Blur Group Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 17/4/2014 13:46

Pretty much every thing hashed out here, however it's clear that although overall reasonably low turnover in shares considering the revenue warning, Lett's not going to be afforded another chance to redeem himself, after all he is the largest shareholder, so he should temper his 'gob spiel' a little, unless he wishes to damage his and other's wealth more. In a way the fall a little overdone, but then there is clearly a small market in this stock, be interested to know how much held by retail investors, in terms of completed projects, it's slightly surprising low levels, maybe they are submitted on a simulated basis by interested parties, smaller ones should be mopped up pretty quick and completed likewise, a wee bit confusing, so a little transparency might be helpful at the year-end results.

[xjhoward] 17/4/2014 13:30

Agree. metrics update should include project successfully completed numbers.

[stegrego] 17/4/2014 12:38

Xjhoward,

No one will tell you the answer because no one knows.

Except the company and they only spin good news.

Its very worrying that only around 25% of projects appear to actually get off the ground.

How many of those 25% actually go without a hitch? Have they actually completed any projects of any scale? What happens if they get disputes?

Tonnes of questions and pitfalls yet it all gets glossed over. Letts is a spin merchant and little else.

You dont need to be a genius to figure out that a million pound project is going to take more than a few months to complete.....

[xjhoward] 17/4/2014 12:18

Anyone has idea how long it will take from project submitted to kicked off. Or how long will a project stay at the exchange before withdraw if nobody take it? It seems the kick off number is very low comparing to submit numbers. The current quarter kick off still less than submitted a year ago. I guess the project withdraw /submit ratio will be quite high. Anyone has this number?

[j777j] 17/4/2014 12:08

Listening to that I am surprised the shares are not up 30%.

Q1 metrics through the roof.

Very strong adoption in USA.

Asia now around 13%

Ever larger projects being submitted which will provide greater visibility

Increasing number of repeat business.

This is a young ,dynamic fast growing business that would probably have been served better if owned by private equity at this stage.

Funny old thing the markets.

[stegrego] 17/4/2014 11:58

'This is evidenced by the strong financial performance in Q1 2014. '

Where is that performance evidenced? Any figures supplied?? No.

[droid] 17/4/2014 11:34

Letts on today's metrics :

[twaintwix] 17/4/2014 11:34

Cheers J777J.

And there's more!!


UPDATE - blur Group's lifeblood remains strong

By John Harrington

April 17 2014, 10:53am
'Our project values are ahead of plan and we have taken on our largest ever project worth US$15mln from our legal category,' said Philip Letts, founder and chief executive officer of blur.
"Our project values are ahead of plan and we have taken on our largest ever project worth US$15mln from our legal category," said Philip Letts, founder and chief executive officer of blur.


Crowd-sourcing leader blur Group (LON:BLUR) is seeing a pick-up in the value, length and complexity of projects much earlier than expected.

The group said the trend in project bookings is giving the firm more transparency in terms of revenue visibility.

In a trading update covering calendar 2013, the group revealed that since the second half of last year, multi-million dollar, longer time frame projects have started to be managed through blur's business exchange, which has resulted in extended periods between project submission, project kick-off and project completion.

In view of this trend, the board has taken a more conservative view of project revenue recognition with several larger value projects extending over several reporting periods or years; what this means is that a significant proportion of the revenue associated with project bookings achieved in 2013 will be recognised in 2014 and beyond.

The upshot of not wanting to be one of those companies found to be booking revenues before they are really earned is that recognised revenue for 2013 will be lower than expected, as the expected revenues will now feed through in 2014 and beyond.

Recognised revenue is expected to be in the range of US$5.3mln to US$5.6mln, which is still a significant uplift to 2012's figure of US$2.8mln.

Total project bookings are expected to be around US$22.2mln, versus a figure of US$$2.4mln in 2012, an 825% increase year on year.

"Of the remaining project bookings that carry forward, we expect the majority to be recognised revenue in 2014. This is evidenced by the strong financial performance in Q1 2014," the company said.

