Bisichi Share Discussion Threads

[tim000] 17/8/2022 18:02

hxxps://www.news24.com/fin24/Companies/transnet-goes-to-court-to-force-chinese-supplier-to-release-spares-20220817

[tim000] 17/8/2022 09:57

In the BISI 2004 Annual Report, p6, the Report states that their BEE partner Endulwini Resources was awarded 272k tonnes export allocation at RBCT for the year to 31/3/05, and a 45k tonne increase to 317k tonnes the following year. I'm not aware of any change since then. The fact that exports were 320k tonnes in 2021 suggests the company might be increasing its exports slightly by exporting from other ports. [In the TGA presentation they said the company was looking at exporting from a non-specialist port next to RBCT, and Maputo.]

Clearly the incentives to maximise exports are much greater this year than last, and maybe BISI has the logistics in place to ramp up through-put to other ports than RBCT. This of course provides upside to profitability this year.

NB: Companies the size of BISI obviously can be much more proactive and dynamic then their much larger peers. TGA gave the impression of responding very slowly to capacity constraints at RBCT; that's partly because transporting millions of tonnes is much more complicated logistically than moving thousands of tonnes, as BISI does.

[8gggggggg] 17/8/2022 09:31

After TGA results , have decided to accumulate further BISI .Top price 278pDakas

[tim000] 16/8/2022 04:23

Incidentally, Terracom, an ASX listed SA miner, exports via rail links to Durban and Maputo in addition to RBCT. Middelburg is located on the rail link to Maputo. I imagine that BISI could also rail its coal to Durban.

Miners are increasingly trucking coal to port in addition to using Transnet. These alternatives are more costly, but are not constrained - at least not to the degree that Transnet capacity is. We probably won’t be told by BISI whether they are exploiting these options and if so to what extent, but they do exist and are highly profitable.

[tim000] 16/8/2022 03:21

It is not being overly dramatic to say that democracy is under attack across the world due to the rise of global corporate giants, who all are connected and have the same agenda. That includes attacking the living standards of the world’s poor by restricting global energy supply, see Jordan Peterson in the Telegraph. My ex-employer, the Bank of England, was part of this anti-democratic mafia, telling financial institutions not to invest in fossil fuels.

I hate the Chinese government, but it is not stupid and it recognises that threat and is attacking its own giants, hence the demise of BABA. Putin controls Russia’s oil industry etc. It is not being fanciful to believe that the SA government doesn’t want to transfer economic control to its globalist miners.

[tim000] 16/8/2022 03:04

e43, yes it is odd that Transnet report overcoming bottlenecks post their July maintenance work, and that capacity is improving, and yet TGA reports having to lower production and export guidance for H2! It’s not possible to infer what is going on, although one possibility is that the SA government is controlling access to Transnet, at the expense of TGA. Were that the case, that could be to level the playing field and promote the growth of BEE miners.

[tim000] 16/8/2022 02:54

At end April BISI reported they continued to export this year at the same rate as 2021. They have not since given any indication of any reversal of that rate. The Quattro programme allocates 4 mn tonnes exports to junior miners, the last I saw was that our allocation is about 317k tonnes per annum. The owners of RBCT don’t determine who uses their facility, the SA government does!

[e43] 15/8/2022 21:30

I hope TGA were being v cautious regarding H2 Transnet volume estimates,there appears to be a standoff at present,with the big SA exporter's reluctant to sign new contracts with Transnet over some of the terms and conditions.
It was only a couple of weeks ago coalhub.com reported rail volumes were about to increase .All v confused.

[robizm] 15/8/2022 20:52

The big miners own the Richards bay coal terminal so less exports means less room for junior coal miners to export .

[tim000] 15/8/2022 20:41

Transnet isn’t that important to BISI imho, our utilisation of their trains is tiny. My guess is that BEE juniors such as BISI are given priority.

It’s possible to back out domestic prices that TGA achieved in H1. These show a substantial increase on last year, and are consistent with what I’ve assumed for BISI.

Andy makes a good point about BISI’s mining operational costs, which increased nearly 50% in 2021. That was at least partly attributed to difficult mining conditions, which are supposed to have eased this year as BISI moves to a new mining area.

API-4 coal futures for the rest of the year are very strong. While the relationship between the paper and physical markets is uncertain, BISI will probably never have such favourable tailwinds as they have currently.

[andydaf] 15/8/2022 19:28

Transnet is a bit of a two edged sword.Less volume should help support the prices so what you lose in one hand you gain with the other.Of more concern is the increase in costs so hopefully so far as the domestic market is concerned prices have risen.We will have a better idea with the interims and make informed predictions for the full year.Prices for all energy are bound to be volatile but with the EU letting coal power stations run for another two years i think coal prices will be ok.As well as the russian ban i see indonesia mulling another export ban as companies there are not supplying the correct quotas to the domestic market.GLA

[robizm] 15/8/2022 11:07

Not a good read through on Transnet from TGA results. 1st half performance worst than 2nd half and 1st half last year.

[tim000] 13/8/2022 16:26

OK, so yet again "we" bought most of the shares on Friday! I've become a TGA shareholder too, but far too late so am barely in profit.

