Bp Share Discussion Threads

[starguitar] 12/6/2021 11:10

Surely this should rise soon? The price of oil is rising so fast!

[skinny] 11/6/2021 16:14

Brent above $73............



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[bracke] 11/6/2021 14:40

optomistic

Pleased to read you are improving.

I am keeping well.

The never ending meteoric rise of AHT has hit recently hit a ceiling and horror of horrors has actually dropped!!!!! Even with the drop those who have held for six months or more have done well. It will be interesting to see how far it recovers.

[optomistic] 11/6/2021 13:20

Good afternoon Bracke, it does make the days longer anyone waiting for BP to race ahead. It has helped me by keeping me indoors and out of too much sun.
I am getting better but it has been a long recovery...or seems it ;-/
I hope you are keeping well and the wealthy AHT lot are not proving too much for you:-))

[smurfy2001] 11/6/2021 13:13

Still too bloody cheap makes no sense!

Annual div yield (ADY) 4.52%



Red "Barsteward" ticker will no doubt agree & tick down to acknowledge they read the post 😂

[marktime1231] 11/6/2021 12:54

Well spotted aleman and thank you, and doubleplus good for knowing how to find and paste such useful charts etc. I wonder where HH is headed next, looks like a powerful rising trend.

I believe BP's income from gas production is domninated by US prices, hence the importance of HH, but I think global gas prices are on the rise generally, because um er ... well I don't know actually. Rotating away from coal? What might the opening of Nord Stream 2 do?

A stronger price for gas and positive long-term demand outlook enhances the business case for cleaning up BP's act in the Permian Basin, investing to make use of the gas by-product. It is still flaring gas from the filthy oil assets purchased for a whopping $10.5B from BHP in Oct 2018. A very big minus against BP and Looney when aiming to woo the green lobby, pretending it "inherited" a problem yeah right your eyes were wide open.

Presumably volume demand for natural gas in the US is seasonal too, but the US has two seasons for power demand, the winter cold weather and the summer hot weather cycles. If you can find a chart which shows consumption volumes over the last year or three that would be a candidate for this week's prize for top post.

[bracke] 11/6/2021 11:47

Good day optomistic

I hope you are well although I appreciate the BP share price does not do a great deal to raise the spirits.

It's stuck at the 325 resistance zone which has proved difficult in the past. IF/WHEN it manages to break above resistance there is a gap at 344.45 to fill.....one day.

[skinny] 11/6/2021 11:44

BP can't even track the FTSE let alone Brent!

[optomistic] 11/6/2021 09:12

Brent now pushing to $73! I remember when BP used to go up when oil went up, everything seems to have changed now...I wonder if when oil drops if BP will follow it down.
With BP in profit when Brent is above $40 approx, the coffers must be overflowing...

[aleman] 11/6/2021 08:04

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[smurfy2001] 10/6/2021 22:29

Well l still hold.

[pander45] 10/6/2021 22:19

Still good value at these levels imho

[planit2] 10/6/2021 19:25

@mark

I completely agree, i was just quoting what they said and I too expect it to be positive.
Generally I try to play things down a bit as if I go by my calculations everything seems crazy regarding profits this year.

The refining margins are also $5 per barrel higher than Q1 which adds another $500m to profits.

The reason this is such a good investment is because the broker forecasts are impacted by their woke religion, they just can't believe we need oil in the future as everything will be electric in 2025.
I would be really happy except I believe people around the world are going to be negatively impacted by the green beliefs of the rich companies.

[marktime1231] 10/6/2021 17:25

I think that view is a little pessimistic planit. The Deepwater Horizon payment will erode the extent of surplus free cash flow, but I think it was only expected to be net negative based on a conservative forecast of oil/gas demand and prices.

We are averaging $5-10 up on oil price this quarter, gas prices firmer, and if production volumes are similar we might see another $1B + surplus. Hard to track the cash consequences of investment/divestment, but surely the cost of borrowing is nudging down all the while too given the rate of debt reduction.

If we hit $75 oil and $3.20 gas it will cue a wave of upbeat broker analysis.

[adrian j boris] 10/6/2021 15:21

masterinvestor


Can the Shell and BP share prices recover after underperforming the FTSE 100?
By Robert Stephens, CFA 10 June 2021
2 mins. to read

Robert Stephens, CFA, discusses the outlook for the UK’s two oil majors after a disappointing year.

The performances of BP (LON: BP) and Shell (LON: RDSB) have been hugely disappointing over the past year. While the FTSE 100 index has surged by around 10%, the share prices of the two oil and gas majors are down by 12% apiece.

