Bond International Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 06/9/2010 09:15

Watch the cashflow though. Net Debt up from 2.9mm to 4.6mm.

[daz] 06/9/2010 08:18

Trading update today, poor first half but more confident about the medium term. Could be a good point for a predator to strike though.

[napoleon 14th] 12/8/2010 01:43

Talk about being volatile on small volume:

Date O H L C CHANGE % VOLUME

08/11/2010 57.500 60.000 55.500 57.500 +2.000 +3.60% 0
08/10/2010 57.500 60.000 55.500 55.500 -1.500 -2.63% 9,000
08/09/2010 52.500 57.000 52.500 57.000 +4.600 +8.78% 13,000
08/06/2010 52.000 52.400 52.000 52.400 +0.900 +1.75% 1,145
08/05/2010 50.500 52.000 50.500 51.500 +3.000 +6.19% 10,461

Apparently moved it up 3.6% on no volume....

Source: barchart.com

Strangely, Selftrade's version is different:(!)

05/08 06/08 09/08 10/08 11/08
Open 50.50 52.00 52.50 57.50 57.50
High - - - - 0.00
Low - - - - 0.00
Close 52.00 52.50 57.50 57.50 57.50
Volume - - - - 0
Change +2.97% +0.96% +9.52% +0.00% +0.00%

but today, Wednesday, volume confirmed as nil without a price change...
Selftrade give the spread as 5p, or c. 10%

Too much information not good for one!

So here's Plus Markets........


Data delayed by at least 15 mins
Company Type Bid Ask Mid Chg Volume Last Trade 52Wk Low 52Wk Hi
BOND INTERNA... 55.00 62.00 0.00 35000 11/8/2010 49.00 92.50

Shows the outrageous spread as 7p, or 12%!!!

One thing's for sure; if you hold, don't sell - just add!

[amt] 09/8/2010 09:24

Looks like a turnaround here or are the bid rumours reappearing ?

[wjccghcc] 06/8/2010 13:31

BDI's accounts are a bit murky (tho perfectly legal). EPS isn't particularly helpful as they have a large acquisition amortisation figure which they exclude from EPS figures. Also they're quite liberal with their accounting for R&D expenditure. Last year they spent 3.7mm on R&D but only expensed 2mm of it whereas more conservative companies like MCGN or IGP expense the whole amount.

Basically, EPS can end up pretty much wherever the accountants let it. I prefer using cashflow for BDI which last year was about breakeven.

[daz] 06/8/2010 13:20

Does anyone give credence to the EPS forecasts of 9.3 for 2010 and 10.7 for 2011? They look suspiciously high, the 2010 figure would be more than double 2009 and the remarks in the outlook statement with the finals were very cautious.

[amt] 06/8/2010 11:27

Yes they could pay £1.00 and still only be paying 1* sales. They are very acquisitive I notice from their recent results.

[boadicea] 28/7/2010 15:04

If Constellation have been hoping to get this cheap, they might be lucky (at our expense).
BDI has hardly been traded for the past couple of months so a few sells have knocked it well down.
All Constellation have to do is sit on their hands to establish a nice low base price (under 50p) for an opportunistic bid that will look generous at a 50% 'premium'.

[boadicea] 21/5/2010 11:39

Yes, riv - I noticed the RNS but also saw that the increase was marginal - from 12.95 to 13.03% in the past month.
Constellation give the impression that they have no intention of bidding the price up from its present level. We don't know the maximum they have paid to date - or at least recently. I suspect it's not much more than the current price.

[rivaldo] 21/5/2010 07:27

Boadicea, FYI from today's FT:



"Software rival lifts Bond stake
By Neil Hume and Bryce Elder

Published: May 21 2010 03:00 | Last updated: May 21 2010 03:00

Bond International Software was in focus as stake- building by a Canadian rival stoked takeover rumours.

Toronto-based Constellation Software declared this week a raised holding of 13 per cent in Bond, which specialises in software for the staffing industry.

