Bluebird Merchant Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[cbeadle] 30/3/2020 08:59

It’s continuing to go the right way although the volume is small, I wonder if the market makers don’t have much stock?

[annie1982] 30/3/2020 08:15

Have been watching this one. Last weeks RNS was very positive and can see this going much higher and gold also

[outlawinvestor] 29/3/2020 20:39

The FT highlighted last week how the shutdown of Swiss gold refineries and difficulties with airfreight is hurting deliveries of physical gold bars to satisfy futures contracts.



In the comment section of that article is a contribution from the founder of BullionByPost reproduced below.

The current situation is completely unprecedented. There is a huge divergence in the spot price and the wholesale rates for small bars (1 kg and less) and coins. The Swiss refineries and some mints are shut whilst physical demand has gone through the roof worldwide. Secure logistics companies are struggling with a lack of flights and border restrictions. The situation with silver is even crazier, we can't even get dates for allocations on future orders and so despite huge demand have very little silver left to sell. We are only selling stock we already have in secure UK vaults, but it is unlikely to last much longer. Interesting times in the physical precious metal markets.....

And this is before any impact from mine shutdowns.

[cbeadle] 29/3/2020 20:16

I am also thinking of the 50% partner Southern Gold listed in Australia. They are much more an explorer but they have interestly largely exited their home market to concentrate on South Korea. Metal Tiger on AIM have recently subscribed and the share price has remained subdued. They could feed more future sites for BMV but I guess they have some more risks tied up in exploration . Eventually if Bluebird continue their rally they will catch up, and the revenue should then start to fund exploration without any dilution. An example of a good symbiotic partnership!

[andy] 29/3/2020 19:36

rakepat,


Out of interest, where do you think the "massive rally" will occur, in the gold price or the stock markets?

[rakepat37] 29/3/2020 19:22

Hopefully we will be one the many few companies producing gold soon with a massive margin - gold did fall over the month but has now rallied and is 1625 to buy at this very moment - very lucky to be in this share at the right unfortunate times - massive rally on the way - share price will hopefully track the rise and once we mine then we should easily hit double figures .

[cbeadle] 29/3/2020 14:06

rakepat37 I agree with you. I wonder if there might be a lag, perhaps an initial drop in the gold price due to margin calls, and the financial crash caused by corona virus.
Also I think silver could be really good value as the gold-silver ratio is at historically high levels

[andy] 29/3/2020 13:36

rakeoat37,


The problem may be that physical supplies are out in most places.

Fancy coins don't offer such value as they are sold at a premium to spot due to the minting costs.

[rakepat37] 29/3/2020 13:14

Personally think gold is going to go through the roof, world is printing money and everyone will flood into gold

[cbeadle] 29/3/2020 12:55

Yes, I notice they must be for the private backers. It’s a good deal for both parties, no threat of any immediate dilution and more funding if the warrants are exercised.
Funding would be very hard in this financial climate. All being well we will come on the radar of more investors, the volume and share price hopefully increase !

[cool runnings] 29/3/2020 09:01

Are you referring to the recently issued warrants ? To raise the short term £200k?

[cbeadle] 28/3/2020 21:46

cool runnings Are the warrants privately held or are they tradable for us, ie listed?
When exercised that will be useful funds, BMV is speculative but if everything goes to plan it should rocket. It’s a stock that has been lowly valued for a long time, overlooked and ignored.

[cool runnings] 28/3/2020 20:56

Previously updating on Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) we noted with the shares around 2p that, considering the gold production opportunity, the funding requirement is modest. Now "the Korean focused gold development group, is pleased to announce a funding update and a statement with regard to the Covid-19 pandemic"...On the latter, with South Korea having been hit hard by the pandemic, shares in the company fell towards 1p. However, the company states now "South Korea is emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic and life is slowly returning to normal". Shares here had recovered back above 1.5p before the company's latest announcement – and it "believes it is unlikely that there will be a long-term material effect to its business or its ability to bring about gold production".In the shorter-term, it has secured a, up to £200,000, five month loan, with fixed interest of £10,000 and including issuing 15,384,615 warrants with an exercise price of 1.3p each and issued 5 million debt conversion shares. It states the funding "to ensure it can meet its obligations until funding for the projects is received".It considers only such an amount necessary since, despite the recent situation, it has been able to secure "a legally binding agreement with a South Korean company in respect of non-dilutive funding to bring about gold production in South Korea. The agreement creates a path to provide US$5,000,000 of debt finance that will be repaid from future gold production. The company expects to update the market in the coming weeks with further detail".It cautions that "whilst the company is optimistic for a positive outcome there can be no guarantee that this will be successful", but its ability to reach the current point despite there the noted recent backdrop seems to support our positive view of the gold production opportunity here. We have spoken to management and they are VERY confident the loan will go through. hat is with a previously stated "50:50 contributing joint venture... over a 3 year period gold production will largely grow organically from 10,000 to 30,000 ounces per annum... estimated average cash cost per ounce (C1 level) is USD 576 per ounce. This is based on both mines over the initial 3 years".Gold is currently at around $1,600 per ounce (and a very positive outlook for it is suggested by the macro situation), but even a $600 per ounce margin on 5,000 ounces is $3 million (currently circa £2.5 million). With the market cap here still below £7 million, ahead of the expected further update "in the coming weeks", which will surely see the shares utterly roof it, our stance is upgraded to STRONG BUY.

[chutes01] 28/3/2020 20:48

news leaked friday afternoon, should see this well over 3p monday.

[rakepat37] 28/3/2020 19:58

Great it's been tipped - have you a cut past from the tipsheet

[cool runnings] 28/3/2020 18:09

Tipped by share prophets .... reads very well.

[rakepat37] 28/3/2020 08:42

We should be really sitting at around 6p, we have all permits, we have financial backing with no dilution, we are backed by South Korea Government, we have full infrastructure and roads in place. Also lots of low hanging fruit (gold) to clear out of the mine even before properly mining . The potential is massive - not to forget south Korea are on verge of coming out of the corona virus epidemic.

[rakepat37] 27/3/2020 15:18

Looking good - massive potential and no dilution

[highly geared] 27/3/2020 00:00

The market looks forward. If BMV , in year 1 (2021) has say 7500 oz attributable gold production, at c. $1000 gross profit, that’s $7.5million.If, in parallel, production is seen to be increasing to the planned higher levels, then the market will see the loan repaid in year 1 and a clear path to large cash flows through 2022 and beyond.

Assuming say 12,500 oz attributable in 2022, that should be c.£9 million gross profit and probably £7 million EBIT.

My price target for late 2022 is 12.5p based on 6x earnings, assuming an established LOM.

[andy] 26/3/2020 23:27

cbeadle,


Agreed, they did handle it well, especially their drive through Covid-19 virus check stations, well thought out in my opinion.


Not sure how that benefits BMV in the short term though.....

[cbeadle] 26/3/2020 21:29

South Korea has really been an example to the world how to handle the corona virus outbreak. This should benefit BMV, if they can restart gold production at the two sites with favourable funding terms the share price should really rocket. It’s certainly speculative, but at the current market cap it’s not at all priced in

[andy] 26/3/2020 20:27

HG,


Exactly, so better opportunities in the producers until BMV commence production, IMO, as they're leveraged to the rising gold price right now.


Once BMV commence production, others may be fully valued and there will be money looking for new opportunities, IMO, and BMV may well benefit from that.

[highly geared] 26/3/2020 18:08

It is Andy and BMV will be a producer within 12 months.

[andy] 26/3/2020 16:22

Surely the best value is currently, in the producers, rather than the explorers and developers?