The BISI Directors must have thought hard about what they're going to do with their cash windfall. South African media still push the climate change/decarbonisation agenda, with the West still wanting to part-finance South Africa's longer term switch to renewables, which remains the SA's government policy. So it seems unlikely BISI will want to invest in new coal assets for the long term, unless they can be acquired cheaply with a short pay-back period. So what will they do with all the cash? Dividends seems the obvious answer: I don't want them investing exclusively in UK commercial property. (I wouldn't mind increased inflows into their equity portfolio.) I don't know what interim dividend they will announce, but I'd hope it's above 25p. If they target a 30% payout ratio, they'll pay at least 30p I think.

I'm hoping they say something about their Vunani partnership.

[8gggggggg] 13/8/2022 15:45

I am hesitant about posting , but I admit to buying 5400 BISI yesterday at 268 average...., Dakas.

[e43] 13/8/2022 15:27

Yes Andy, bought more TGA yday as well, I remember after their final results share price didn't move much, but a week or so later climbed fast.
Will be looking at BISI cash position closely with their results,I'll guess a slightly more conservative 18p DIV .

[andydaf] 13/8/2022 15:13

E43 is another TGA man if i am not mistaken.Lets hope Bisi follows Julys example and pay good dividends.As soon as people see the yields i would think the market cap will take care of itself.I am holding some funds back either for Bisi or LAS in case the market has a bad day.As for Ben it has a good story and promises increases of production.Up to each individual but i can not see Ben being worth circa 5times what Bisi .25pence divi would cost Bisi circa 2.5 million so theirs my guess lets see,not long to wait now.GLA

[e43] 13/8/2022 14:19

Hi Tim,yes I bought a few batches yesterday,and yes still get the feeling less than 10 buyers seem to account for most of the trades but that's a few more than when I started buying 11months ago!
Should start to see a few more buyers after results ,if the company goes down a big dividend increase route shareprice should move up swiftly .
By my calculations approx 33BISI Shares buys one export tonne of bisi production per annum,which seems way too cheap in the current coal price environment.

[tim000] 13/8/2022 11:18

From memory the company has said the interims will be published late August. Last year it was 31 August, but in recent years it has been as early as 24 August. So any day from a week next Wednesday.

[tim000] 13/8/2022 09:07

Quite often the daily buys are dominated by people on this thread. I didn't buy any Friday, but someone was buying. Anyone own up to making a purchase yesterday? Or is general interest in the company increasing as we approach 31 August? Now just 11 trading days left for a top-up.

[tim000] 12/8/2022 00:26

Andy, me too, I’ve reconfigured my portfolio into high yielding fossil fuel shares, on the same reasoning as yourself. I guess most investors experience the thrill now and then of uncovering a new share which they think will multi-bag, and then for one reason or another things don’t turn out as expected and the share is a disappointment. I have quite a few holdings like that. But I’ve never come across a company like BISI where the company announces it’s made a fortune in profits already and the market still ignores that info!! I suspect this is nearly unique in the history of the stock market. I’m baffled why all the coal investors on ADVFN turn to stocks like BEN but ignore BISI. So I’ve invested an amount in BISI which is far more than I’ve ever invested before in a single stock. Now we just wait for the interims….

[andydaf] 11/8/2022 17:56

Tim i think quite a lot of the professionals have sold out of their oil/gas positions and are waiting for the price to collapse due to demand destruction.Coal has become a very leftfield investment and everyone presumes its finished due to years of esg nonsense.I am long oil/coal as even though my shares are well up i do not see $100 expensive enough to collapse demand.Coal is expensive and i can see it remaining so until at least the end of 2023.Most coal miners are now debt free,cashflows are immense and even though share prices and p/e ratios are telling us prices will collapse i really cant see it.Europe needs high kcal low ash coal to replace russian coal.Tga interim divi will be roughly twice what i paid for the share,Petrobras will be paying me 30% interim divi of what i paid for the shares.My policy right or wrong collect the divis and lets see who is right.If i read right mining at black wattle transitioned to better ground beginning of 2022 with a bit of luck as well as prices being good production might be up as well.End of august beckons for the interims.As always GLA

[tim000] 11/8/2022 13:54

The link has a nice aerial picture of Black Wattle colliery. It shows there is a lot of unused land on the borders of the site which I guess is coal bearing. I don't know the location of the 6M tonnes of reserves recently acquired.

hxxps://www.gem.wiki/Black_Wattle_coal_mine

[tim000] 11/8/2022 07:58

From 2000-2021, the ratio of Newcastle coal prices (US$/t) to Brent oil prices (US$/bbl) averaged 1.14. The ratio is currently 4.11, 260% above average. And likely to stay around this level for a while. And yet I haven't seen any of the professional O&G investors on ADVFN switch their portfolios. Bizarre. I'm currently about 40% coal, 25% O&G.

[tim000] 10/8/2022 21:53

Good news today on US inflation, and hence lower US interest rate expectations and stronger non-inflationary GDP growth (but a slightly weaker dollar exchange rate). Hence a stronger US energy demand outlook….and a large hike in coal futures prices. RBCT futures back over $300/t average for 2022 H2.

[tim000] 10/8/2022 07:47

Today is officially NRCE Day: No Russian Coal in Europe.