Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[newtothisgame3] 01/4/2019 12:37

#BLVN #Bowleven updates on Cameroon development

[welshki] 29/3/2019 19:32

Rob......you are seriously dense.......seriously Anyway you avoiding every question I ask you speaks volumes.......you can't back up a single one of your claims, statements or forecasts

[warbaby43] 29/3/2019 15:25

Perhaps desha, perhaps - but on the other hand COC now have over half their original investment back via the Special Dividend and with c$18m in their hands from BLVN, they can reinvest that in other opportunities and take a more relaxed view on Etinde timescale.

On reflection, I believe too that in positing 50/50 for near term FID, I was being a little too pessimistic - more like 60/40 or even 65/35 I guess.

The key is patently establishing a gas solution and bearing in mind that owt more than covering their gas costs is a plus in the sort of liquids project they are envisaging, it is not entirely impossible that they will achieve that.

[roberto mancini] 29/3/2019 15:09

COC have always been up for quick sale, no takers, chancers, matter of time 4p

[roberto mancini] 29/3/2019 14:55

have you not heard the phrase "lose your shirt",.. means you've backed a losing hand.

Clearly you have not woken up to reality,..

[roberto mancini] 29/3/2019 14:35

I'd stick my money on you losing your hairy shirt

[welshki] 29/3/2019 14:31

bob - you really are a simpleton, i'd day stick your money in premium bonds or a childrens ISA.......i dont think someone with your IQ should be dabbling in the stock market

[roberto mancini] 29/3/2019 13:58

SNH want FLNG, more drills?, 12 areas of interest mentioned, BLVN don't have the cash after the oh so special div. go figure!

More shares to be issued in 12 months, dilution?

Blind leading the blind, Specsavers?, stick to sheep shearing or whatever you get up!

[welshki] 29/3/2019 13:55

i can see yet again bob is talking absolute tripe, uneducated and unsubstantiated nonsense.......apparently the ONLY way you should value a company is purely by the cash on the balance sheet......well according to bob anyway!

"I'm expecting shareholders will get a good shafting"

anyone who looks at the above and decides to pay it attention, just read this posters past "contributions" and you'll soon see that a dumper truck of salt should be applied to all of his comments!

[warbaby43] 29/3/2019 13:46

"To put it simplistically, there is a risk that the JV does not get to FID, in which case the Etinde assets are pretty worthless."

Except, doesn't the phrase "in the short term" need to be chucked in there somewhere?

My guess is that near term FID (2019/20) is about 50/50 and that it is perfectly possible that the JVP and SNH will, instead, opt for further drilling and the preferred (by both sides)development route of FLNG which would probably entail a delay of 3/4 years - an age perhaps for us lot but a blink of the eye for the O&G industry.

In this regard worth recalling Mike Clancy's words at c 10.09 of the November Conference Call - "It would do well to remember that we're in the fairly early stages of appraisal here" and this from the IE-4 Result RNS in the portion updating on the IM-6 well analysis - "the JV partners have agreed to undertake further geological and technical analysis including remapping the identified leads and prospective traps within the Etinde licence area. This work will be ongoing through 2019 alongside the additional data obtained from the IE-4 well."

As p11 of the AGM Presentation also makes clear there is a significant amount of interpretation and stitching together of the accumulated Etinde data being done this year and if the result of this is the JVP believing that there are more significant potential traps to be drilled then that conclusion is going to have a strong bearing on the options pursued.

However, having said that, New Age are still a relative minnow in industry terms and cash flow is of huge import for them so my guess would be that a near term, lower cost liquids project FID would still be their preference to produce the cash to finance the longer term (probably post 2025) additional Etinde appraisal drilling along with the FLNG project.

[roberto mancini] 29/3/2019 13:07

I'm expecting shareholders will get a good shafting.

Beware Russians/China boy's AND last but not least the Cameroon Gov/SNH.

[desha] 29/3/2019 11:28

My chips are already on the table!

[cyan] 29/3/2019 10:51

hi desha

A very reasoned commentary. It appears the 'market' suspects the risk you highlight is very high.

Place your bets.

[desha] 29/3/2019 10:45

To put it simplistically, there is a risk that the JV does not get to FID, in which case the Etinde assets are pretty worthless. The question is what percentage to attach to that risk. The longer the whole appraisal and evaluation process goes on, the higher the risk. BLVN is a binary bet on FID and the chances of approval appear to be receding.

I think the Govt and SNH are proving to be tricky parties to deal with, who are not fully aligned with our other partners, witness:

We expect to be able to narrow our development preferences in the immediate future, although we doubt any option will be removed from further consideration at this stage pending extensive commercial discussions with third parties, of whom SNH and the Government of Cameroon are key.

BTW no de-ramping intended, I am long term holder.

[gark] 29/3/2019 10:27

I think the end game is 30-50p depending on FID solution. If there is no FLNG and the liquids are prioritised then the valuation could be as high as 50p as more parties would be interested. The discount has been due to the difficulty of monetising the asset so if this can be shown to be an easier process than first thought there will be more interest and a higher price paid. They must be pretty confident of this given the dividend and the language in today's announcement.

[nufckk] 29/3/2019 10:08

Cyan has put together a sensible,understated valuation on Etinde. The board themselves state on page 12 of the 2018 accounts that their book value for Etinde is $200m and that they are confident that they can achieve that valuation. Perhaps the reality lies somewhere in between, though Eli doesn’t seem as prone to exaggeration and hyperbole as other AIM CEO’s in fact quite the opposite

[cyan] 29/3/2019 09:23

Robert posts numbers which suggest zero value for ETINDE

The farmout of ETINDE was a $250 m package for 50% of a known asset. It had possible upside, but that was an unknown at the time of the deal. We have since added value, but not as much as we liked.

I think its inconceivable that NA or Lukoil will walk; they did DD and already recognised ETINDE's commercial value at circa 1TCF.



Lets again reflect on what was paid on the then smaller asset numbers; a $250m package for 50%.

Lets assume the lower percentage share for BLVN; 20%.

If $250m WAS the value of 50% of ETINDE (some at the time thought that FAR too cheap) it follows 100% could be valued at $500m.

With 20%; a fifth we can theorise that BLVN's share is valued at %100 USD or £77 Million Sterling.

£77 million Sterling , and based on shares in issue of 335,272,933 shares in issue equates to c. 23 p per share.

Anticipated FID payment of $25 adds c. 5.7p

running total 28.7p

add the only value figure Robert choses to post; 4p

Final total value 32.7p

[roberto mancini] 29/3/2019 08:39

Balance sheet $82m cash/investments = £63m minus £50m = £13m = 4p.
Time frames sre a slipping again 2020!

Don't worry nico if a bid were to transpire very soon according to you it will be minimum of 41p(stock high in previous 12 months),.. you remain unconcerned eh, boy!

DOH!!! Oh hang on, any bid only has to be no lower than the highest price paid by the bidder <12 months!

[dunderheed] 29/3/2019 08:27

Do you think "we" should bring back "Kev"?