Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 08/3/2021 09:35

His broad conclusion is that he can't invest until the uncertainty over the 2 big cases is resolved. What he's missing is the market is effectively giving zero (or even negative) value to these cases, so this is more than priced in. I view the cases as a free option with potentially massive upside. However even if you strip these out the company looks very cheap at these levels.

[dekle] 08/3/2021 09:23

I also would like to point out that they made a substantial profit without a contribution from the 2 largest cases. They say you should never fall in love with a share but I could have done that here.

[1aconic] 08/3/2021 09:00

I agree with some elements (although not how serious the consequences might be) but it's generally really superficial and contains some hideously basic errors (like Petersen having produced no cash revenue... something he even tries to continue arguing in the comments when the glaring error is pointed out to him!). He also appears to ignore entirely that the YPF cases are now relatively late stage and imply that downside risk is equally balanced with upside (i.e. assuming that possible YPF outcomes are correctly priced in) which I don't *remotely* agree with. So many other crucial aspects of the business are totally overlooked. Shame that it's a "published" article as the level of insight really is more of forum post levels...

[dekle] 08/3/2021 07:28

Can't argue with Tom Worstall's view but I'm less sceptical about the length of the time the main cases are resolved. Let's hope I'm right.

[lomax99] 08/3/2021 07:16

No, it is not IC.I believe Seekingalpha is a US based forum, where individuals can post their own views?

[jockthescot75] 08/3/2021 06:47

Is this the IC Lomax?

Thx.

[lomax99] 07/3/2021 22:22

I am not particularly bothered that he is not convinced:Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4411606-burford-capital-still-doesnt-quite-convince-me

[1aconic] 05/3/2021 14:20

Current holding in JAGX not worth a lot but here's something that popped up in the news today to provide a little break from discussions over short term price movements...
Jaguar Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAGX) ("Jaguar" or the "Company") today announced that the Company has entered a binding agreement of terms (the "Term Sheet") for a third non-dilutive royalty financing transaction, pursuant to which Jaguar would sell to the lender for an aggregate purchase price of $5 million (the "Royalty Purchase Price") a royalty interest in future potential crofelemer (Mytesi®) sales for the proposed COVID-related indication in long-hauler patients (as defined below), for which the Company is currently exploring the pathway of conditional marketing authorization in the European Union.

Jaguar intends to use the proceeds from the proposed transaction to support regulatory activities associated with the Company's development pipeline, including supporting the development program for crofelemer for the prophylaxis and/or symptomatic relief of inflammatory diarrhea, initially to be studied in a long-hauler COVID-19 recovery patient population (the "COVID-related indication"). This $5 million royalty financing transaction follows a $6 million royalty transaction consummated in October 2020 and a $6 million royalty transaction consummated in December 2020 with affiliates of the lender and is based on similar terms that will be outlined upon closing.

[porsche1945] 05/3/2021 01:04

hope most of you poor idiots had the sense to offload this around 7.70, i said at the time it was a miracle price and to grab it, was watching a MW interview the other day, bur the biggest fraud of a company on aim so thats saying something.

[bogman1] 04/3/2021 22:05

Good piece thanks Oz. Didn't cause much of a rise in the share price but good publicity. Once the Peterson case comes through this should get a great re rate load up under 6 imho

[ozzmosiz] 04/3/2021 21:05

www.businesslive.co.za/bd/markets/2021-03-03-watch-stock-picks-intel-and-burford-capital/

[williamcooper104] 04/3/2021 16:04

Buy backs would be the right thing to do if Bur was a stagnant investment trust with little growth

[williamcooper104] 04/3/2021 16:03

Agreed; Bur shouldn't waste precious liquidity on share buy backs Burs management however should use some of their previous share sale proceeds into buying more stock at below NAV

[lomax99] 04/3/2021 13:47

Absolutely, happy to add around £6, or progressively below that.

[1aconic] 04/3/2021 13:30

It's been discussed on virtually every investor call since MW. You've got a relatively new business hungry for investment cash to cement their market leading position. Why would you use that cash when you're having to "borrow" from people like the SWF at 40% of profit. It doesn't really make sense unless they can find a suitable source of excess funds... a couple of very hefty results in the short term and they probably would. However, it currently makes more sense for investors that way inclined to buy more shares for themselves.

