Bond International Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 31/3/2009 16:22

I'd go along with your view, Boadicea.

Comment here:

[boadicea] 31/3/2009 09:13

The fall in the share price over the last quarter of 2008 appears to have been overdone although perhaps understandable and the modest recovery in the past week or two looks well justified by these results.
The increase in repetitive income to almost half is a strong plus point with the maintained dividend as a sweetener, offset by a couple of negatives that I note.
One is the lower (but still quite adequate) amortisation/depreciation charge compared to py, when I had expected that it might actually increase. Without that help the bottom line would have shown a larger fall although it does not affect ebitda.
The other is that the increase in cost of sales was more than the increase in revenue, or put differently, there was a significant fall in margins. One hopes this point is addressable.

All in all, I don't think there is much recovery in prospect until we have seen how it continues to weather the economic storms. The next six months' results should tell us a fair amount of what we need to know. Further out, the eventual prospects for recruitment services subsequent to a severe contraction and downsizing by companies, is generally quite positive. At current share price I am prepared to sit it out.

[jonwig] 31/3/2009 08:56

They're using the right confident words, aren't they, Stefield.

I'll have a closer look when I've time, but margins seem to be down - hardly unexpected as they signalled that.
Also haven't looked yet at effect of acquisitions.

I suspect the share price was marked down at the open on weak overseas markets. The UK market seems stable, so maybe buyers will enter.

[stefield] 31/3/2009 07:46

results out.
seem pretty good considering.

[jonwig] 23/3/2009 18:49

Slapdash, the broker estimates I gave in post #1755 are EBITDA anyway.
As for slippage, they've already indicated the possibility.
And the share price? The drop to 32p in January was hardly over-optimistic!

[slapdash] 23/3/2009 17:58

well I would expect lots of writeoffs on their boom conditions aquisitions at the very least (goodwill writeoffs)...

as for future trading we shall see.... hard to see how they won't be affected...

Slap

[parvez] 23/3/2009 16:25

this is has now turned after a period of consolidation in the share price

[boadicea] 18/3/2009 13:15

Current market fears are about forward visibility as much as (or more than) about last year's outturn.
Recurrence of revenues is one of the factors that Bond have been busy addressing. Continued success in that direction should be good for the share price - if anyone notices amongst the surrounding strife and corporate carnage.

[jonwig] 16/3/2009 15:52

There's a recent broker estimate from Oriel, Boadicea, of pbt £6.5m and eps of 14.5p. (That will be EBITDA.)

And another contract win in the US:

[boadicea] 16/3/2009 13:03

Results and analysts presentation scheduled for Tuesday, 31st March.

[jonwig] 09/3/2009 13:35

[ Johannesburg, 9 March 2009 ] - MCI, the exclusive distributor for Bond International Software in South Africa, and the largest distributor of staffing software in Africa, today launched 'Adapt on Demand', a customised version of Adapt, provided on an affordable monthly rental basis.

[jonwig] 06/2/2009 08:45

Not insignificant, considering all the reports of data loss in the IT sector:

Bond TeamSpirit has recognised the sensitivity of the data it is entrusted with and the responsibility this entails by achieving full certification for ISO27001:2005 – the Information Security Standard.

[markt] 14/1/2009 22:56

another point...

Directors wages with bonuses add up to not much below 1M pounds.
And I think that PBT was 3M last yr....
400 workers, shareholders own the company...... and yet 1/3 of the gain goes to the 3 directors, ...seems bad balance if you ask me


and the directors dont walk on water....can not stop the slump due to the global recession.
-------

Recruitment sector is of course being hit hard.....since theme is lay offs and not recruitment....
so profit will fall hard....

so perhaps profit in next 12 months will be much reduced....
and then perhaps the dirs. benefits will be large part of the PBT....with little for the shareholders....and shareholders will have sufferred large loss of cash....esp. anyone who bt at 200p !....(Im not a shareholder....
market looks set to go down for months or longer......so no point in buying anything in my view....

....sadly all the new unemployed will reduce the spending ...resulting in more layoffs ....Govt.s are fighting hard to pull the plane out of this dive....difficult. Solution ? No idea !

[jonwig] 13/1/2009 07:46

markt - depends on the rental contract, I suppose. Will it be like long-lease property or daily car hire?

Dunno - but you make a serious point.

[markt] 12/1/2009 22:55

....moving to renting software rather than selling ...they say...

How will renting of recruitment S.W. be affected by the fact that recruitment has crashed ?.

And I assume that recruitment companies are getting rid of lots of staff.

