Blackbird Share Discussion Threads

[kcowe] 08/3/2024 09:24

Cabi1...on zac interview .. he gives growth projections ... R1 value .. Keep growth above R1 ... do the calculations .. its exponential growth .

[pokerchips2] 08/3/2024 09:15

Chris

fair point, true... somewhat speculative indeed .. and it does suggest that training videos etc are part of the launch to get users up and running in less time , and AI support system for FAQ and questions

but ....that is less than £10 a week which when you think about it ..is cheap in terms of the return the product can provide for these high end users ,

I suspect Allenby are envisioning fewer free users from this first targeted group..with them moving quickly to a subscription

[chriscallen] 08/3/2024 08:58

Pokerchips2 The only guidance we have on learning curves is the comparison of 6 months reduced to half a day with elevate.io.

Again we can play around with the average monthly revenue per customer but the only "guidance" we have is the sharp upward revision by Allenby to £36 in their financial model. That suggests that they think the target users will pay more than they originally thought otherwise why would they change it?

[cabi1] 08/3/2024 08:31

HB.

If elevate.io is that good it should go viral on the Freemium package.

[pokerchips2] 08/3/2024 08:25

getting to know the basics should be free .... but seems a pretty short learning curve compared to other products ... looks good for the second Tier Prosumers when the time comes for them

[pokerchips2] 08/3/2024 08:23

horneblower

I think its is down to a "safety play" ...targeting first the ones who can bring in some cash on a regular basis ..first ... and with Pros who are less likely to need much support ongoing

[salmon9] 08/3/2024 08:20

Horneblower
In Ian's Zak interview he said that the Freemium is basic, but if you want to store anything then you will have to upgrade to a subscription. That suggests to me that Freemium is only of short term interest so people can try out how it feels and performs, a bit like a test drive when you buy a new car. You can't go anywhere useful in the car unless you buy it!

[horneblower] 08/3/2024 08:12

My concern is still that they are concentrating on the upper end of the user base where there are far fewer potential clients.

Allenby's £30 average seems high to me. It might be the average price paid by a subscriber but for every client paying £60 or more there will be 500 paying £30 and 5,000 paying nothing.

That means the average is more like £10 per registered client.

That shouldn't be a problem for two reasons...firstly, the potential market is vast, secondly, because it's the cloud, handling huge numbers should not be expensive.

Being cloud-native means being able to handle huge numbers of clients...so why only go for the top end?

Modern business practice means that success comes with numbers. You've got to go for the numbers.

[jj_1237] 08/3/2024 08:06

>>I don't know how easy it is to use Adobe or Avid but I bet it is much harder than using elevate.io

in this interview from yesterday with Zak Mir

hxxps://zakstraderscafe.com/interview-ian-mcdonough-ceo-blackbird-2/8892/

IM says he spoke to an expert who said it would take half a day to teach someone new to use Elevate.io versus months with traditional software!

if true, that is surely game changing.

[pokerchips2] 08/3/2024 08:03

"SBS confirmed that the margin that they will make on elevate.io is in the 90%s."

this is very good as a gross profit margin ...but the important thing is the Operating cost margin as that includes the labour/admin/marketing costs incurred in Elevate

what I do like is IM saying that they will take an "agile development" approach to Elevate based on learning from the Community and market and as such refine and expand the product based on needs .... which supports a focused and disciplined view on expenditure ( Sumit influencing that I suspect)

[chriscallen] 08/3/2024 07:50

During the presentation SBS confirmed that the margin that they will make on elevate.io is in the 90%s. So if they phase payments to those who make introductions, which is not unreasonable if they don't want to end up paying the full amount for a user who only stays for say 3 months, they do not need to raise cash at all.

Allenby used £23 in their original financial model but in the update published this week that has been revised to £36, which is evidence that whoever was feeding them the figures now believes that customers will pay more.

Any business that is in the same market will be worried by the entry of elevate.io because it may well pose an existential threat to that portion of their customer base that elevate.io is targeting e.g. YouTube in 2023 apparently had some 15M video creators and they cannot be an isolated example. I don't know how easy it is to use Adobe or Avid but I bet it is much harder than using elevate.io and is not as versatile and responsive. Where users have a problem BIRDs Henry Morgan was reputedly aiming to give a sameday solution and presumably that will apply to the new venture too.

[salmon9] 08/3/2024 07:48

Nick2412
Thank you for the excellent post.
I remember reading the article that you have pointed to, and how good it felt to see Blackbird as a possible future $1 billion takeover target!
Very interesting times are ahead!

[pokerchips2] 08/3/2024 06:50

" does mean that even with a mere £10m revenue (circa 30,000 subscribers at an average monthly payment of £30 as per Allenby's research)

hitting 30k subscribers with a very focused and targeted approach seems very doable , fairly quickly, within a market the size of , say, the US

[nick2412] 08/3/2024 00:24

A fascinating article from 2021 cited that BIRD was a potential target for Adobe. That was a bit premature as the M&E market has declined and Adobe would have known that was the likely trend, elevate launch, however, brings that takeover prospect to the forefront again. NickB has astutely picked up on this - once or twice I believe! My only slightly different perspective is that if Adobe don't strike immediately it doesn't prevent elevate from being a multi-bagger success albeit over a longer bumpier journey. I also think Adobe isn't the only potential acquirer.

It's possible to argue that given Adobe didn't follow the logic of the article below why would they now? I am sure Adobe would have been smart enough to know that the £700m M&E sector was on the decline and, of course, video tools is now the multi-billion market and set for explosive growth. Step forward product ready elevate.

In answer to my question about the staggering revenue multiples being paid by acquirers for products/technologies in the video tools sector, Sumit highlighted another company with an even higher multiple. I'll have to listen again to get the name. It does mean that even with a mere £10m revenue (circa 30,000 subscribers at an average monthly payment of £30 as per Allenby's research) that would produce an acquisition price of around £500m. That would be £2 a share or perhaps a bit less allowing for one more funding (say £10m at 30p) to achieve the subscriber numbers.

I accept the argument of 'why would the big players wait' for elevate's early revenues? Agreed, they may well pounce immediately but waiting a bit is just what big corporations do more often than not. Also, there will be a lot more added to elevate going forward although accepted Adobe could add that and accelerate after the acquisition. Let's agree to differ on that. I do think Ian and Sumit are setting elevate up with a 'come and get us at the right price' thinking.

I also can see that £500m and 50 x revenues offer might either be rejected for a top-end technology starting hockey stick style SaaS growth in a video tools sector that is set for explosive growth. But rejecting is not without risks either in such a dynamic sector. £2 a share with IM's 28m shares and SS's circa 68m shares. Well, we know from the investor meeting they have had 'conversations' with each other on this.

[nick2412] 07/3/2024 23:50

I can see Blackbird becoming a high-volume retail investor's favourite stock. More so as the chance to get into an early Canva style story gets more widely known - which it will after elevate has its general release. It's a positive as liquidity is a good thing even though the quality of the thread may well decline.