Buffettique Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 09/11/2009 13:27

So he has increased his exposure into 'the biggest US haulier of products such as corn and coal', ie the transportation of food and energy. That dosen't seem to be quite the same as "an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States".
It sounds more like a defensive position into infrastructure and essential commodities.


Buffett firm sees profits triple



Warren Buffett is considered one of the world's greatest investors


Billionaire Warren Buffett's investment firm has reported that profits almost tripled in the third quarter.

Berkshire Hathaway said its net profit was $3.2bn (£1.9bn) in the three months to September, compared to $1.1bn in the same period last year.

But most of that was due to an unrealised $1.1bn gain on some derivatives its insurance unit holds.

Mr Buffett last week said he was taking control of a US railroad in his biggest deal to date.

Berkshire agreed to buy the stock that it does not already own in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), the biggest US haulier of products such as corn and coal, for about $26bn in cash and stock.

Mr Buffett, the world's richest man last year, said that the deal was "an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States".

The third-quarter results do not include that deal.

Excluding the derivative and investment gains, Berkshire's operating profit in the third quarter was flat at $2.06bn.

The company's revenue was $29.9bn, up from $27.9bn a year ago.

Berkshire has major investments in such companies as beverage giant Coca-Cola and US bank Goldman Sachs.

[traderabc] 31/10/2009 11:16

Buffet gets a mention in the first video.

On the Edge with Max Keiser - 30 October 2009 (1/4)

[gsands] 27/10/2009 22:30

Peter Schiff is absolutely right:

[traderabc] 27/10/2009 10:56

I expect Buffet is a firm believer in Milton Friedmans 'global free market' doctrine.

Kick It Over Manifesto


We, the undersigned, make this accusation: that you, the
teachers of neoclassical economics and the students that you
graduate, have perpetuated a gigantic fraud upon the world.
You claim to work in a pure science of formula and law, but yours is a
social science, with all the fragility and uncertainty that this entails.
We accuse you of pretending to be what you are not.

You hide in your offices, protected by your mathematical jargon,
while in the real world, forests vanish, species perish and human
lives are callously destroyed. We accuse you of gross negligence in
the management of our planetary household.

You have known since its inception that one of your measures of
economic progress, the Gross Domestic Product, is fundamentally
flawed and incomplete, and yet you have allowed it to become a global
standard, reported day in, day out in every form of media. We accuse
you of recklessly projecting an illusion of progress.

You have done great harm, but your time is coming to a close. Your
systems are crumbling, your flaws increasingly laid bare. An economic
revolution has begun, as hopeful and determined as any in history. We
will have our clash of economic paradigms, we will have our moment
of truth, and out of each will come a new economics – open, holistic,
human‑scale.

On campus after campus, we will chase you old goats out of power.
Then, in the months and years that follow, we will begin the work of
reprogramming your doomsday machine.

Sign the manifesto at
kickitover.org

[bigbigdave] 26/10/2009 20:17

BBC2 9pm 'The World's greatest Money Maker' - all about Warren Buffett.

[traderabc] 26/10/2009 20:05

Max saying it as it is, this is probably the truth, unlike the last post. Buffet is mentioned in this.

Max Keiser - Face Off - "Is the Crisis Over?" (1/2)



PART 2

[traderabc] 26/10/2009 20:03

Warren Buffett: Crisis, what crisis?

The world's greatest investor is weathering the financial crisis by practising what he preaches.

One of Warren Buffett's favourite sayings about the market is: "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy".

When the market was fearful last September, Mr Buffett was greedy, putting $5bn (£3bn) into the investment bank Goldman Sachs on exceptionally favourable terms.

He says he was only able to negotiate the deal because not many people had $5bn to hand at that particular moment.

But there is no doubt Mr Buffett's public show of confidence in the company was, in itself, a valuable asset to Goldman.

[tanners] 17/7/2009 22:15

Blimey Liarspoker.....that is super specialist, but I can see the attraction, especially for a coin enthusiast such as yourself!

I've followed your coin thread with interest in the past, particularly as it is something that I find quite appealing.........at the moment I've only got got an extremely modest collection of a few goldies, such as Krugerrands and Yankee 1 oz dollar coins - there's something special about a pure gold coin imo that just can't be beat!

[liarspoker] 17/7/2009 21:20

tanners - sorry for lack of reply but only just now looked at this thread.

Re APG - Don't forget the planning permission or that Karmin was building a stake at higher prices. More when I have more time.

PS Also look at AVR - think I had it down as a buy up to 7.6p.

[tanners] 17/7/2009 21:13

Anyone got any views on Cadbury Schweppes......I seem to recall WB weighing in with a few hundred dollars worth or so about a year ago?

[topvest] 12/7/2009 08:00

Yes, I'm reading some of his books at the moment; he's a very smart individual and there is a fair amount to learn from his approach.

[rainmaker] 12/7/2009 01:13

Great to see a Warren Buffett thread

regards

[tanners] 11/7/2009 23:19

Hi Liarspoker!

Been having a cursory look at Airsprung and blimey what a mixed bag that one is!

I've analysed (briefly!) the results over the last 9 years which show t/o falling from a high of 71M in 2001, down to 39M in 05, back to 50M in 08 and then dropping to 42M for 09.

During the last 9 years APG has been profitable 4 times and loss making 5 times and has gone through a number of acquisitions, disposals and a couple of changes of management.

One of the reasons that the Company has managed to retain a reasonably strong balance sheet throughout these trials and tribulations is that there's been a number of property disposals duirng this time which have raised about 8M, the last being in 04.

Now, I realise that it's the here and now that is all important, but I like to get a flavour of what may have gone wrong and why!