If they switch OFF half of their recruitment PCs then I assume also half of rental money to Bond will go.
Recruitment companies will surely be doing a massive cost cutting just to stay in business...but I have not been looking at their news ...and S.W. renting if not much work to do with it will surely be one of the items , no ?

Unemployment rising sharply in most countries that are the main customers of Bond.
And lots of announcements of going bust....so big cost cutting going on by many of the cos. that stay in business.

Not all of Bonds income but very large part of it....is it > 50% ?

[jonwig] 10/1/2009 07:38

According to the Daily Mail, the share price was helped by a Cenkos recommendation yesterday.

[boadicea] 09/1/2009 15:07

jw - Surprised me too. The converse of what I have mainly seen recently which has been a small rise followed by a large fall on good statements/results.
I assume the statement is better than expected (or feared) and maybe the odd shorter is closing - although I don't think it's necessarily very clever to short a share at this level where upside risk (e.g. from t/o approach or mbo) could be significant.
I suspect the maintained divi (a practical show of confidence) may have helped.

A 23% rise on modest volume shows how sensitive some of these small caps are and seems to suggest that sp's are quite unrepresentative of underlying value.

[jonwig] 09/1/2009 14:02

slapdash - goodwill on the balance sheet makes your point, though how cashflow does I leave you to explain.

However, we are where we are, and BDI are unlikely to overpay for acquisitions in the near future in quite that way. Maybe gather some distressed assets?

The point is not the past, but where we go from here. The rise this morning was a bit of a surprise to me - maybe the MMs were asleep, too.

[kruger2004] 09/1/2009 11:53

given markets they are in, a very encouraging statement. They have huge coverage in terms of recurring revenue.

[jonwig] 09/1/2009 10:28

Hi, Boadicea.

I estimate an Op Pft of £5.4m means PBT of £3.4m and PAT of £2.4m or 7.2p/sh and P/E of 4 to 5.

Gross margins look to be falling, but they said as much at H1 stage.
How will 2009 stack up?
I'd agree contracts are more likely to be cancelled than deferred but earnings should be moderately resilient.
Trouble is, I don't see BDI as being first up when the market turns.

[slapdash] 09/1/2009 10:16

key issue is what is cashflow... as stated previously... these guys bought other companies at the height of the boom...... perhaps not the wisest thing to have done... Slap

[boadicea] 09/1/2009 09:40

Implied H2 op profit is £2.7M (last H2 £4.2M).
This follows a drop from £2.9M to £2.7M in H1.
Given the steady increase in recurring revenues there is little worry about the overall future of the co (imho). Just glad that I'm under no pressure to sell as those who are will get meagre measure for some time ahead.
I think we must assume that many of the 'deferred' contracts may not materialise.

At least the div yield is nearly 5% which is more than I can get on any safe current account.

[jonwig] 09/1/2009 07:27

Not unexpected (slippage of orders) but pretty robust.
How much is already priced-in?
I suspect most of it, but "wdik"?

Bond International Software plc, the specialist provider of software for the international recruitment and human resources industries, with operations in the UK, USA, Australia and Hong Kong issues the following update for the year ended 31 December 2008.

Since the announcement of the interim statement, the group has seen a deterioration in trading conditions in some of the markets in which it operates. As a result, a number of key contracts which the group had expected to sign in 2008 have been deferred.

The group continues to trade profitably and expects to report revenues in excess of £31m for the year and an operating profit of not less than £5.4m.

The board intends to pay an unchanged dividend of 1.6p.

Outlook for 2009

Despite the difficult trading conditions there are number of reasons to remain optimistic about the group's prospects for 2009. The group has a high level of recurring income across all divisions, has good order books and sales prospects and continues to take orders at an encouraging rate. We have already taken steps to reduce operating costs and we will continue to ensure that the group's cost base reflects trading conditions. Bond remains the leader in its sector and the board continues to view the future with confidence.

The group expects to announce its preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2008 on 30 March 2009.

[jonwig] 02/1/2009 13:40

Can't help you there, Bainsey. Sorry.

16,500 shares sold did the damage in 4 lots (unless more is to come ...)

Trading update end-Jan if same as last time. As I posted, I think 9p/sh is OK with possibility of slippage of contracts.
Balance sheet suggests they won't be too stretched financially.

Just a matter of time before 'recruitment' takes over from 'redundancy'.
Meanwhile, the low share price gives opportunities to add on any encouraging news.

[bainsey] 02/1/2009 13:21

when did techinvest last comment on this stock ? what did they say ?