British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[geckotheglorious] 10/6/2024 17:32

U.S. crackdown on illegal e-cigarettes, JUUL development, and bullish analyst vibes

The tobacco sector has been busy over the last few weeks as value and dividend investors take a harder look at potential consumer staples stocks in general.

There have also been some major regulatory developments. The Justice Department and U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced on Monday the creation of a federal multi-agency task force to combat the illegal distribution and sale of e-cigarettes. Along with the FDA and the Justice Department, the task force will bring together multiple law enforcement partners, including the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives; U.S. Marshals Service; U.S. Postal Inspection Service; and Federal Trade Commission to coordinate and streamline efforts to bring all available criminal and civil tools to bear against the illegal distribution, and sale of e-cigarettes, vapes, and other electronic nicotine delivery system responsible for nicotine addiction among American youth.

"Unauthorized e-cigarettes and vaping products continue to jeopardize the health of Americans — particularly children and adolescents — across the country," stated Acting Associate Attorney General Benjamin Mizer.

The 2023 National Youth Tobacco Survey found that about 2.1 million youths reported currently using e-cigarettes, which reflects a considerable decline from 5.3 million youth in 2019. However, 10% of high school students and almost 5% of middle school students reported currently using e-cigarettes, and more than 1 in 4 of those e-cigarette users reported daily e-cigarette use. Manufacturers, distributors, and retailers were noted to market a wide range of products that appeal directly to school-age users, such as candy and fruit flavors, some of which come in devices designed to be easily concealed.

The FDA has authorized the sale of 23 specific tobacco-flavored e-cigarette products and devices to date. These are the only e-cigarette products that currently may be lawfully marketed and sold in the United States.

Also of note, the FDA said last week it was rescinding the market denial order issued to JUUL in 2022 based on new information and case law.

Looking at Wall Street's latest breakdowns on the tobacco sector, Bank of America recently reiterated a Buy rating on Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) due to robust recent performances from IQOS and ZYN and the overall resilience of the company's combustible business. The firm also has a bull rating on British American Tobacco (BTI) on the expectation for long-term mid-single digit growth driven by NGP potential, U.S. volume improvement, and a high free cash flow yield.

[action] 08/6/2024 23:48

Seen higher lows on chart which is positive

[montyhedge] 04/6/2024 15:16

The part high cash flows I like.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/6/2024 13:39

#Fenners66, holding both IMPS/BATS is exactly where I think holders should position ahead of any/inevitable consolidation as markets/market share events unfold, could take 5-10 years, but sooner or later it will happen IMO..

Ready and waiting.. :o)

[philanderer] 04/6/2024 13:22

BAT is down 1.75% after its half-year update this morning revealed a drop in sales and profits.

"Trading is 'in line' with management’s expectations, but those expectations were not particularly stretching as the company resets (“invests̶1;), again, this year," says analyst Rae Maile at Panmure Gordon.

He notes that 'quality growth' is the mantra at BAT but "the issue is the lack of 'quantity'."



proactiveinvwstors.co.uk

[fenners66] 04/6/2024 11:55

I have had a bit of a root around for charts on US smoking and those I have found only go up to 2020

Sales declined from 21.12 to 10.79 billion packs during 2000–2020 AAPC = −3.5%
In 2015-16 there was a drop of around 10%
But 16-20 its been flat to a small rise.

So the impact of vapes perhaps to see a year on year drop of 9%?
I guess is at this end of the curve its significant.
That trend continuing for a few years will put a dent in volume.
I expect that would give a further catalyst to industry consolidation.

I reckon for the next few years (or as long as they have got) it will be about positioning BATS / IMB et al
to see who gets dominance in the coming merger.

Holding both may be the strategy

[topazfrenzy] 04/6/2024 10:42

Good results. Buy the dip.

[philanderer] 04/6/2024 10:05

Bad market day for reporting.

Happy to hold.

[montyhedge] 04/6/2024 08:44

I thought it was good, cash keeps rolling in. But for most of the market today it's a risk off day. In the meantime ex dividend 27th, 58.88p that will do me.

[fenners66] 04/6/2024 08:19

"the U.S. macro environment is showing some early signs of recovery, consumers remain stretched, with combustibles industry volume down c.9% YTD. "

Since combustables are about 80% of their business - that is a significant drop in the USA
Wonder whether Ozempic could possibly be helping people to stop smoking
they say it has other benefits besides getting people to stop eating.

Having said that I have no idea what % falls there have been in previous years , but it does sound a lot in 6
months.

[montyhedge] 04/6/2024 08:05

FTSE 100 down, of course Bats down with it, but on that trading update which all on course for this cash cow should be up.

[berny3] 04/6/2024 07:47

laws are being enforced - look at the change in Louisiana with the vape directory and BATS taking the majority of the move away from illicit back to legal vapes. 900m buy back next year.

[plastow] 04/6/2024 07:47

Governments need to ban dodgy vaps asap can't see it tanking

[unastubbs] 04/6/2024 07:42

I just thought the stuff about headwinds from illegal vape products in the US would be enough to unsettle the market. With this share, I've learned, results must shine just for the stock to stand still.

Happy to be proved wrong 😉

[montyhedge] 04/6/2024 07:40

Looks good to me all on track.

[lovewinshatelosses] 04/6/2024 07:38

Perfectly adequate IMO. Will add if the market sells us off in early trading, but (again, IMO) nothing to scare the horses, so like you, nothing to change the investment thesis I have either. GLA while we wait to see what Mr Market thinks...

[unastubbs] 04/6/2024 07:18

Not great. Expect turbulence today. But nothing to affect my confidence in personal investment case here. Diamond hands and all that ;)

[plastow] 04/6/2024 07:15

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BATS/trading-statement/16501206

[redbaron10] 03/6/2024 23:09

The stick volume is in decline....it is well established though the exit from Russia was hardly mentioned when yoy comparables weren't good last year.The growth story here is in NGP growth as a smokeless alternative.If the growth margins aren't significantly offsetting the highly profitable stick margins then the share price will be buffeted tomorrow.If stick margin improvement with higher pricing with BATS big brands helps H1 all well and good but the market wants trend growth continuity/improvement in the NGP sector.If they disappoint then the market will take this down.IMB is executing strategy well and I expect BATS to do so as well.GLA all LTHs tomorrow

[montyhedge] 03/6/2024 08:42

If update tomorrow decent then no problem, but market always find something they don't like.

[plastow] 03/6/2024 08:09

25 this week me thinks bouncy resistance at that level

[montyhedge] 01/6/2024 21:26

Share of the week Daily Mail yes, Tuesday see what the updates like hopefully not like the last time, disappointing the market.

[car1pet] 01/6/2024 16:38

share of the week in today's Daily Mail. not sure what that means!!

[plastow] 01/6/2024 13:44

https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=BATS.L