British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[rndm355] 05/5/2020 13:58

"Divis, no capital gains for tobacco"

[scobak] 01/5/2020 15:21

We will continue to disagree I am afraid. Does Buffet not use the balance sheet and the value of assets therein as with Ben Graham et al as his primary source of valuation? I would doubt that he would currently be regarding a figure of just shy of £60. as his current intrinsic value.
Interesting topic of course re values and I will end this topic here. I do not want this to descend to the levels of the Centria board.

[minerve 2] 01/5/2020 11:27

scobak

DCFs are assumptions, but some assumptions are better than others. Buffett - the world's greatest investor - used assumptions and used DCF calculations. Are you going to be fool hardy enough to question his methods?

[scobak] 30/4/2020 20:13

I note your comment. We will have to disagree. Your assumptions are just that and I applaud your valid attempt at a valuation. It is not you that I disagree with at all, indeed I congratulate you on your regular inputs which I have valued. My objection to personal use is based purely on that just one metric needs to be slightly out and the whole calculation is worthless.
Perhaps I don't know what I am doing - I do - my methodology is based on other tests whilst also taking into account that investment is an imprecise science.

[minerve 2] 30/4/2020 09:20

DCFs are only as good as the people that do them. That is why, if you have any inclination to be a decent investor, you hone your skills in this regard. Therefore, to you, they are only as good as reading tea leaves because you don't know what you are doing and you don't understand why.

[scobak] 29/4/2020 19:17

DCF are unreliable. I see it as slightly better than reading tea leaves. Sorry.

[minerve 2] 29/4/2020 11:54

I did a DCF calculation on this using the following data:

Rf (risk free rate) 0.59% (20 yr UK Gilt)
Risk Premium 4%.
Zero growth in earnings.

Result, current intrinsic value = £59.49 per share.


Professionals (tobacco analysts), tell me where I am going wrong.

[porsche1945] 29/4/2020 10:23

Should be a defensive company for the years of recession coming, more people will be smoking by the middle of the century than they were at the beginning, Terry Smith who invests in PM gave me that statistic. A company this size will always have minor trouble somewhere same as banks, miners etc, as far as a state Dep investigation goes, no biggy, some on here very naive, they are always just looking for revenue from fines, which get paid to make it go away. Should be safe back to 45 quid.

[simba_] 25/4/2020 09:50

There are more non smokers than there are smokers. I wouldn't expect to see more smokers in this simple. .I've not seen anything that suggests smokers are more likely to be infected. It's the effects on smokers vs non smokers that should be considered, imo.

[minerve 2] 24/4/2020 13:20

Perhaps smoking limits the production or attachment to the ACE2 enzyme.

[p0pper] 24/4/2020 12:17

Possibly smokers lungs so tarred up that the virus can't get through

[eeza] 24/4/2020 12:05

Yes, it's interesting because with compromised lung capacity you would expect the reverse to be true.

[npp62] 24/4/2020 11:23

Yep. French hospitals have noticed how very few of those admitted with CV-19 are smokers.

[eeza] 22/4/2020 22:09

French researchers to test nicotine patches on coronavirus patients
Study – which stresses serious health risks of smoking – suggest substance in tobacco may lower risk of getting coronavirus.....more

[buywell2] 17/4/2020 03:01

IMO one would have to put this chart down as yet another that seems to indicate that
the market is set for another leg down.

Anyone else noticed this on other charts ?

2000p set for a retest ?

[richard xii] 15/4/2020 15:41

I assume the sanctions are not any authorized by the UN but those authorized by the US. If you would expect BAT to comply with US sanctions against Iran would you also expect it to comply say with sanctions authorized by Iran against the US? If this is the case BAT had to decide whether to comply, risk retribution or withdraw from its activities in the US if it did not wish to do business with such an entity.

[philanderer] 14/4/2020 22:43

MARKET REPORT: US criminal probe is a drag for British American Tobacco as it is suspected of breaches of sanctions


Shares in British American Tobacco began the week in the red following reports it is facing a criminal probe in the US over suspected breaches of sanctions.

The FTSE 100-listed cigarette giant is cooperating with the US Department of Justice and an intelligence agency that sits under the US Treasury department, the Office of Foreign Assets Control.

BAT had flagged in its annual report last month it was aware an investigation was under way.

It has declined to say whether the case is a criminal probe – but if it is, then it could be a serious and costly blow for the Lucky Strike and Dunhill maker.

The details are still scant, with neither BAT nor US authorities revealing which country or countries the inquiry is concentrating on.

But Jefferies analysts believe it could relate to an ongoing case in the UK, in which the Serious Fraud Office is examining 'suspicions of corruption' that followed allegations made in The Guardian newspaper about BAT paying bribes in Africa.

Jefferies adopted a wait-and-see approach to the investigation, saying: 'If we are right, and it does relate to the same accusations, the fact this has been ongoing in some form since 2017, with no apparent conclusion (that we are aware of) we would not worry too much about it for now.'

Investors were a little more cautious – with BAT falling 3.4 per cent, or 102p, to 2918.5p.

[simonc5] 14/4/2020 20:39

Was going to buy this share but think i will steer clear after these alleged breaches have been reported

[philanderer] 14/4/2020 12:43

Here's the story that peteriro flagged up..

British American Tobacco shares slipped 4.3%. The Times reported that the Lucky Strike cigarette maker is under investigation in the US over suspected sanctions breaches.

The Department of Justice and the Office of Foreign Assets Control, which is part of the US Department of the Treasury and enforces US trade sanctions, are investigating "suspicions of breach of sanctions", The Times said. It is not clear which territory the regulators are focusing on, the newspaper added.

Alliance News

[simba_] 14/4/2020 10:41

Sanctions?

[peteriro] 14/4/2020 09:02

Looks like something to do with USA sanctions. BATS are under investigation. Cannot believe it myself from a well respected trading company.

[basem1] 14/4/2020 08:42

Any reason for the fall today ?

[skinny] 02/4/2020 11:37

Post 3621 - I posted this yesterday on the IMB thread :-

"It would be in pretty poor taste if it were!

From their website" :-

.