Traders noted that Constellation had previously amassed a large holding in another UK-listed software company, Gladstone, which it eventually acquired. History could repeat itself, they added - shares in Bond held firm at 75p."

[boadicea] 20/4/2010 08:12

A further small (RNSNON) and needed boost to those "fundamentals".
Winning new business is also likely to be an encouragement to Constellation's increased interest.

[boadicea] 16/4/2010 17:03

kruger - That cannot be much over 90p now.
If they wait for 6 months or so it could drop to ~80p or less.
However, no need to look on the bleak side. More likely it should be over 100p.

[kruger2004] 16/4/2010 16:09

boadicea

Under takeover rules, i believe that if constellation make a bid they are obliged to pay at least as much as the highest price they have paid in the previous 12 months.

[boadicea] 16/4/2010 15:51

rivaldo - Absolutely right about Constellation.
Now almost up to 13% from around 10%, presumably in the past few days.
The question of how long before a bid is a tricky one. Constellation may be encouraged befroe long by a background drop in the market offering a good price or minimal need for an enticing premium over the current share price

However, I also have a significant holding in ALM waiting for just such an event with the potential predator (Joe Lewis/Mayfair) sitting on 29.9% and with further shares in presumed friendly hands, not to mention the suspicion of gentle downward massaging of the share price
In that particular case there is a juicy dividend, a modest p/e ratio and the realistic prospect of a capital return to make the wait more bearable.

[rivaldo] 14/4/2010 14:47

Interesting one this. Sold ages ago, but I reckon Constellation must be buying in the background and supporting the price. You can understand why given the recovery potential. I'm assuming Constellation will bid at some point, but it's a question of how long they'll take to do it....and whether I'm prepared to gamble on it!

[kruger2004] 14/4/2010 14:22

always been a big fan of bond but these are very disappointing results and I would agree with Stegrego, BDI should be trading at 40p-50p max until we see some sign of recovery.

They are still spending £4m a year on R&D, and while they strip out the amortisation costs to arrive at adjusted profits, this a little cheeky as if they didn't capitalise the R&D they wouldn't have the amortisation, so the real cash profit of the business is break even.

Cash has gone very badly wrong and the overdraft of around £4 million is not that far away from their full facility of £6m.

On the plus side, the recurring revenue continues to grow (slowly) and does provide good visibility

[stegrego] 14/4/2010 12:42

In this market, surely this is trading about 30-50% higher than it ought to be?

Way above the sector average of around 9x and some of those companies have actually grown profits.....

[bostonborn] 14/4/2010 10:13

Boadicea
I agree with your comments, the big question is how long will the recovery take? I didn't like the comment near the end of the report that implies there aren't going to be many new orders in the first half of 2010, which implies a very slow recovery indeed is expected by the company.

[boadicea] 14/4/2010 07:52

Certainly unexciting, but not alarming either.
Adjusted p/e of 18.6 (at share price 70.5p) does not give much support and margin restoration must be a priority.
However, maintained revenue and a further small increase in the recurrent contribution are reasonably encouraging.
In a cyclical industry survival is important when weaker brethren are falling by the wayside.

The question we will all want answered is - have we reached the low point of the cycle?

[napoleon 14th] 14/4/2010 01:12

Results today not exciting many people...

[boadicea] 23/2/2010 17:01

Thanks for your comment, Shanklin. An interesting observation implying Constellation may be on a general acquisition trail.
I am not familiar with GLD but at a quick glance they appear to have only 30% of the turnover of BDI and capitalisation is about 56%. Debtor days are rather high - Are they all collectable?
However, they have a significantly stronger balance sheet with more cash and lower intangibles ratio relative to BDI - (as shown on advfn, so needs checking as only updated on annual results, I think.)

[shanklin] 23/2/2010 15:41

boadicea

Just saw your post on the CHNS thread.

No position here or in GLD but FWIW Constellation are one of the companies taking an interest in acquiring GLD.

Cheers, Martin