My assumption is that YPF will settle for $10n present value on the back of some payment arrangement and BUR gets approx $4bn. After charges/bonuses etc, $15/share balance sheet value. I’m staying patient |
Only a month to go to the first anniversary of Judge Preska's decision re quantum of damages and judgement interest rate ( 5.42%) in the Petersen matter.Back of the envelope calculations,another $900 million due.
$360 million approx due to Bur. |
I expect burford to be in the oil business like it or not to get any money from Argentina Massive reserves to be appropriatedOver time |
They don't deserve to have a negotiated deal that lowers the full award plus interest. Not only that, Burford shareholders also deserve the full amount that's why we're here. |
He adds that The payment instrument is far from being defined and will depend on the Argentine economic situation when it comes to negotiating. Shares, bonds, equity, in installments...anything goes, but nothing today. |
From Seb Burford is not seeking to settle the ruling for $2 billion. This is very far from what they are looking for. I don't know if they are trying to leak a Government offer to Burford, but that figure is very wrong.hTTps://www.clarin.com/economia/reunion-secreta-titular-ypf-kicillof-moneda-aire_0_Q8PPNDKATM.htmlThe clock runs against them with a trial that is at the head of the Argentine State with unseizable goods. The amount of the judgement is devalued at US$ 1.3 billion in Burford's balance sheets. The answer of the lawyers is not simple. But they risk that the vulture fund seeks to fix about US$ 2 billion alongside the pressure on Judge Loretta Preska to place the responsibility on YPF, which is embargoable. |
 Just in from Seb :
BUR's pleadings re YPF :
YPF judgment creditors: "That evidence begins with the February 2012 memorandum from Argentine Secretary of Energy Daniel Cameron to Argentina’s appointed member of the YPF board. In that memorandum, Cameron laid out two routes for acquiring control: first, “under the rules of [YPF’s] own bylaws,” which “implies moving forward with a stock tender offer,” or second, through “expropriation,” which would allow Argentina “to take control of the company without prior payment" A tender offer would cost Argentina “between 11 billion and 14.5 billion dollars,” so Cameron concluded “[t]he only way to go is expropriation.”;
YPF judgment creditors: "That inference of causation is confirmed by the April 17, 2012 speech to the Argentine Congress by Axel Kicillof, in his dual role as YPF’s Vice-Intervenor and Argentina’s Secretary of Economic Policy and Development Planning. In that speech—one day after the intervention—Kicillof unambiguously declared that YPF would do nothing at all to enforce the Bylaws, openly mocking as “fools … those who think that the State has to be stupid and buy everything according to the law of YPF itself, respecting its bylaws,” and dismissing the tender-offer provisions as a “bear trap.”
YPF judgment creditors: "Even if Argentina and YPF could somehow avoid their contractual obligations under the Bylaws, they would still remain bound by their equally clear promises in the IPO prospectus and subsequent SEC filings, which deliberately induced massive and concrete reliance on the part of Plaintiffs and other investors."
YPF judgment creditors: "YPF not only failed to carry out its promises to investors to police Argentina’s violations, but independently breached the Bylaws by taking actions that the Bylaws expressly prohibited".
Strong stuff!
GLA |
Hi guys,
Maybe they should have put the detail in bold :
.."In addition to the approval of KPMG LLP's appointment as Burford's independent registered public accounting firm and the authorization of the board of directors to agree upon KPMG LLP's remuneration,Burford is taking the opportunity, in anticipation of a change to full US issuer status this year, to propose a series of amendments to Burford's articles of incorporation to bring them more in keeping with typical US market norms and to adopt current best practices as advised by US counsel.
HTH |
DekleWe don't know what it is about yet.Could be a anything you want to dream of.You have to wait. |
What's the EGM for? |
it looks good -
Milei was given podium at WEF. so in the loop
now he transfers gold into the lions cave...
something deep is going on and is bur positive.
PS - and if gold gets revalued - bingo - all happy |
Seb just sent a letter to his clients on this issue. He says:
“ In just seven days, the Milei administration announced plans to pre-fund interest payments on dollar-denominated sovereign debt and revealed that Argentina’s gold reserves were sent to Europe in June. With YPF judgment creditors enforcing the 2023 ruling in New York, England, and Ireland, President Milei authorized transferring valuable Argentine assets to jurisdictions where they could be seized with a court order. While we acknowledge that seizing assets owned by a sovereign state is complex and that the government likely consulted legal advisors who assured these assets are safe from creditors, Argentina’s history of courts ordering asset attachments makes these transfers intriguing.”
Then he added:
“The fact that these assets could be seized and used to satisfy court-ordered awards indicates that, if approved by the courts, the government might settle with YPF judgment creditors without requiring Argentine Congress’s approval. Moreover, if these assets are seized, the Milei administration would be ‘paying’ without appearing willing to pay, reinforcing the public perception that creditors are “a bunch of vultures” after the country’s assets, even though these creditors are not.” |
Some good pointed posts from Seb hTTps://x.com/sebastianmaril/status/1814654199889645948?s=46&t=vgRcMH1ViVAUBW46YvlN9wArgentina assets being deposited in Switzerland, London and New York.Politically the President has to get approval from congress but stabilising the country back in the world's financial system includes having a plan to behave legally. He looks to be getting there step by step. |
in the chart all the present known and unknown facts are included. not just value. including timing of value realisation. on that you add human psychology, markets, politics, future costs of capital, liquidity needs etc.
all of that builds up a chart. not just preska decisions speculation |
How can a chart factor in the outcome of Preska's rulings ?
A chart might tell you that they have tended to come out mid-dayish on a Friday, but more than that they're agnostic, surely ? |
chart as i see it |
From memory the current problem is the forecasted earnings over the next couple of years are flat to lower.
Will the growth resume or are the forecasts wrong?
Someone with a bit more time can correct me if I am wrong. |
This stock is worth 50+ by 2018 valuation standards. It actually is worth that now. And a lot of people will be unhappy not to have invested at the current price. |
"When is this going to be 20 pound plus"
£20? August 2018! |
12th of never |
When is this going to be 20 pound plus with Argentina win and others in the pipeline |
Ashmore latest :
.."Argentina: President Javier Milei postponed increases to fuel taxes and utility prices that would have added 1.2% to monthly inflation. Argentina has been running a budget surplus over the first five months of the year, reducing the urgency of increasing tax revenues and allowing the President to eliminate economic distortions at a more cautious pace.
Last Thursday, Finance Minister Luis Caputo said “energy tariffs are a fine harmony between reducing subsides and inflation… but the priority is to lower inflation.” He reiterated that Argentina would not devalue the peso again..." |
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