Brady Share Discussion Threads

[slapdash] 06/12/2005 10:15

So Fidelity bought in at 80p and sold out probably at more than half that.

Their selling out might be considered worrying I suppose. Alternatively they may just have stop-losses. Could be a buy signal of course since when they bought it went down 50%... so when they sell could it do the same??

Clearly with this share there are two alternatives:

1) Favourable view: sales only delayed, company maintains strong position, will bounce back next year and should beat forecasts, company is correct in saying that the customer action against them in a 'significant contract' is without merit', the shares currently are really 'cheap' and not on a long path downwards.

2) Unfavourable view: Customer action against company might reflect systematic factors and the customer could be right! Other clients may not purchase until action is sorted out. Losses will increase going forward and cash will fall. For this to be the case the Trinity 600 would have to not be accepted by clients. There may also be other factors such as increased competition etc..

Which is these scenarios is most correct is difficult if not impossible for an outsider to judge. Only time will tell if Fidelity was right for selling out shortly after getting in.

Slap

[yachtmonster] 25/11/2005 22:02

Slap,

My bet is that with a name like David, we're talking about a bloke.

[slapdash] 23/11/2005 21:38

£9,000 is probably a quarter of his non-exec fees for a year.... so a worthwhile investment to curry favour with the board and keep his/her position..

Sorry to be cynical but remember Chairman Norris was buying up stacks of Jarvis on the way down... directors don't always get it right.... secondly Directors very often do token gestures....

Slap

[tell it as it is] 23/11/2005 21:35

And he increased his shareholding from zero! Obviously a real entrepreneur to risk £9,000 at a third of the price that the institutions came in !

[slapdash] 23/11/2005 11:13

miniscule amount though...

[yachtmonster] 23/11/2005 11:04

Interesting to see a director buying.

[cortez] 22/11/2005 20:56

slap

A very concise negative view!...and hard to argue with. Certainly no sales look likely this calender year. I'll wait and see what emerges from the ruin.

[slapdash] 20/11/2005 21:16

Sure but still loss-making and facing customer action over a 'significant contract'... and no actual significant sales of Trinity in the whole of 2005...

Cash per share could be lower soon due to cash burn and legal costs... at the interims I think they burnt something like £300K....

And recently lost financial director... why? and currently have no FD....

Most worrying in my view is the potential legal threat from a significant contract... This happened to a company I followed once called Comino.... none of the other customers purchased as they waited to see how the dispute would be settled...

On the news front we can only look forward to an extremely poor pre-close update in Dec 31st, the development of a legal action, no customer sales before year-end and then finally full-year financials revealing a larger loss in March 06....

This company could be a case of proving that profits warnings usually come in threes.........................

But do let me know why I'm wrong if I am....

Slap

[cortez] 20/11/2005 20:36

Innarestin'.....

Interims

Although it is of course disappointing to report a loss it is worth noting that the majority of our costs are now covered by recurring revenue streams and we would hope that this period's lack of new licence sales proves to be the exception.

...15p per share cash...

[cortez] 19/11/2005 02:00

So another new AIM company bites the dust. But worth monitering IMO...

[yachtmonster] 19/11/2005 00:13

slap,

useful edit, ta, will continue to monitor

[slapdash] 18/11/2005 15:00

Yacht... they acquired tradesoft I think... not that long ago...

did you see in the interims that someone is 'in dispute' (does that mean suing them) with them???? Don't know if it is serious??

5. Contingent liability

The company is in dispute with a client over a significant contract to supply a
modified Trinity system. The dispute is at an early stage and the potential
impact, if any, cannot be established. The directors, having taken legal
advice, believe at this stage the issues raised are without merit.


Hmm... the use of the words 'significant contract' and contingent liability is slightly worrying..... doesn't inspire much confidence if your customers sue you... (although probably not suing at this point just in dispute)

Slap

[yachtmonster] 17/11/2005 00:12

slap,

Not been following this one for a while and too lazy to check back on posts, and RNS's. Who did BRY acquire, and when?

TIA, all the best

YM

[slapdash] 16/11/2005 11:25

as predicted below 30p...............