Obviously the main attractor is this apparent large site that they own at Trowbridge, c. 25 acres I think, which they said a couple of years ago was being earmarked for rationalisation, leading to some sub letting/selling.

Then the credit crunch hit and it seems that this has been mothballed......given that this potentially substantial asset is the most compelling reason to invest, then I can't see much movement here for some time yet.

The main business, whilst improving in the last 6 months is strongly at the whim of wider economic conditions of course, and in the last statement they indicated that increasing raw material prices could cause further discomfort for them this year, even if sales do stabilise.

The other bugbear is the pension deficit and a word of warning here......it was reduced from 6.2M to 2.9M in 2008, but mainly because of favourable incraeses in bond rates, which could as easily move against them in future.

Of course it does have a comparatively cheap M/Cap, around 5M, but for good reason; though in fairness if market conditions remain at worst stable the new management (who took over the reins a couple of years ago) may be able to unlock some of the value that undoubtedly resides here.......the big question is when!

It's certainly interesting, but not quite compelling enough for me at the momoent, tho I will remain a keen watcher.........probably as it rises ;-)

[traderabc] 25/6/2009 14:56

This scenario is more realistic.

Bilderberg 2009 Intel Already Proving Accurate
Veteran Bilderberg researchers Jim Tucker and Daniel Estulin hit the mark once again as insider info becomes reality
James Corbett
The Corbett Report
24 July, 2009




Observers of the annual elitist confab known as Bilderberg have long known that plans discussed at the conference quickly become reality. In 2002, Bilderberg researcher Jim Tucker correctly predicted that the Iraq war would start in March 2003 (not late 2002, as many were predicting at the time). In 2006, Daniel Estulin correctly forecast the popping of the housing bubble and subsequent economic crash, a possibility that most talking heads in the corporate media were laughing at at the time. In 2008, Tucker forecast a dramatic drop in oil prices while most analysts were fretting about the possibility of $200 a barrel oil. Tucker and Estulin have proven so stunningly accurate in their predictions not because they have a crystal ball, but because they have sources inside the Bilderberg Group and other organizations where financial oligarchs and their political puppets make decisions about our geopolitical future.

[traderabc] 25/6/2009 14:55

I'm appalled at his support of the central bankers, and I wouldn't be so sure about deflation either.

Warren Buffett to CNBC: U.S. Economy In “Shambles̶1; .. No Signs of Recovery Yet


Alex Crippen
CNBC
Thursday, June 25, 2009

In a live interview on CNBC today, Warren Buffett said there has been little progress over the past few months in the “economic war” being fought by the country. “We haven’t got the economy moving yet,” he told Becky Quick.

While the economy is a “shambles̶1; and likely to stay that way for some time, he remains optimistic there will eventually be a recovery over a period of years.

[liarspoker] 23/4/2009 11:46

Any thoughts on FIFO or LIFO accounting then Maestro ?

[liarspoker] 15/4/2009 22:57

No, no - not showing my age. I just read somewhere that the 1951 edition was the one too buy.....so I did. :O)

I've looked at Sinosoft previously but never bought in. I must admit that I did not look into it in detail but I'll give it another once over....twice. :O)

A few other net nets are MAE, NAR, IVS, DWSN, AFC, ACR & IGE though I don't think that I'll invest in any of them. They all pass the ( Current Asset less All Liabilities ) less 30% test but it's hard to find companies that break the ( Cash + ( Stock X .5 ) + ( Receivables X .75 ) ) less All Liabilities ( let alone subtracting 30% from that.

I like the second formula though - cash is cash after all. I like low bank debt too, perhaps a divi and positive retained earnings. I also deduct any tax assets as they only last for a year or less mostly. Personal experience/taste goes quite a long way here imo.

I'll have a look at MUBL as well when I have time but I'm just busy going through AIM stocks to find net net shares. :O)

[tanners] 15/4/2009 22:18

Blimey Liarspoker, the 1951 Edition - are you showing your age there ;-)

I'm a relative youngster with the 6th Edition!

Had a quick look at ITM but like you say very much jam tomorrow and the ongoing losses are eating into it's net cap status.....a stock that I've been monitoring for sometime (tho no position) is Sinosoft which is at a decent net cap candidiadte as it trades at about a 70% discount to working cap and is profitable.

However, the downside (in my book at least!) are that a) it's a technology Company and b) it's Chinese; which whether fairly or not, in my view heightens the risk.........however the price has been hammered and it now looks quite compelling!

PS I note that MUBL showed some signs of life late doors.......given that you've traded it before and as a fellow Graham/Buffett fan I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on it!

[liarspoker] 14/4/2009 21:18

If it was a tad patronising tanners then it was done unintentially. Many people misunderstand net net plays and I guess that is one reason why the net nets could take a long time to correct.

Have a look at ITM for a GBP 20m Bond portfolio ( plus cash ) for sale at half price. It's all a bit jam tomorrow there for me though as I prefer jam ( earnings or at least revenue ) now ( your point exactly ).

Graham explains FIFO and LIFO in SA brilliantly imo. The analyst of course does not have a perfect insight into many of the company's workings especially if they are a PI !! More transparency needed perhaps although in certain cases you can guess what inventory does ( ie food retailers etc even small comps like HDT can be guessed fairly close ). Graham also spend a lesson ( or part of a lesson ) in his lectures. Now, aren't they a great read ( well most of it anyway ). :O)

Same with Buffett partnership letters - some great insights there.

Funnily enough there are many more true net net stocks on the US market than on the LSE. Perhaps that has to do with the size of the US. ;o)

Edit: Which edition of Security Analysis do you have ? Mine is the 1951 version.