A key reason for their underperformance of the index could be concerns about their reliance on fossil fuels. Covid-19 appears to have accelerated the trend towards cleaner forms of energy, as well as increasing the popularity of ESG investing.

Oil and gas prospects

However, the prospects for the oil and gas industry may be more positive than the share price performances of Shell and BP would suggest. Certainly, demand for oil and gas will decline over the coming decades, as major economies, including the UK, target net-zero emission targets. However, in the short run, the outlook for oil and gas could be encouraging for two reasons.

First, the global economy is widely forecast to deliver strong growth in 2021 and 2022. According to the IMF, it is expected to grow by 6% this year and 4.4% next year. Historically, oil prices have been positively impacted by buoyant economic performance. The asset may even become more popular among investors who are searching for an inflation hedge should economic growth cause a rapid rise in the price level.

Second, the adoption of cleaner forms of energy is likely to be an evolutionary process, rather than a revolution. There is no guarantee that current targets, which are ambitious in many cases, will ultimately be met. Indeed, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that demand for oil will be 4.4% higher in 2026 than it was prior to the pandemic. Alongside this, the shift within the energy sector from fossil fuel to low-carbon assets may mean that the supply of oil is somewhat limited. This could have a positive impact on its price.

Attractive valuations

Shell and BP have ambitious strategies to pivot towards low-carbon assets over the long run. In reality, the cost, returns and ultimate success of those plans is likely to remain a known unknown for a prolonged period.

They could provide investors with high and sustainable returns over coming decades. Or they may leave both companies crippled with high levels of debt and asset bases that offer lower returns than have been previously available via fossil fuel assets. In this latter scenario, the ability of the two companies to deliver dividends or share price growth could be severely limited.

However, the valuations of the two stocks suggest that investors are factoring in a period of financial difficulty and risk as they embark on their strategy shift. Shell has a price-to-book ratio of 0.9 and a dividend yield of 3.5%, while BP trades at just a 20% premium to net asset value and offers a dividend yield of 4.8%.

These figures suggest that the two stocks offer wide margins of safety that may not reflect their potential to deliver improved financial performance should the oil price rise in the likely global economic recovery. They may also price in a failure to pivot towards low-carbon assets that does not materialise. As such, they could offer good value for money on a risk/reward basis relative to other FTSE 100 stocks in the current bull market.

[klotzak] 10/6/2021 11:47

Same old day, gets into positive around lunchtime. It's being manipulated like mad at the moment. Are the H1 buy backs complete yet?

[johnwise] 09/6/2021 23:40

The Tory Party is the New Green Socialists:


"Global Warming" has been the biggest con which has been ongoing for a number of years. Create fear in the population then you can implement control over said population. Convince everyone to "Save the Planet" and tax them to high heaven and because it is a "green tax" no-one will complain or rather they will complain but can be duped into acceptance because it is good for the planet. How much money that has been taken by the government for all these green taxes has actually been spent on trying to reduce carbon emmissions? Wind turbines are highly subsidised by the government and companies are making a fortune out of them but their own carbon footprint negates the reason for installing them. Again it is just money and people are being duped into believing they are for the good of the environment. Rubish. The old addage "You can fool some of the people some of the time". Goebels got it right when he said "The bigger the lie then more people will believe it".


Shell chief vows to bolster emissions strategy after court ruling

Ben van Beurden pledges to ‘rise to challenge’ after court ordered oil firm to cut global carbon emissions by 45%



The evidence global warming isn't happening..

Video: The truth about global warming


VIDEO: A Dearth of Carbon Dr. Patrick Moore


VIDEO: Bill Gates Slams Unreliable Wind and Solar Energy


VIDEO: European Parliament Told 'There is No Climate Emergency!'


Global warming a total “hoax and scam” run by corrupt scientists, warns Greenpeace co-founder


Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data

[johnwise] 09/6/2021 23:39

The Tory Party is the New Green Socialists:


"Global Warming" has been the biggest con which has been ongoing for a number of years. Create fear in the population then you can implement control over said population. Convince everyone to "Save the Planet" and tax them to high heaven and because it is a "green tax" no-one will complain or rather they will complain but can be duped into acceptance because it is good for the planet. How much money that has been taken by the government for all these green taxes has actually been spent on trying to reduce carbon emmissions? Wind turbines are highly subsidised by the government and companies are making a fortune out of them but their own carbon footprint negates the reason for installing them. Again it is just money and people are being duped into believing they are for the good of the environment. Rubish. The old addage "You can fool some of the people some of the time". Goebels got it right when he said "The bigger the lie then more people will believe it".


