliver 3,750 mtv per annum. In the 3 years since they successfully implemented phase 1 and 2 they have never delivered.

Phase 3 has been pushed out by 3 to 5 years and the 5,000mtv so often targeted in the early years suddenly became 4,200 mtv per annum. No reasonable explanation was given for dropping the target by 800 mtv or why they have pushed out phase 3 given the structural deficit and demand from VRFB’s.

A CEO can only blame his predecessors for so long before he has to carry the can.