Buffettique Discussion Threads

[bravedave] 27/9/2002 20:12

Thought I'd post this in case anyone would like to watch it.

Best Regards

Dave

[piscean] 27/9/2002 13:14

very bright or just access to a lot of influntial people...

[mad mac] 27/9/2002 11:20

I remember that in The Times for 1 January 2000, Koletsky predicted that the Nasdaq would peak early in the year and then collapse. He called it a month or so too early, but basically he was spot on (wish I had gone short at 5000!!!)

I am currently depressed about the future of Britain due to small-mindedness of management in government and business. Where are the idealists, the selfless dedicated individuals, the Utopians, the philanthropists? All I can see are miserable organisations that refuse to take steps for the better "because that is not our policy". London Underground being my current enemy No. 1, and if you were in London last Wednesday you will know why.

The only light that I can see is that the voluntary sector and Clare Short's Department for International Development are actually doing some good in this world of ours ... and also that thanks to DVD, decent home cinema is now a reality for many people (there, some escapism for you).

[jl202] 27/9/2002 09:36

The article below is still relevant even though it was written in Feb 2002. Extract:

"Given the above, IRN expect UK economic growth to moderate in 2002 and one quarter of Payback Time for 2002 would not be unexpected, especially in the first half of the year. However, this will allow more stable (e.g. restrained growth) to come about towards the end of the year. In other words, 2002 will see a relatively smooth transition to a lower gear of spending. The crunch will not come but a smooth transition to a lower gear is likely. Inflation will remain under control, principally due to the consumer’s continued thirst for a bargain. Slightly higher unemployment, possibly higher taxes and the need to repay the debts accumulated in 2001 will slow consumer spending, which will either negate the need for interest rate rises or keep these rises to modest levels.

As Mervyn King, deputy governor of the Bank of England pointed out it at the end of last year, Britain’s recent performance was "remarkably good" but the economy might face a "bumpier ride" this year. In the next twelve months, the UK economy will begin to rebalance itself, with domestic demand slowing as the world economy recovers."



According to one chart in the article (can't post it) we should expect a period of "pay back time" to be going on right now - which it arguably is, prior to a bumper Christmas, which everyone must surely expect. Going forward to 2003, I expect we will have continuing slight upwards pressure on interest rates but with the persistant prediliction for cuts holding ground. The post christmas slow down will coincide with expectations of the immenent tax hit launched by Brown to pour down the NHS. As stocks will have made a new low by this point, if they haven't already (sic) ...



.. we could expect the markets, together with the war on Iraq, to be progressing nicely. But I think the consumer will start to be squeezed. Together with a small rise in unemployment, the main story 2003 is likely to be the worsening of Government finances and the political fallout. Brown will want to be making more tax rises in April don't forget,,

WRT house prices, ongoing price stability will push more and more people to buy now and pay later, which will perpetuate current price levels. With no significant external downward pressure or inflation, 89-91 will not be repeated,,

dyor imho

[jl202] 27/9/2002 09:12

From the header article, I find this comment striking: "Neither did anyone mention the economic statistics which show, for example, that household debt burdens are actually quite modest in America and Britain."

hmmmmm, what does he see that I don't? Does he mean that because the interest rate is low the debt cost is low, even though the actual volume of debt is high? If so, I have to say this strikes me as a bit of a gamble,,

[jl202] 26/9/2002 17:30

Anatole Kaletsky




World-wide recognised Economist
Anatole Kaletsky is widely recognised and respected for his views and analyses on the state of the economy not only in the UK but world-wide. He is also the principal economic commentator and Associate Editor of ‘The Times’ in London, where he writes a twice-weekly column on economics, financial markets and economic policy.

He started his journalistic career with ‘The Economist’, where he was a financial writer from 1976 to 1979. He then worked for twelve years on the ‘Financial Times’ in a number of posts including New York Bureau Chief, Washington Correspondent, International Economics Correspondent and Moscow Correspondent. Since 1996 he has been Economics Editor of ‘The Times’ and is responsible for the paper’s economic and business news coverage.

Anatole Kaletsky was born in 1952 in Moscow, and as a child lived in Poland and Australia. He has lived in England and the US since 1966. He was educated at King’s College, Cambridge where he graduated with a first class honours degree in Mathematics and at Harvard University, where he was a Kennedy Memorial Scholar and gained a master’s degree in Economics.

In 1980 and again in 1992 he received the Newspaper Publishers Association’s British Press Award for ‘Specialist Writer of the Year’ and in 1996 he was named ‘Newspaper Commentator of the Year’ in the BBC’s "What the Papers Say" awards. In 1997 he won the Wincott Award for Financial Journalist of the Year administrated by the Institute of Economic Affairs.

In addition to his writing he is frequently called upon for radio and television interviews as well as for speaking engagements in Britain, Europe and the US. His provocative style makes him ideal for key note speeches and he is excellent when participating in panel debates or moderating conferences.




Professional activities and publications include:


Economic Adviser, Unigestion Asset Management, Geneva
1993- Consultant, G7 Group, Washington, DC
1991- Member of Advisory Board, HM Government Know-How Fund for Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union
1990 - Member of Editorial Board, International Economy, Washington
84-85- Consultant, UN Development Committee and UN Conference on Trade and Development
1985 - The Cost of Default (Priority Press New York, 1985)
Fellow, Royal Society of Arts

[analyst] 07/5/2002 08:44

Classic Charlie Munger comment at AGM: "Sewers have a better name than this derivatives business."

[energyi] 06/5/2002 23:57

Scrip,
Do tell us more

[execline] 05/5/2002 20:09

Commonly Referred To Sayings of Warren Buffett

o The critical investment factor is determining the intrinsic value of a business and paying a fair or bargain price.

o Never invest in a business you cannot understand.

o Risk can be greatly reduced by concentrating on only a few holdings.

o Stop trying to predict the direction of the stock market, the economy, interest rates, or elections.

o Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.

o You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.

o Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.

o Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

o It is optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.

o As far as you are concerned, the stock market does not exist. Ignore it.

o The ability to say "no" is a tremendous advantage for an investor.

o Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.

o Lethargy, bordering on sloth should remain the cornerstone of an investment style.

o An investor should act as though he had a lifetime decision card with just twenty punches on it.

o Wild swings in share prices have more to do with the "lemming- like" behaviour of institutional investors than with the aggregate returns of the company they own.

o As a group, lemmings have a rotten image, but no individual lemming has ever received bad press.

o An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes.

o "Turn-arounds" seldom turn.

o Is management rational?

o Is management candid with the shareholders?

o Does management resist the institutional imperative?

o Do not take yearly results too seriously. Instead, focus on four or five-year averages.

o Focus on return on equity, not earnings per share.

o Calculate "owner earnings" to get a true reflection of value.

o Look for companies with high profit margins.

o Growth and value investing are joined at the hip.

o The advice "you never go broke taking a profit" is foolish.

o It is more important to say "no" to an opportunity, than to say "yes".

o Always invest for the long term.

o Does the business have favourable long term prospects?

o It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

o Remember that the stock market is manic-depressive.

o Buy a business, don't rent stocks.

o Does the business have a consistent operating history?

o Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.

o An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.

[energyi] 05/5/2002 18:34

Best Investor Ever! Old-fashioned Values.

What's Warren up to?

Best investor ever. What's he investing in? What's he saying?
This thread is to keep an active eye on his sayings and investing strategy.

Start with:

Charlie Munger (WB's partner) interview:

FS's Buffet Resource Page:

WB's letters to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders: