Bp Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 01/11/2020 22:28

Remember Remember the 5th of November for the diary

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 01/11/2020 22:22

Oh he's posting here as well? They really must be bored.

[smartie6] 01/11/2020 21:20

Deltalo, you’re so far out, when you’re destitute I’ll buy you a meal. Lol.

[watfordhornet] 01/11/2020 12:28

Also agree - follow my share trading exploits to become poor. GSK, BP, RDSB, AV. Glen, IMB - some of the worse performers out there.

[time for common sense] 01/11/2020 12:21

Smartie6 I agree on the last one with you. The rich are getting richer and the poor, poorer.

[smartie6] 01/11/2020 12:02

I do not believe the data is accurate in any sense, I believe it to be far worse.
I don’t trust the timing of information released either. I believe the rich are getting richer and the poor, poorer.

[time for common sense] 01/11/2020 11:29

More people they will report more £ support they will get. Does NHS website state how they are helping all that people?Government is scared of lawsuits for deaths, hence stupid, not making sense rules. Just wait for that Covid scare going past and lawsuits form businesses destroyed by government.Children are biggest symptomless spreaders and schools are open. Government was paying £6.5k for test and trace which is not working - another lawsuit i hope for wasting public money. The list is long. 1% just 1% died because of it - if you can trust how honestly they are reporting it - i do not.

[smartie6] 01/11/2020 11:04

Daily hospitalisation rates are available from the NHS website. I have been tracking them daily. Rate of deaths seem a lot higher than the first wave but probably a result of policy to only take in those that are unable to breath with blue lips and toes.
I believe 40% of hospitalisations died in first wave, second wave appears at 60% but news says not???????
Current daily rate 1,400 hospitalisations per day and increasing, likelihood on previous weeks data that in 2 to 3 weeks we’ll be seeing 800 deaths per day at which time further pressure and questions on the government.

[time for common sense] 01/11/2020 10:49

Where did you watch that daily hospitalisations? In mainstream TV or from hospital you are working at?There is no medicines or vaccination yet for Covid, so how they cure people in hospitals?We were in lockdown for 5 weeks and as it looks, did not helped. Muzzles and social distancing is enforced, but is not working apparently because people obeying it. We have to wear muzzles when shopping and he was giving national brief in same room with at least 4 people and did not wear one. Lead by example. In summary IMHO someone is making money on Covid test which are not accurate or too sensitive in showing positive results. That was already questioned by scientists and ignoredby government.

[smartie6] 01/11/2020 09:38

Why would you want to go abroad Sbb1x in the first place?

[the stinger] 01/11/2020 09:09

Short all stocks

[smartie6] 01/11/2020 09:03

Purple, we’ll never agree but this time I will say I told you so.

[purple11] 01/11/2020 08:57

lockdown already prices in.itll be over in a month.no big deal

[smartie6] 01/11/2020 08:53

Sbb1x, ftse 5500 is going to be conservative imo. The impact now, and don’t get me wrong this lockdown is needed, will be severe. As you’ve rightly pointed out in 4weeks there’s a very good chance of a further extension.
I’ve watched daily hospitalisations numbers daily for over 6weeks now and 2weeks ago these were frightening, now we’re at 1400 plus daily. Death rates in 3weeks will be above 800 people a day. I still believe this lockdown has not gone far enough and we’ll get further measures added as realisation sets in.

[oakville] 01/11/2020 08:48

Anybody tell me the best company to short a stock please? Certainly looks room and gloom in your country. Thanks.

[sbb1x] 01/11/2020 08:46

?Michael Gove makes clear lockdown could go beyond Dec 2"We are going to review it on Dec 2 but we are driven by the data. On the basis of what we have been told it should drive the R rate below 1. It's our hope that we have significantly reduced the reinfection (R) rate"

[oakville] 01/11/2020 07:41

SBB,1x who do you use to short? Thinking of it after yesterday's announcement.

[sbb1x] 01/11/2020 07:09

Markets are all ready down and will open lowerWeekend markets update:#DAX 11498 -1.19%#DOW 26372 -0.90%#FTSE 5507 -1.64%#HANGSENG 24254 -0.24%#GBPUSD 12897 -0.41%#EURUSD 11643 -0.04%#USDJPY 10465 -0.03%#IGWeekendMarkets

[sbb1x] 31/10/2020 15:30

LIBYA OIL PRODUCTION RISES TO 800,000 BARRELS PER DAY - LIBYAN OIL SOURCE

[gibbs1] 31/10/2020 14:59

BP vs. Total: Which Oil Company Is Better Positioned for a Green Energy Transition?
Two oil giants are making big bets about the future. Which approach is the better option for long-term investors?
Reuben Gregg Brewer
Reuben Gregg Brewer
(TMFReubenGBrewer)
Oct 31, 2020 at 10:35AM
Author Bio

European oil giants BP (NYSE:BP) and Total (NYSE:TOT) have both taken stands on clean energy, with each pledging its support for alternatives to oil. However, there's a notable difference in the business trajectories these integrated energy giants are taking. Here's a look at what the companies are doing, and what it could mean for investors.
The quick change artist

In August, BP cut its dividend in half. For dividend investors that was terrible news, but it was, to some degree, a sign of the times. The economic closures used to slow the spread of COVID-19 earlier in 2020 led to a massive drop in demand for oil and natural gas. With excess supply piling up in storage, energy prices plunged, and BP's top and bottom lines went along for the ride. However, there was more to this cut than meets the eye.
Two hands holding blocks spelling out the words RISK and REWARD.

