Brady Share Discussion Threads

[muttleyrules] 06/9/2006 08:38

Back from holidays ... as expected a quiet summer ... but fully expect the contracts to roll in from now until the end of the year ... the commodity cycle has not yet rolled over and the product clearly works well. Interim results on Sept 12 will look pretty average (already quantified that they will make a small loss) but outlook statement should be bullish. Perhaps accompanied with a contract win ... here's hoping.

[cyberian] 31/8/2006 16:10

Small buying and narrow spread may indicate some new deals now that the holiday period is nearly over...

[thoughtfull] 11/8/2006 21:09

Only seems to have signed one contract this year of any note? That's pretty poor!

Having signed it, does not mean it is delivered, works or has been accepted by the customer?

Taking on more staff to implement new systems or taking on more staff to solve current problems?

Cash appears to be down since the year end?

Fundamentals going the wrong way, poor news flow and no radical change of direction.

If it has a good first half maybe? But if it looks like a dog,then maybe it is?

[cyberian] 10/8/2006 00:11

Slap appears to have gone which is a shame...anyway, after little to no real follow-through after the last contract win on 24th July I am expecting a small flurry of new deals fairly soon. Most will happen when the main players are back after the summer to sign-off on the deals but maybe one or two wil filter through even during the summer vacation period. I am starting to think that Brady will accumulate cash in 12 months of in excess of the current market capitalisation of circa £7 million...Chairman indicated that they have cash at close 1H of £3.9 million and NO debt. I'll make a sporting bet that the next 12months will see a massive acceleration of contracts/earnings and a potential take-out bid. A couple of more contracts and one could easily see a suitor who could inject BRY into its own customer delivery base at a 80% premium over the current share price Funny things happen and it would depend on the integrity and greater upside a paper offer would make...if all cash, not too sure that the board would willing accept less than a 100% premium. The next 3 months could be very interesting as the stock is quie neglected after a rally into mid-30p level 2/3 months back. Today we have seen a very modest firming which makes me think that a predator would move fairly quickly if at all interested in a bolt-on company Brady may provide at this time in the economic cycle. Just a few rando thoughts and probably very wide of the mark....but who knows!!!?? Finally, the Directors and former Direcors have a bunch of shares and there are likley to be some bored Institutional holdings ...the latter willing sellers. In reality it would need to be an agreed approach to carry the recommendation through IMHO.

[cyberian] 24/7/2006 21:37

Slap must have moved on....he usually has some sensible comment/view on most things...pity. Anyway muttleyrules et al, not looking so bad and the wording of the RNS appears to suggest that there is quite a queue of parties lined-up in discussions with BRY. The more they sign-up in the next few months could really get the share price moving as the 600 software plus the news that implimentation took less than 2 months (albeit just one so far) is very encouraging. Sounds as though the system is robust and easyish to bed-in. By the way I re-visited the Sempra details and BRY were indicating that they were pretty resolute/well prepared to counter claim £2.9 million against Sempra's delayed claim of £3.121 million. BRY had not accounted for any of the monies involved but they did declare that they had £577,500 of billings for work done still outstanding. Ok so I hear/understand that Sempra are a big and tough outfit but knowing some of the BRY players believe that they will hold their ground and not be intimidated. An interesting situation but as stated in the event that BRY sign-up more parties to their 600 system the more likely Sempra may just be inclined to cut a deal and even work again with BRY....funny old world, sometimes! Good luck...80p plus in 12 months!!!!

[muttleyrules] 24/7/2006 14:16

I'm not banking on Brady being a net benefciary from a Sempra settlement ... they are still quite a big player in the market and I think they could perhaps come to an agreement where Sempra remains a customer. This owuld be better than a small pay-off. Once settled that should provide for a further spike in the share price. Couple that with the prospect of further wins before the end of 2006 and there are reasons to get very excited about this share. With £4m of cash in the business, a market cap of just £7m and a product that clearly works why wouldn't a bigger software company have a pop at them?

[cyberian] 24/7/2006 13:48

Unfortunately this share is off most peoples radar at present...that could change soon as the previous contract win suggested other BIG names were in discussions. With the cash and the comment that the latter is expected to grow is a further major positive. Also with more and more sign-ups of the 600 software it increases the chances of a mutually beneficial settlement with Sempra. That would really boost the cash position.....encouraging, with hopefully more to follow. Who knows, if the pace of sales is seen to be growing a bidder may appear soon rather than later!! SLAP are you still around or did you get bored? Would you agree that the chance of a settlement with Sempra is more likely now, and that BRY will recover the money it is owed?

