Blur Group Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 22/4/2014 20:16

Unfortunately there is no mercy these days, after 1999/2001, for blue sky ideas that fail, maybe the mistake was to emphasise the way that Letts promoted the product, I still believe you will see success here with a tweak or two, and a more patient market, what the urgency is I'm not sure, the platform seems to be doing the job, and they are certainly getting more publicity than they ever bargained for now, London market seems obsessed with profit/loss!

[hamidahamida] 22/4/2014 19:05

They are not telling us the truthSomething is seriously wrong after all those multimillion pound submissions of contracts and yet the 2nd half turnover will be less then the reported 1st half, to many unanswered questions for me, it stinksThis will go back to flotation price I think.

[hamidahamida] 22/4/2014 18:52

1st half turnover 3.4million2nd half turnover 2.0million (it's less then 1st half) What is going on, turnover went backwards

[stuart37] 22/4/2014 15:45

Does anyone have a later number than June 30th 2013 for cash and cash equivalents - where i can see they had £13.1M.
Thanks for any help
Stuart

[stuart37] 22/4/2014 12:32

Yes, there is no way this company can be written off by investors - a lot more to come but a little patience is required.

[j777j] 22/4/2014 11:53

So a jump in revenues from an average of $183,000 a month in 2012 to $450,000 a month in 2013 to $2,033,000 a month in 2014.

Digital look have $49 million revenues,or $4,128,000 a month pencilled for 2015



Wowzer and they have only just launched Blur 4.0 which Letts thinks will lead to much greater levels of completions.
The far east already accounts for around 12% and they are expected to open an office out there soonish.

This follows on from the success of having two offices in the USA which has led to around 53% of the business being generated from there.


They have recently launched two new categories on top of all that.

[xjhoward] 22/4/2014 11:50

I'm in 500@252.8p

[stuart37] 22/4/2014 11:49

Al H,
As you don't know the answers to your rhetorical questions, not really sure you are in any way able to pass off their business model as "flaky". They have done the sensible thing re accounting and this year may well prove to be the turning point - AIMHO.

[haydock] 22/4/2014 11:48

Some of their clients saw a bargain:
£150.000 bought in 4 deals @ £2.55

[xjhoward] 22/4/2014 11:44

Then it seems my 30m revenue prediction is too optimistic.

[j777j] 22/4/2014 11:36

blur Group building foundation for future revenue, says Liberum

By Giles Gwinnett

April 22 2014, 11:10am

Following last week's trading update, the broker has cut its full year 2013 revenue forecast by 42% to $5.4mln but keeps its 2014 revenues unchanged at $24.4mln


The increasing size and value of project's being managed on blur Group's (LON:BLUR) global exchange changes how the firm's revenues are recognised, notes broker Liberum, which rates the shares a 'buy'.

Following last week's trading update, the broker has cut its full year 2013 revenue forecast by 42% to $5.4mln but keeps its 2014 revenues unchanged at $24.4mln.

Since the second half of last year, multi-million dollar, longer time frame projects have started on the exchange, resulting in extended periods between project submission, kick-off and completion.

"Whilst earlier projects were small and would typically complete within a few months, the exchange has recently seen numerous projects in the $1m to $16m range which in some cases are expected to take over two years to complete," highlights analyst Janardan Menon.

The smaller projects required a 50% cash payment upfront but these initial payments are smaller for larger projects and further payments are milestone based, said the analyst.

As an example, blur in 2013 saw total bookings of projects starting valued at $22.2mln. But only about $5.4mln will be actually recognised as revenue in 2013 due to the delayed recognition of the rest of the revenue.

The remaining $16.8mln is expected to be recognised in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

The change in revenue recognition policy is a result of the growing complexity and duration ( greater than 2 yrs) of the very large projects being submitted.

"It suppresses near term revenue growth but builds a foundation of revenue for future years. The underlying growth rate remains solid and usage by major corporates is increasing," says Liberum, which also cuts the price target to 600p from 700p based on a lower multiple of six times for enterprise value -to - sales ratio.

Shares dipped today 8.93% to stand at 255p each.