Image source: Getty Images.

Around the same time, BP announced it had a new business strategy. Basically, the global energy giant is shifting toward clean energy. That keeps it in line with current feelings toward carbon fuels as the world grapples with fears around climate change. However, it's a big change for an oil company to go green. For starters, BP intends to cut its oil and gas production by 40% by 2030, less than 10 years from now. Meanwhile, it wants to make a 10-fold increase in the number of electric vehicle charging points it owns, and a 20-fold increase in the amount of clean energy it produces. By 2030 40% of the company's capital spending is likely to be dedicated to low-carbon and clean-energy businesses.

This is a "jump in with both feet" approach. If something goes wrong along the way, there's not much fallback room. The problem with this is that BP is one of the most heavily leveraged oil majors, with its roughly 1.1-times debt to equity ratio above those of all of its major peers. So it doesn't have much wiggle room. And it's counting on the oil business, which it will be shrinking, to fund its clean energy push. If oil's price recovery is slower than expected or there's lingering industry weakness, it could be hard for BP to generate the cash it needs to cover its debt load and its new business plan.
Easy does it

Total is looking to make big changes as well, but it's taking a drastically different approach as it looks to shift toward cleaner energy alternatives. It is projecting that its oil production will decline from 55% of sales in 2019 to 35% in 2030. However, natural gas production will increase from 40% to 50%. Natural gas is cleaner than oil and is viewed as a key transition fuel as the world reduces its carbon footprint. That said, Total's overall sales are projected to be higher, so oil and gas sales will actually be up slightly over that time frame -- not lower, as BP is planning. The remaining 15% of sales in 2030 will come from clean energy and electricity, up from 5% in 2019.

That 5% figure is noteworthy, since Total has been more consistent in its investment in clean energy and electricity. For example, it has owned a stake in SunPower since 2011. BP, meanwhile, tried to rebrand as "Beyond Petroleum" at one point, signifying a shift toward clean energy. But it ended up dropping the idea and selling much of what it acquired in what proved to be an ill-conceived business plan.

Total's capital spending plan is more nuanced as well. Between 2015 and 2019 Total spent about 10% of its capital budget on clean energy. It will up that to 15% between 2021 and 2025, and then 20% between 2025 and 2030. The goal is still to use the legacy oil business to fund a transition to clean energy, but to do it gradually and without materially shrinking what has historically been a very profitable segment. The big change in the oil business is that Total intends to refocus around its lowest-cost oil and gas operations so it can better compete in a world with low energy prices.

BP Debt to Equity Ratio Chart

BP Debt to Equity Ratio data by YCharts

While Total also has a relatively heavy debt load, with debt to equity sitting at 0.77 times, the approach it is taking provides more wiggle room should things not pan out as expected. And it can always speed up its transition should it want or need to. It's a more balanced approach that conservative, long-term investors will likely find appealing.
Which company is right?

Nobody on Wall Street has a crystal ball, so it's impossible to know if BP's plan to effectively go all in or Total's slower shift will work out better. However, there is a fairly obvious risk/reward trade-off in each approach. If everything works as planned, BP will end up a big winner, and Total will look like it's moving relatively slowly. But it's worth noting that Total will still be moving in the right direction. U.S. peers ExxonMobil and Chevron are sticking with oil for now, which some might see as short-sighted.

If the transition doesn't play out as BP is expecting, it could end up flat-footed and behind the pack because it is materially shrinking its oil and gas business. BP isn't exactly taking an all-or-nothing stance, but weak returns in the clean energy space could be a huge drag on the company's overall results. Total, on the other hand, will likely be able to take some setbacks in stride, since it is basically looking to maintain and upgrade its oil and gas business while still building a clean energy operation. For conservative investors, Total's approach looks more appealing.

And it's worth noting that Total believes it can continue to support its hefty 10% dividend yield and fund its business transition as long as oil prices stay around $40 a barrel (though they've recently sunk below that level, so there is still dividend risk here). Still, the line in the sand aside, Total should be appealing to dividend investors looking to invest in the out-of-favor energy sector, with a bit of a clean energy hedge thrown in as a bonus.

[sbb1x] 31/10/2020 14:22

With no cuts left to make, Big Oil sits & waits for a recovery: Global producers have slashed costs all they can: curtailing unprofitable production, reducing spending & investment, firing employees. Cut dividends but weighed down by high debt levels. https://t.co/kCrmZLzxz4 https://t.co/WDGSHy3uS6

[sbb1x] 31/10/2020 14:21

They will been lean mean fighting machines in 1 year from now. Short term pain for long term gain.Next week might be awful.1. UK lockdowns.2. Us elections.3. No deal brexit 4. Sell of towards dividend date because certain people don't like dividends believe it not.5. ExDividend date drop 4p.6. Oil staying low or dropping because next opec meeting is 30th November, opec plus meeting 1st December!1 Year from now should be double the 52 week low what ever that will be in next few weeks.SHORT TERM PAIN FOR LONGTERM GAIN

[plastow] 31/10/2020 12:20

Brilliant way to slim line the businesses when these big companies come through this there be making good profits overheads will be minimal interesting times ahead