Brighton Pier Share Discussion Threads

[jm6783] 26/7/2024 13:47

Thank you thecroots. Understood.

Any view on what normalised, clean, eps should be ?

Thanks

[thecroots] 26/7/2024 13:11

Jm6783

They didn't make a loss last year. Was just a impairment loss. EBITDA was still positive. This year they have a chargeback reversal which will boost paper profit.

The new note this morning shows an EBITDA profit forecast of £3.7m (Reduced from £5m)

I have also found out that the weather in July this year has so far been the wettest on record for brighton.

[jm6783] 26/7/2024 12:51

Good points bookbroker. But I still think they should be directing as much capital as possible at the golf division. The return on equity for that appears superior to anything else they have and is certainly less weather dependent and seasonal. I really have no idea why they haven’t expanded this division at all in the past 5 years.

The shares look cheap versus book value. However, they are on course for a second consecutive loss, which is very concerning.

[thecroots] 26/7/2024 10:49

No worries Muto, i know Johnson still has the Patisserie Valerie badge hanging over him.

To be fair, he has invested a lot of money in PIER at around 100p.

[muto] 26/7/2024 10:38

Sorry thecroots, what I meant to say was where have all the profits gone from previous years as there appears to been no or very little investment in updating the attractions. I have removed the take take part of the post.

[bookbroker] 26/7/2024 10:33

Admission fee is so derisory it will not have made much difference, suspect that fewer folk are getting out and about, when means fewer visitors. I think people visit piers because they are somewhat old-fashioned, why go for a technical experience when they are numerous other attractions nationwide. Piers are a bit of history, and should be preserved.

[ijamlon] 26/7/2024 09:56

29% is a hell of a drop. Even golf which is largely unaffected by weather is slightly down. Bottom line is they need to come up with a new growth engine otherwise we're going to slowly sink under the weight of upkeep costs, debt and unpredictable weather. Maybe it's cabins / glamping at LWV, maybe it's Virtual Reality experiences, maybe some gambling upgrade on the pier, or maybe it's some other form of leisure or food/drink formula that takes advantage of it's real estate and thrill-seeker footfall. But carrying on as is and hoping for perpetual heatwaves won't work.The good news is that the current share price gives a market cap of next to nothing, so this is mostly already in the price as long as they can maintain some positive cash flow. Considerbale upside is possible

[muto] 26/7/2024 09:51

Having walked alone the pier the other day it is clear Johnson and Co have not reinvested profits made from previous years into new rides. The roller coasters have been there 20+ years. There also seems to be a lot of kiddies rides in place which certainly do not appeal to the teenagers. Overall, the pier looks very run down and needs a complete makeover.

[goldie40] 26/7/2024 09:34

to be fair to them all tourist attractions this year are down due to bad weather all over the easter holidays and weekends

[dartboard1] 26/7/2024 09:17

So last year Ebitda was 4.2m. Analyst forecast for 2024 was 5.5m, and now expecting below that (how much below... that's the question).They're very keen to blame the weather, which is plausible... but I wonder if they have stuffed up in bringing in the admission fee and keeping punters off the pier. Hard to tell, but hopefully the CFO is crunching the numbers and listening to members of the public ... Go and open more golf venues !!!

[dartboard1] 26/7/2024 09:06

Surely global warming would be a positive on the Brighton weather ... in summer.

[thecroots] 26/7/2024 08:53

It cant fall much further!!

The next 10 day weather looks good so it should help..

[pugugly] 26/7/2024 08:46

Surprised share price has not fallen further -Now a gamble on English weather and who would bet on that with climate change and increasing rain and storms.

[thecroots] 26/7/2024 07:09

darn it.

at least its only the pier that's down on previously reported. nothing they can do about the weather I guess.

we need a really good summer weather now...

[thecroots] 23/7/2024 13:16

Although the weather hasn't been great , it is better than last year.

The weather has been OK for the last 2-3 weeks down south.

I am hoping that the Euros and England making the finals may have boosted sales on the pier as they had a big screen showing all the games.

I would have thought they would have done the update at the end of July allowing them to capture the dry spell that is forecast for the next 10 days...

It would be good if that have closed the gap on last year....

[kirmich] 23/7/2024 07:40

Weather is important, but it looks to be changing a bit for the positive

[ijamlon] 23/7/2024 07:02

I think there's a good chance of an update this week. This appalling weather is not going to have helped, patient investors might need to stay patient! On the plus side I note that the majority of recent reviews about LWV are positive - though also a lot of mention about lack of queues.

[dartboard1] 06/7/2024 13:29

Google Paradise Island Golf

[dartboard1] 06/7/2024 13:29

Must be wrong... can't include salaries... so even less of a good earnings indicator.

[davidosh] 05/7/2024 10:26

Is there a link showing all the golf sites?

[dartboard1] 05/7/2024 10:23

Further to this. Cost of sales for golf is 100,000. This must be salaries of attendants, cost of f&b on site, and maybe a few thousand golf balls a year. But not much else. A great business model, but excluding rent seems a bit silly. I've been to the one in Derby. Kids had fun, but it is in need of a bit of a refresh. Looks a bit old and tired, so maybe needs capex of 50k per site and rotate the refresh doing one a year.I'm sure they're on it though and have only been to one.

[dartboard1] 05/7/2024 10:18

People keep raising the 98% GP on the golf.However included in depreciation is the rental costs for the sites. So you have to go down to operating profit to see the return on investment really.Operating profit wise golf is still the best return, but using GP dresses up the return to look a little too good.I agree, golf is non-weather dependent so provides a bit of a hedge there from the other assets.

[thecroots] 05/7/2024 09:42

No problem!