On the subject of first quarter metrics, there is a decidedly American accent to the update, and not just because project values are reported in dollars.

The number of projects submitted in the quarter shot up to 1,031 from 359 in the corresponding quarter of 2012, with the group revealing 52% of the project coming from North America.

The value of projects submitted in the quarter was US$73.7mln, a stratospheric rise from the US$3.89mln figure for the first quarter of last year.

The average submitted project value rose to US$71,500 from US$10,840.

[j777j] 17/4/2014 11:18

First broker comment...


Broker N+1 Singer conceded that the revenue guidance downgrade to US$5.3-5.6mln was disappointing, being some US$4mln below the broker's previous expectation, but "the bigger picture is still one of growth".

"Forecasting the exact trajectory of high growth businesses is always difficult but the direction remains impressive as shown by its Q1'14 metrics, surpassing what was a record‐breaking fourth quarter in 2013," the broker noted.

"The Q1'14 metrics show the lifeblood in the business remains strong and that it remains uniquely well‐positioned to disrupt the significant global market for business services," the broker added.

The second quarter appears to have got off to a good start, as well, N+1 observed.

"A quick look on the exchange today shows the total value of project submissions has grown to US$225.8mln – implying that Q2'14 to date has already seen US$36.8mln worth of projects submitted only 16 days into the quarter," the broker calculated.

This should give some perspective on the group's current and future growth trajectory, the broker concluded

EDIT now $226,727,726

[stegrego] 17/4/2014 11:17

None so blind as those who cannot see.

Anyway, Ive sussed out why its dropped so far....

Not a mention of the word 'trillion' in either RNS.

Doh!

[eric76] 17/4/2014 11:00

Good post haydock imo and a timely reminder that along with fast growth losses were actually expected til 2015.
Filled a small gap at the £3 mark will watch to see if that can become support.

[haydock] 17/4/2014 10:52

Now supposing that Mr Letts was working along the lines of Mr Bessos, what signs can we see from the snippets he has given us ?

Recognised revenue is expected to be in the range of $5.3 million to $5.6 million for 2013 (2012: $2.8m) with total project bookings for the same period of $22.2 million (2012: $2.4m), an +825% increase year on year. Of the remaining project bookings that carry forward, we expect the majority to be recognised revenue in 2014. This is evidenced by the strong financial performance in Q1 2014.

The accountants have advised caution, & begun to format a sensible way of booking revenue.
Not booked in 2013 as expected, but revenue is carried forward, no problem, just accountancy.

Repeat revenue carried forward.

Look at the final line:

This is evidenced by the strong financial performance in Q1 2014.


A messy way of giving good news but it seems to be there.

What we were looking for.

In the quarterly metrics for Q1 2014 (also released today), blur Group highlights an increase of 19 times the value of projects submitted compared to the same period in 2013. In addition, as highlighted in the metrics, the average project value has increased more than 7 times on the year before, mainly as a result of a higher than expected number of larger projects being submitted and managed through the Company's Global Services Exchange.

More good news:


blur Group grows its first mover advantage as illustrated by the continued increase in bookings which, accompanied by the adoption of a prudent approach to revenue recognition for larger projects, underpins a stronger financial position in the long term. This approach, in conjunction with the very strong quarterly metric results, means the Group is well positioned to continue its growth as it enters the second quarter of 2014.


Note: Strong financial position, although qualified, in the long term.

Not really any problem with that statement.

2nd RNS is all good news, repeat business, inc a company that is part of G.E. Momentive, very impressive.

The only figs we have to go on show impressive growth trends:Very impressive since 2012.


blur Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
qtrly 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014
metrics
2013
-------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Projects
submitted 129 182 215 250 359 410 598 719 1,031
-------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Value
of projects
submitted $1.36m $1.98m $2.90m $4.01m $3.89m $9.41m $17.3m $64.52m $73.7m
-------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Average
submitted
project
value $10,500 $10,900 $13,500 $16,050 $10,840 $22,943 $28,800 $89,700 $71,500
-------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Projects
kicked
off 31 53 68 89 110 129 160 180 210
-------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total
experts 14,318 19,856 22,500 23,275 25,310 28,144 31,061 34,109 38,175
-------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
All in all, then a pile of good news, a little late & no profit & loss figs.