[slapdash] 07/11/2005 08:32

down she goes where she stops nobody knows...

Still not sure how the company could do an acquisition and not say the price it was for........... seems a little blase to me...

Slap

[slapdash] 01/11/2005 23:31

yeah I wonder why he left...

One thing I didn't like in the interims was that they said there probably would be no sales this year...

So we will probably get a thumping loss when they report the finals and a huge fall in turnover.... cash will also be down.... could be as low as £3.5m..

And we still don't know why customers effectively decided not to purchase the systems for at least a year...

Delay to test it or simply don't like it???????????

Slap

[tell it as it is] 01/11/2005 22:43

Pity about the FD leaving. IDOX's gain and Brady's loss.

[slapdash] 16/10/2005 16:55

Cash at bank but making losses in the first half...

I don't think 30p is cheap enough to be honest.

lets us say that is about £7.5m market cap... with cash of possibly £4m (cash burn remember) that is £3.5m enterprise value against sales of only £1.5m in the first half.

I'm setting a range of 20-30p to look at it again. Remember the interims INCLUDED A WARNING that Trinity sales were due to come after 2006... so more delays and profits warnings possible.

Actually this may mean second half is particularly awful...

Could mean sales falling below £3m from about £4.5m just before float.... and a significant full-year loss

Hmm... not a company for the faint hearted... can Brady get this back??? Well I thought Stock was overvalued on floatation

Key question is whether the company is telling the truth on sales???? Have they faultered just because customers are awaiting for Brady's new product or as so often happens is the management spinning the truth..... new competition or problems with Brady's products perhaps??? Who can say but we shall see anyway.....

Slap

[yachtmonster] 04/10/2005 19:52

Luchan,

If it hits 30p, BUY. Just realised that Brady reminds me of anther share I watched but didn't buy a few years ago in the software sector. Moving the price graph to fit the Brady IP and current SP, gives the following:- Talk of a take over in a couple of months, followed by a take over and price freeze at the equivalent of 60-65p a couple of weeks later.

All IMO of course, and DYOR.

For the record, I now hold BRY and will be topping up as and when further funds become available.

YM

[luchan] 03/10/2005 18:54

Chaps-

maybe just a technical bounce , remember this co. has cash at the bank so I
feel the slide will halt shortly.IMHO.

luchan.

ps. not sure whether 40p was the bottom or we might see 30/35p on no news within the next quarter.

[cestnous] 02/10/2005 09:53

Tipped In "The Business," today.
Not a holder but watching,

Nous

[slapdash] 29/9/2005 14:20

yachtmonster - could be taken over.... don't know...

but prospects look increasingly grim... and trust will take years to restore...

I wouldn't touch it as there are better fish to fry

Slap

[yachtmonster] 28/9/2005 22:40

I take it all back guys, you could have made a fortune shorting this one. Wish I had. Hindsight is 20/20, as they say.

Tell,

If you're right about Dr. Brady, he must have wanted to release some capital, as a year ago was just after floatation, or maybe the truth lies elsewhere. As I say 20/20.

Slap,

Wouldn't 20p make them a serious take over threat, given the cash, etc?

Best of luck all,

YM

[slapdash] 28/9/2005 22:31

I still see it overvalued in my view

sales last year £4m... current market cap £10m...

I know they have cash but are also making losses at the interim stage

don't know if their products will sell well.... who knows why their clients have shied away so far.... not I.....

So I wouldn't buy now.....

30p to 20p looks more like a good value/bargain price given the risks...

So I would only buy if there is a second profits warning which is likely..

REMEMBER...this was floated on the promise sales and profits.... we have seen sales contract and losses.... we don't know if that can be turned around... upside isn't that high at present..

One to look at after finals in six months in my view...

Slap

[tell it as it is] 28/9/2005 22:26

Where we are now is, frankly, the kind of level that Brady should have floated at. It's probably around fair value now. It was valued on a dramatic growth story, which just wasn't that likely. That said it's a perfectly good company which clearly has more than enough cash not to be a concern, but I think it will be a long time before we see 100p again. Dr. Brady must now be glad he sold some of his stock at around 80p a year ago !