[lomax99] 04/3/2021 13:20

I’d rather they invested in cases likely to at least maintain their ROIC at 92%.

[rar100] 04/3/2021 13:01

So why doesn't Burford buy their shares?

[lazg] 04/3/2021 00:52

I really like your last point DJ. Please do mention their response here if you get the chance.

[djderry] 03/3/2021 23:50

I take your points time_traveller and won't take up space trying to win win some pointless argument ( which is what goes on here a lot.)
I suppose what I'm getting at is that ,in my view ,you are worrying about the wrong things.
Firstly,and you probably know this,any money one needs over,say,the next five years should not be invested in the stock market.
Secondly,and I'm not trying to personalise this,but most on here are naive .(I mean on all the bulletin boards) If the shareprice is going up,they think the company and their management are doing great things.
If the shareprice is tanking,well,you get the opposite.
You see,we humans love to construct narratives as to why something is happening.
Ok,what should you be worrying about?
How rigorous the selection process is,how selective they are,the choice of cases ,in particular the various risk profiles,the agility of the company to respond to their customer needs,their capital markets profile,etc,etc.
But, remember,you or I are not choosing the cases.
We don't need to have any view on the outcome of any particular case.
I have outsourced that function to the most experienced team in the business.
What I want to see is Burford leveraging their leadership position,becoming the go-to company for legal finance.
Continuing to build the largest,most resilient and varied risk-adjusted portfolio of legal finance in the world,backed by the most comprehensive data base ,underpinned by their key underwriting skills.
I'll stop now.
One last point,and it will probably be made at the conference call,is that with a shareprice so divorced from reality,a case could be made that Burford would triple or quadruple its money by buying back shares.

[time_traveller] 03/3/2021 22:41

Thanks DJ. Yes, I can't really argue with your point, and i keep telling myself to invest (my core stocks) like Warren buffet (for ever), but that came unstuck when I had no choice but to sell about 20% to comfortably have a cash buffer to pay bills while I have no income; and that was annoying and expensive. Thankfully that's resolved and i topped up last week at £6.15. I also day traded the positive trend from £5 to £6, quite successfully about 10 times, but lost half of those profits after the NYSE listing, which I can't make head nor tail of - I seem to end up the wrong side of the arbitrage every time, so I'm deffo not wild about the NYSE listing (although to be frank, that's mostly for selfish reasons). As for aim, it does have a terrible reputation forallegedly sharp practice, and lost fortunes, and I should have stuck to my self imposed ban from aim three years ago when I first invested in bur. Other PIs and funds will no doubt have a similar policy, which narrows the pool of potential investors.

[djderry] 03/3/2021 22:22

Hi time_traveller,I note your comments and we can agree to disagree.
I have most on here filtered but will respond as follows.
Investing is not about looking at the share price.
Investing is not about reacting to the movements of a share price.
An investor doesn't think something is 'wrong' because a shareprice is disconnected from the intrinsic value of the company.
An investor does not request management to become promoters or cheerleaders for the stock.
An investor does not require others to validate his or her investment decisions.
An investor knows that he or she will have long periods of ' underperfomance' of a company's shareprice.
It's just business as usual.
An investor knows better than to spend his or her valuable time looking at shareprice fluctuations.

[ptolemy] 02/3/2021 16:29

Speculation about sell orders, manipulation, etc. Some of you seem to be missing the obvious.

Ptolemy - 25 Jun 2020 - 18602 - BURF is a dream stock for a trader. It is the largest AIM company, so liquid. Has a monthly share t/o in excess of 300 million, no stamp duty, and (this is the best bit) the bid/offer spread is 0.2% because it's on the SETS electronic order book. It doesn't get any better.

It's so attractive to a trader. Daily price movements of 5% are common, Cap of 1.3bn, between 500-2500 trades a day, 20k-50k trades per month....

I know people who trade it a dozen times a day. They don't care if BURF sells oranges from a street barrow in London. It's simply one of the most attractive stocks for a trader. As a matter of interest what is their business? On second thoughts better not say, it might affect my views. ;-)

[compo62] 02/3/2021 15:39

Whatever it was, it looks like the order is now filled. As you were...