Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[tradertrev] 01/10/2020 09:46

MF this is NOT an investment fund - we own the manager so it is an operating company.
Should be valued on a price to book multiple based on sustainable ROE and growth, or potentially P/E multiple if the earnings volatility ever reduces.

[kaos3] 01/10/2020 09:45

sometimes the shorts have no directional open position!!!

they do it because they write derivative paper and have to "cover" open positions in the paper they wrote.

[syoun2] 01/10/2020 09:38

Yes is going to be interesting to see if Gladstone reduce there position today. Even better if they close it.

[mad foetus] 01/10/2020 09:37

There is a big debate to be had about whether BUR should've valued as an investment fund, with NAV as the benchmark and a premium or discount according to how it is performing, or as a growth company generating impressive profits and a very strong IRR. That's the tension, but if you say FY profits will be in the region of $400m and have been growing at a CAGR of 35%, it's a cash generating beast in an uncorrelated asset class and that should imo command top dollar

[syoun2] 01/10/2020 09:36

Still down from the big drop but done a bit of trading and over last few days closing the gap. £9 a share will give me break even

[deanmatlazin] 01/10/2020 09:36

Thanks Edmond. Look like someone is sweating right now. LOL

[1aconic] 01/10/2020 09:35

Gladstone tried, failed and then increased again. Still open at 1.75%. Gladstone have been very erratic and made some strange decisions. They've made lots of reductions at one price and then subsequently increased again at a lower price. A lot of the time it looked like they were covering bases then happy to extend again when a rise didn't happen. For instance: Increased 0.05% on 3rd Aug 2020, day high 564.80, low 539.40 (most of day over 550).
Decreased 0.06% on 30th July 2020, day high 602, low 557 (most of day over 570).

Increased 0.13% on 1st July 2020, day's high was 480 with a low of 450.
Increased 0.12% on 29th June 2020, day's high was 485 with a low of 457.
Increased 0.12% on 24th June 2020, day's high was 548 with a low of 495.
Increased 0.07% on 19th June 2020, day's high was 509 with a low of 487.
Increased 0.10% on 15th June 2020, day's high was 520 with a low of 485.

Decreased 0.15% on 8th June 2020, day's high was 589 with a low of 564.
Decreased 0.11% on 5th June 2020, day's high was 595 with a low of 530.
Decreased 0.06% on 4th June 2020, day's high was 529 with a low of 488.

[edmondj] 01/10/2020 09:35

Kuvari edged their short up to 0.52% on 3 Sep, not looking as astute as their medium-term bet against Kier:

[deanmatlazin] 01/10/2020 09:29

Have the shorters close their position yet from last time. Can anyone find it? Because if they dont, this will go a lot higher in a short space of time

[1aconic] 01/10/2020 09:29

StockValue: Indeed... Bur's a bit more difficult to get your head round than most though so might take a bit longer! Slow and steady is good... so much growth potential that it would be a shame to ever get a "has it got too bubbly" dilemma...

[williamcooper104] 01/10/2020 09:27

Prior to today's results and share price move over last 48 hours LIT was on about 1.6x NAV (but with no unrealised fair value gains) v Bur on c1x (with little value for Peterson - Peterson accounts for most of Burs fair value/unrealised gains) LIT is tiny - sub £100m so no liquidity if you want to get out when things go wrong - all things equal Bur should be on a premium to LIT

[williamcooper104] 01/10/2020 09:16

Don't think there's any US comps - IMF Bentham - ASX listed. MANO and LIT - UK listed

[stockvalue] 01/10/2020 09:06

@1aconic Greenblatt used to say the market gets it usually right within 2 years.

[1aconic] 01/10/2020 09:04

I had 40k in BUR when MW hit. 14 months later and an insane amount more ploughed in I just went green (however temporarily). Really hope there are a lot of long term holders on here in a similar position today or very soon. Hopefully in another 14 months we'll be back where we should be and all see it for the insane buying opp it gave. Good moment to say thank you to all the quality contributers on here who've helped me keep faith through the dark times. GLA

[lomax99] 01/10/2020 09:02

May sell a few when we get to the last placing price.....

[stoxx67] 01/10/2020 09:02

about bloody time ;)


excellent news, excellent profit

first target 735, then 840.

long term , should be back to mid teens, some idiot on this board said would never see mid teens on this share price again, wait until the Yanks get their teeth into this.

[stockvalue] 01/10/2020 09:01

@74tom i have looked at some buy-side research of BUR competitors. They often come to the conclusion that BUR is way cheaper on almost every metric. My personal opinion is that BUR is ridiculously cheap below 10. But i was of course wrong last year the same time when i thought the market would figure it out faster.

[kaos3] 01/10/2020 09:01

buyers

1. holders before today
2. buyers today - listing time period
3. first US movers after the listing
4. broader investing public

long weeks of buying before us imho

[74tom] 01/10/2020 08:54

Was tempted to buy yesterday but held off, but bought a long term holding at £6.80 this morning as those figures are exceptional vs market cap. Plan to research US comparatives today, however hard to see the Yanks not valuing this significantly higher?

[deanmatlazin] 01/10/2020 08:53

if it is not because of muddy water false reports/allegations - this share price should be around £20.

It is a long way to go back up to £20 but i think we will reach there again.

[sportbilly1976] 01/10/2020 08:52

Holding for second target here...

[1aconic] 01/10/2020 08:48

Huge order just gone in??? bid ask is showing 741.40 / 748.80 and has stalled...

[time_traveller] 01/10/2020 08:44

Who said £7?

Creamed off about 10% but the rest in for the ride to £16

[syoun2] 01/10/2020 08:44

Volume not massive considering announcements, I think some are still holding there powder dry. Lots of movement still to come today.