What was the mkt expecting & did not get ?


Liberum forecast that Blur was likely to report revenues of $9.4m in 2013 and $24.2m in 2014, but that the company would be lossmaking until 2015. The brokerage's analysts estimate that the addressable market for "services commerce" is $1.1tn, and that Blur could process more than a $1bn in transactions within a decade.

Note: but that the company would be lossmaking until 2015

Over reaction by the mkt? To what is actually a company growing very quickly into a very significant niche ?
Blur achieved all they asked, the accountants decided to re-state the figs ?

Reality, mkt miss perception , nowt new there then?

I could have a half full glass, I always have, & it's usually expensive, but that's the way I see the statements in front of me.

[leedskier] 17/4/2014 10:39

When Convent Garden based King Co. (owner of Candy Crush) listed in New York many in the US were asking why this go to British company should list there. So, I think it was, the Wall Street Journal wrote a tongue in cheek piece about why UK technology companies were listing there in preference to London.

The reasons included:

1. Most had to list in London initially on the Aim market.

2. London was risk averse.

3. London did not know how to value technology companies properly.

4. There was insufficient liquidity in London to achieve proper valuations in technology companies highly dependent on valuing projected future earnings.

Ironically the excuse in London for shorting technology shares is that the NASDAQ is showing signs of having been overbought. But that is to ignore the fact that London listed shares have never achieved NASDAQ valuations.

[bones] 17/4/2014 10:25

"Current market forecasts" in the above note is irrelevant now as the method of recognizing revenues has changed as today's RNS states. Work is needed to put the new accounting methods into force and hence why the publishing date is put back. I cannot spin anything positive into that unfortunately.

[bookbroker] 17/4/2014 10:24

The price you pay for re-stating your results, Letts has a lot to answer for, he of all people should know that being conservative in your accounting is necessary, he was after all experienced the boom and bust of the tech sector in 1999/2000, and the dodgy accounting,forecasts and hype that were deemed unacceptable, and here he has been crowing his head off throughout 2013. I accept that building a business is as much about profile, however when a quoted plc there are shareholders to think about, I'm a holder, have been since early 2013, sold much of holding last year on the rise, but toughed it out with the remainder as I think the concept has a good future, but the board needs strengthening, got some woman called Barbara Spurrier who's been around for a long time, but the cos. she's been involved with nothing to write home about, they need a heavy hitting FD with a reputation to match, Davis appointed last year, left early this year, what was the point in appointing him when he must have known the cos intention to locate its operations in Exeter, I'm getting tired of cos. talking the talk, particularly when their products have great potential, only for management to screw it up, Charles Dunstone a guy who understood his capabilities, a bright guy who possessed great foresight, but when it came to actually running the co. and its finances he ensured he had tremendous back-up, this seems where this co. is lacking! That's it!

[twaintwix] 17/4/2014 10:13

This was written only 3 months ago. Apart from a delay in issuing the annual results what has changed since then?

January 8, 2014 2:57 pm

Blur Group reports surge in 's-commerce'

By Robert Cookson, Digital Media Correspondent



Blur Group reported a 14-fold increase in the total value of projects submitted to its platform in the fourth quarter, as the online marketplace for business services attracted larger customers including Danone and General Electric.

The Aim-quoted technology company, which wants to do for business services what eBay did for retail, said 719 projects worth $64.5m were submitted in the three months to the end of December. That compares with 250 projects worth $4m in the same period the previous year

Philip Letts, chief executive, said the figures showed that "s-commerce [services-commerce] is changing business globally".

A growing number of companies are seeking to cut the time and cost of contracting services such as design and marketing by doing so through online platforms such as Blur and its US rival oDesk.