[muttleyrules] 24/7/2006 12:07

Another contract win for v600, £3.9m of cash with no debt at 30th June and cash set to increase despite new hires ... looking good ... nice to see another win before a likely quiet August.

[muttleyrules] 24/7/2006 12:05

New Contract
Brady Plc ("the Company"), the leading supplier of software solutions for
global commodity trading, announces that it has signed a contract to supply its
flagship product, Trinity version 600, to one of the world's largest recyclers
of metal products and vertically integrated manufacturers of rolled metal
products. The initial implementation is expected to commence in the third
quarter 2006.
The award of the contract with this New York Stock Exchange listed company
follows an extended sales and evaluation process for the Trinity product, which
provides fully integrated support for trading, risk management, back office and
physical logistics.
The Company is in continuing discussions with a wide variety of other
organizations in the commodities marketplace that seek to improve their risk
management capabilities, streamline operations and meet regulatory
requirements. Trinity enables these companies to manage the purchase and sale
of physical commodities, together with complete coverage of financial market
instruments and corporate treasury functions. These discussions may result in
further sales of Trinity version 600 during the current fiscal year.
The Company established a new implementation milestone by achieving initial
live operation of one of the Trinity v600 sales announced in June within two
months, although normally complex systems of this type are phased in over a
period of many months. All four major license sales announced in 2006 to date
are expected to have phased implementations in which initial product acceptance
does not trigger complete revenue recognition.
License revenues from further contract signatures in 2006 are likely to be
recognized predominantly in 2007. The Company's cash balance at 30th June was
approximately £3.9m with no debt. The Company intends to recruit additional
staff to ensure it has the capacity to meet potentially increased demand for
its products but believes cash holdings will continue to increase through the
second half of 2006.
Ends

[muttleyrules] 30/6/2006 14:59

Yes its reasonably high risk ... it's also very high reward too. If you want consistent profits go and buy United Utilites, yawn, yawn. Brady will be will be profitable this year in my view (as evidenced by contract wins - revs recognised in H2) and should meet market forecasts ... that implies revenues of £4m and EPS of 2.6p implying a PE of 10x 2006. The enterprise value is close to £3m (assuming c£4m of cash), that implies EV / Sales of less than 1x ... that is the wrong price in my view for a software co that should be making high margins. 2007 should be an even better year. If you believe the 4.2p of eps for 07 then they're on 6x PE (less if you adjust for the cash). What you have to remember is that the revenues are not all about contract wins; there are recurring revenues and wins typically lead to more work. The sales momentum is there and I think 2007 will be a great year for Brady. I reckon the Sempra issue will disappear but not immediately - Sempra is known to be a difficult customer and it has clearly not prevented Brady from winning new contracts. Great opp to buy some more.

[slapdash] 30/6/2006 13:27

nothing is cheap until it makes profits on a consistent basis.

Loss in H1 and will it be profitable full year???

How many contracts does it need to win?? I think the company is trumpeting its progress a bit which isn't that great yet. Needs lots more contracts as turnover target is say £5m and each contract I think is only worth £500k

If the legal thing goes against them it could be all over so this is a high risk stock in my view.

Slap

[muttleyrules] 29/6/2006 10:01

Only spivs selling out at current levels ... this is a cheap stock ... forecasts should be met for 06 but frankly I don't care ... 07 numbers will be even better and the company is increasing its level of recurring revenues ... these will have a much higher PE ... the contracts wins this year suggest to me that v600 is 'a best in class' product and as the industry standard Brady is woefully undervalued by the market. It is undervalued because management got overexcited about sign ups in 2005 and disappointed market expectations - it now seems they are ultra cautious which is good. I'll be buying more if it drifts further ... remember there's cash of c£4m and I think the cash pile is gently increasing as new contracts come through the door ... summer might be quiet for contract wins but ultimately i can see it back at 50p within 12 months. If value remains unrecognised by the market then I'm sure larger predators will not miss the opportunity to buy it. That'll be fine buy me at 80p.