So 2013 revenue forecast $5.4mln

2014 revenues forecast $24.4mln


At the rates the exchange is growing the 2014 forecast looks conservative

[xjhoward] 22/4/2014 11:35

Blur's revenue is 10-20% of listed project value. If assuming Project value in FY14 is $300m (Q1 73m), booked revenue should be $30 - 60m. Booked revenue in FY13 is 22m, which mostly falls in this year, so we should look for revenue at least 30m in FY14.

[al h] 22/4/2014 11:24

And what if the client isn't satisfied with the completed project ? How is this resolved, and if it isn't resolved does the client get their listing fee back, which on a high value project is substantial ? Very flaky business model as it stands right now.

[xjhoward] 22/4/2014 11:09

What are the main steps in blur's project management process?The first step is for the project to be submitted onto the Global Services Exchange. Customers submit a project brief including a budget, timescales and project deliverables. The project brief is then reviewed by blur's proprietary platform supported by the Exchange Support team prior to it being listed on blur's Exchange. Experts (or service providers) respond to the listed projects by submitting their pitches through the Exchange. blur's advanced technology supported by its Exchange Support team review the pitches using a combination of proprietary intelligent decision making and matching technology, and the knowledge and understanding of the customers' requirements. Typically blur's system will shortlist at least three pitches for the customer to review within their Cloud based dashboard which the customer can then interactively review through the pitch review process. Once a pitch is selected and specific project milestones are agreed then the project kicks off. blur's Global Services Exchange and related project management and collaboration tools are used to ensure that the project is completed on time and within budget.

[kfp] 22/4/2014 11:09

Massive valuation compared to revenue, seen it all before.

[xjhoward] 22/4/2014 11:06

How does blur's revenue model work? (From blur's website)blur's core revenues are driven by project revenues which represent the amount billed to the customer (in true e-commerce style) for the value of their project. blur makes a margin on each project which starts or kicks off in the Exchange. This is typically 20% of the total project value. In addition blur charges a listing fee which is currently the higher of 10% of the total project value, or $375. This is payable once a project is listed on our Exchange, although this is currently waived if the project subsequently kicks off.

[hazl] 22/4/2014 10:57

there is also buy low sell high kfp!

It is a tricky company to predict....each person has different risk parameters and should make up their own minds.
imo 8-)

[kfp] 22/4/2014 10:43

TheMadStork
Never try to catch a falling knife !

[al h] 22/4/2014 10:43

Should be due a technical bounce if nothing else, traders don't really care about fundamentals (as long as it's not going bust any time soon):

[hazl] 22/4/2014 10:31

herd mentality in reverse. imo

will hold my few shares and hope for the best.

good luck people.

[haydock] 22/4/2014 10:11

Lets have some fun with Blur.
This is the viewpoint from the 3i bb, With thanks.


09:57

Sell Re: counting revenues

alecro

The market has rumbled this outfit. It showed what it is about with the last RNS and put its foot in the brown stuff.

I agree it seems to be back almost where it started as regards revenues. Then again, its main revenue to support the its lifestyle it has become accustomed too is YOUR money so I agree too that shareholders should expect another new share issue..

What was IPO price?
09:24

Re: counting revenues

paccamac

Avanti had a viable business model whereas blur's remains unproven and IMHO one that will never work.

In spite of last week's fall their market cap is still north of £80M which is very high for a company with tiny revenues (£3.2m), huge losses and - most importantly - no track record or evidence to suggest that the growth will come through in future years.

They will need to do another rights issue in order to stay afloat and I can't see them doing this at the current share price so I can see the share price falling a lot further, perhaps back to IPO levels.


Hmm general optimism prevails then !!!

[haydock] 22/4/2014 09:54

Good morning Pyglet: it was you who got me into this company !!

Actually still many thanks.

I now think you & others are reading this wrong.

Follow the American model, it is just those hits that do count as they show that the platform growth is exponential, indeed the whole point of the 2 RNS released was to tell us all that is the case.

In the end it's the platform that counts, not what the mkt thinks about the accountancy problems of a fast growing Aim tiddler, on a day to day basis.

Now there will be opportunities to reduce my far too high average, perhaps when the dust settles, as May is also on the horizon.

Cheers : a learning as always,Hay.

[hazl] 22/4/2014 09:51

still a fair amount held imo

[stuart37] 22/4/2014 09:51

Projects that have kicked off are already included in the metrics - see RNS from last week.