While much of the activity on Blur's platform so far has involved small projects, that is changing.

The company, which takes a 20 per cent cut of all transactions through its platform, said the average submitted project value was now $89,700, up from $16,100 in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Blur said that the larger value projects tended to be longer in duration and so "build a predictable pipeline with stronger earnings visibility".

Its larger customers include Regus, Danone, NetworkRail, Topman and Momentive, part of GE.

The US and Canada remained the largest market in the fourth quarter, with 47 per cent of all projects submitted coming from this region. Europe was next largest with 31 per cent, while 15 per cent of projects came from India, its highest share to date.

Blur plans to open an office in Asia this year to attract more customers from the region.

The largest number of projects were for marketing services. However technology services was the fastest growing area, now accounting for more than a fifth of submitted projects.

Janardan Menon, technology analyst at Liberum Capital, described Blur's latest set of figures as "extremely strong" and suggested that 2014 revenues were likely to be "well ahead of current market forecasts".

Liberum forecast that Blur was likely to report revenues of $9.4m in 2013 and $24.2m in 2014, but that the company would be lossmaking until 2015. The brokerage's analysts estimate that the addressable market for "services commerce" is $1.1tn, and that Blur could process more than a $1bn in transactions within a decade.

Blur's shares were up 2 per cent to 586.5p by early afternoon on Wednesday, giving the company a market capitalisation of about £174m.

[joe_satriani2] 17/4/2014 10:02

leedskier - from trading update in January:

"The Company will report its full, audited results for the year ended 31 December 2013 in early April 2014".

New date - May 20th. At least a month late...

[timingjim] 17/4/2014 10:01

ZaksTradingCafe Greatland Gold #GGP Unity 5p a share mentioned prostand

news (plural) is out soon

[bones] 17/4/2014 09:56

harissen I took it off the ADVFN financials. I guess they were reflecting last night's value then. Doesn't negate the point I was making is that it is what the market thinks of the value in the current climate of blue sky techs being stuffed. I was simply arguing to Twaintwix that his reasons to expect a major bounce today were wide of the mark.

I do not own this (I held it for about a month last year only and made a little but not much as I sold £5 before it ran up to £8) but I keep a lot of stocks on my watchlist and comment on them if I feel i have something to add. It's only an opinion, not a slag off. Try not to be so sensitive dear boy!

[leedskier] 17/4/2014 09:54

I am not in this, but it has been on my watch list for several weeks.

Is early April to 17 April "... a month..."? On my calendar it appears as about two weeks.

[joe_satriani2] 17/4/2014 09:44

So if $22.2m on bookings in 2013 equates to $5.3m revenue in 2013, how much revenue is recognised from the 73.7m "value of projects submitted" in Q1?
Personally, I feel a 30% drop is suitable punishment for delaying results a month having said back in January they would be announced in early April.

[harrissen] 17/4/2014 09:39

hamidahamida
17 Apr'14 - 09:30 - 1759 of 1760 0 0


Aprox 30 million shares in issue
30x£3= 90 million m/cap


.........................


Correct! Not 100m+ as quoted by Bones.

[hazl] 17/4/2014 09:34

I agree with bones and smarm, added to which techs and the way they are valued
have taken a hit with market sentiment.
Again what goes up quickly can equally go down quickly....look at the volume ....very little for large movements....up or down.

[harrissen] 17/4/2014 09:32

smarm
17 Apr'14 - 09:20 - 1755 of 1757 0 0


twain - read what Bones has said. You cannot sustain a valuation of £100+ million on $5m revenue and no profit (I presume) for very long. At some point a realistic valuation has to kick in.

Imagine you wanted to buy the company...what would you realistically pay for it?

My current target for BLUR is £3 but I wouldn't be surprised to see it back at £1 if revenue doesn't appear.


.................

I read what bones said. You should tell him the price cannot drop by over 30% and still retain the same valuation! Either he doesn't know how to calculate MKT Cap or he is deliberately deramping.