[cyberian] 29/6/2006 09:21

Again agree slap on the options take-up...but he holds over 2 million now (incl. wife and children) so guess he is pretty committed to seeing BRY succeed. It would be extremely negative and even virtually impossible for him to sell any shares in present circumstances. Key for him and the CEO would be to see the 600 software really take-off in their sector and exit through a take-over at some future date. So as you say they have to secure a whole string of new contracts over coming months and this big one they appear to be at an advanced stage with could be highly critical. Again this may lead or influence Sempra to work things out with Brady as they were an important customer and carry quite a lot of clout. Resolution of the Sempra matter IMHO would be a real bonus and hopefully some settlement/accommodation would be well worth Brady efforts. Personally I would give the latter maximum priority but that is why I am suggesting that other high profile take-ups of the 600 software could influence Sempra. Who knows....??? Shares are probably worth a punt at these levels.

[slapdash] 28/6/2006 18:37

If you have options which are in the money you exercise them. Doesn't really prove anything.

My worry is it is great Brady is getting a few contracts but I think each contract is worth about £500k. To get revenues of say £5m they need ten of these and they haven't yet been winning them at a fast enough rate in my opinion.

Slapdash

[cyberian] 28/6/2006 12:06

Agree to quite an extent Slap...however, IF as it appears that they have this existing client and they have indicated that the possible upgrade etc. could be substantial then that may well influence many others to follow. Then it could be quite a cash generative vehicle as believe that BRY old software had secured about 40% of the market in their target sector. Maybe wishwell thinking on my part but they do seem quite involved with this big client and with recent 600 software sales the latter seems to be operating OK. Heck, they had long enough to sort any problems out and refine same, plus the company has broadened its delivery product base is positive. The bonus would be the resolution of the legal dispute...maybe it is purely a personality issue here? ..... these can get resolved remarkably quickly if one or the other backs down and "sues for peace"!!!! The shares are still worth keeping on ones radar as the Chairman has recently paid 25p for 100,000 of options (£25,000)

[slapdash] 28/6/2006 11:03

falling as predicted.

Loss in H1 then it still needs further contracts to meet the numbers.

Legal thing still hanging over company.

Company could do well so don't misinterpret my comments but a few contracts doesn't a company make and probably won't enable them to meet forecasts yet.

Even if they have a bunch of contracts which give good one-off results what happens the year after that?? And then the following year???

Slap

[deepal] 19/6/2006 12:26

even if some big company does not think , there are plenty of prospect to win new contracts and it is a matter of time to come back to profit and solve the dispute.once it is clear the sky is the limit obviously for upside

[muttleyrules] 15/6/2006 14:27

we knew that anyway ... v600 is becoming the product of choice ... how long before SAP or some other big software company with a powerful sales capability thinks 'nice product'?

[bluesky4] 15/6/2006 13:52

not bad but still a loss in H1...

[muttleyrules] 15/6/2006 13:19

Yet another contract win ... momentum continues ... pipeline shaping up well ...

[muttleyrules] 13/6/2006 16:53

They have flagged the 2H weighting already ... old news ... 'down she goes as expected' ... name me a stock that's up today ... have you noticed that the FTSE100 is down is off 130 pts and small caps are off even more ... you should buyback if you get the chance.

[slapdash] 13/6/2006 16:23

down she goes as expected... I expect sub 30p...

one thing I think no one has picked up on is that in all the contract wins the company always says revenue will be in second half... I think they might be warning about a dire H1....

Slap

[muttleyrules] 13/6/2006 11:41

Bottom line is that commodity markets are a bit like the wild west versus equity markets ... decent trading platforms are long overdue to monitor risk ... increased market volatility only reinforces the need for upgrades ... look where commodities are versus long term history ... a correction was long overdue ... things that go up in a straight line always come back at some point ... Brady's clients have still made bucket loads in the last 24months ...

[cyberian] 13/6/2006 09:57

BLUESKY4....with respect not too sure whether you understand Bray's business profile. Volatility is likely to increase and there is unlikely to be a global slump...it just wont be allowed to happen.

[bluesky4] 13/6/2006 09:50

maybe but with commodities off... it will be harder to attract money to commodity funds and pension funds won't invest in these... so demand for Brady's products surely decreases... orders will be postponed or cancelled??