Shell chief vows to bolster emissions strategy after court ruling

Ben van Beurden pledges to ‘rise to challenge’ after court ordered oil firm to cut global carbon emissions by 45%



The evidence global warming isn't happening..

Video: The truth about global warming


VIDEO: A Dearth of Carbon Dr. Patrick Moore


VIDEO: Bill Gates Slams Unreliable Wind and Solar Energy


VIDEO: European Parliament Told 'There is No Climate Emergency!'


Global warming a total “hoax and scam” run by corrupt scientists, warns Greenpeace co-founder


Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data

[planit2] 09/6/2021 17:25

I thought they would issues an RNS if the buyback was completed. Perhaps there is a small amount outstanding but they have given themselves to the end of June.

They are using the buybacks to give money back to investors so they can't have a limit to the buy price. Their commitment was to purchase "at least 60%" of free cash flow this year after the debt level is reached. They can hardly say "we didn't buy any shares because we thought they were too expensive"

FCF in the second qtr was expected to be negative due to the horizon payment so they probably are not far off 60% of FCF at the moment for the first 5 months (including the $500m).
The last 7 months of the year will need significant buybacks though, enough to move the share price and probably drag up RDSB with it to some extent.
Evidence of profit going forwards with the high oil price should also help the share price.

[north sea boy] 09/6/2021 16:41

Excellent post Marktime, I completely agree with you, and thanks you for your thoughts on this.

NSB

[skinny] 09/6/2021 15:54

Highest price since March 5th @326.45p

[marktime1231] 09/6/2021 15:32

By my fingers and toes between 27 Apr and 20 May the total buyback has been just over 115 million shares at prices 302p-310p. So they have spent about £350M which is about $500M at 1.42 cable.

The approval was up to $500M, and the mandate seems to have restricted buying to under 310p.

If the share price holds up above 320p and continues to rise with strong price and demand for oil the share buyback so far must be considered a success. Not because the buying back has necessarily pushed up the sp, but because the buying price has been at a significant discount to value.

How they might conduct a multi-billion buy back in the second half of the year is going to be interesting. If par value is seen to be 350-360p will they limit a buyback programme to that price threshold or just give the brokers feee rein?

In the overall scheme of things with a share price likely to continue to rise, sharply if results are super strong, it seems to me they should give the broker(s) a discretionary mandate and get on with it asap. If the share price does rise strongly back towards historic levels it will increase the pressure to improve the dividend.

Don't forget that even as demand recovers BP is facing in to an income headwind, because during transition the oil disposal programme outpaces any rise of income from renewables. Looney smartly highlighted the importance of gas prices in his Q1 report, we should perhaps be watching Henry Hub and comparing it to a target of $3 per mmBTU rather than just glorying in how far Brent / WTI stand above the $45 boe benchmark.

[gwatson56] 09/6/2021 15:27

One advantage is buying is cheaper. I would expect a re-rate once we are given Qtr2 guidance. If last year is a guide then sometime next week Tues - Thurs I reckon. Reading Qtr1 results again I do think there are many positives that allow for greater cash generation... for example BP state that any forecast for this year assumes POO at $50 Brent. Given the average for Qtr2 as noted by BP is circa $67 then that is $17 multiplied by 85 Million for the qtr again as per BP weekly trading conditions update.

BP reckoned that RMM would not show much uptick this qtr yet again BP weekly trading conditions update shows a good $5 increase ... at $440M per year just divide by 4 and multiply by 5.....

Outgoings are clear ... Gulf of Mexico is $1.2B pre $1.0B post.... redundancy cost for qtr 1 was some £500M... reckon on same for qtr 2.....

So.... my take is that if trading has had a reasonable qtr that we should be cash positive... my estimate for qtr2 is circa £500M...

And dDn't forget that over $700M is unspent on buyback from qtr1 ....

So the guidance I reckon will not give numbers other to confirm if BP is or is not cash positive qtr 2.. and lots and lots on renewables ....eyes down next week...

[janhar] 09/6/2021 14:41

The divergence of the BP share price relative to the poo is at an all time high - there has to be a correction some time soon. BP should be c. £4.50

[adg] 09/6/2021 13:42

At some point this will re-rate, perhaps north of £4
i suspect we will need to wait until the high oil price and associated high margins filter through into a stonking set of 2Q figures, if POO remains high I personally could see near on +50% on today’s share price by year end…. Assuming of course COVID situation continues to ease..