Bisichi Share Discussion Threads

[tim000] 13/6/2022 20:45

I used to own shares in an Australian iron ore miner which trucks ore 480km to port and is very profitable. I see the distance from Middelburg to Richards Bay is very similar, and exported RBCT coal has a much higher value than iron ore. I imagine the mining costs of coal are much higher too, but even so I agree with Andy that trucking coal in theory would be profitable for BISI.

[andydaf] 13/6/2022 19:11

As someone with a bit of knowledge of road transport i would have thought that even being a seven hour trip with coal at the rates it is at the moment road haulage is a viable option if its available.No matter at the moment bisichi is like a fruit machine stuck on jackpot.Winter in europe is round the corner and i am sure coal will hold up fine.As always GLA

[robizm] 13/6/2022 10:01

Black Wattle is 7 hours away from Richards bay.

[tim000] 13/6/2022 08:29

TGA also announced they’re trucking coal to Richards Bay, although not the amounts. There has been some media articles about increased trucking. I don’t know whether trucking is viable for BISI. But that too reduces pressure on the rail network.

[tim000] 13/6/2022 08:25

Yes, but we knew that already. We didn’t know TGA and maybe others were reducing production in response. And BISI have a tiny market share anyway.

[robizm] 13/6/2022 07:36

It is the opposite, the railways are not delivering so less coal able to get to port. I assume Bisi use the same rail network.

[tim000] 13/6/2022 07:23

TGA published a trading update today, but I can't see anything that adds a lot to our knowledge about BISI. TGA reduced export volumes in H1, I suppose that might provide extra export capacity for juniors such as BISI.

[tim000] 06/6/2022 17:52

People who know the coal market generally think that, while current price levels are probably unsustainable, growing energy demand in India & China, plus European nations looking to find alternative long-term coal supplies from countries other than Russia, plus the fact that only Far Eastern countries are investing in new coal mines, so creating a long-term global supply deficit, means that prices are likely to stay well above historical norms for the foreseeable future. Probably resulting in high prices for the remainder of BISI's current coal resources. Think of BISI as an annuity churning out annual profits of £1-2 per share for the next 8 years. How much would you pay for such an asset in a still low interest rate environment, with possibly low returns from many asset classes? I think I would pay more than £2.30 for such an asset (!), imho with relatively low risk, certainly less than many high p/e US tech stocks!

[e43] 06/6/2022 17:47

Tyou bozzy,today's v pleasing trading statement certainly sets the stage well,(higher shareprice will also help our dear director's with their share options,but will try to be generous today)
Hope this means a substantial dividend will be declared in August,

[bozzy_s] 06/6/2022 16:21

Congrats everyone who held. Hopefully the start of better treatment of shareholders - it's the first trading update since forever.

Maybe you'll even see a better share of earnings (historically 99% goes to directors salaries/bonuses vs 1% to shareholders via dividends).

[cottlet] 06/6/2022 13:22

no graph???

[tim000] 06/6/2022 08:25

Doesn't seem to be on the ADVFN leaderboard today. Is the market up 50%?

[tim000] 06/6/2022 07:34

John Heller/LAS (41% shareholder) won't be happy if his brother takes too much of the profit and leaves none for LAS.

[robizm] 06/6/2022 07:26

Why do you think the heller family will change the habit of a lifetime and share the rewards with shareholders. Profits will rise and shareholders will not see much. This and LAS are ridiculously low market cap yet directors on mega salaries.

They do not have to buy share options in the open market they can issue shares. Why do you think the directors would rather cash than shares in this wonderful profitable company. Hope I am wrong but slim pickings for shareholders imho.

[tim000] 06/6/2022 07:14

BISI's accounts are complicated by the fact that it is not the sole owner of Black Wattle. The BW adjusted EBITDA figures published by the company therefore don't translate exactly into BISI's cashflow and the balance sheet. I've taken quite a lot of time to understand and model the company's accounts. Of course the results are highly uncertain, but I agree with your assessment, Andy. I forecast net cashflow of about £12 mn in 2022 H1.

[andydaf] 06/6/2022 07:05

The way i read the profit warning is that the interim profit will dwarf last years total profit.Sooner or later the market cap will have to rise otherwise we will be in the position of the company being worth less than the cash it will hold.Lets hope coal remains elevated for a while but remenber anything over 160 a tonne is bonanza time fot bisichi.GLA

[tim000] 06/6/2022 06:56

I view anything under £5 currently as a bargain, I'm sure the share price will reach that level once the AR22 results are published next year (earlier, hopefully). If the coal price remains near current levels and BISI's exports remain strong, even £5 will look very cheap.

[tim000] 06/6/2022 06:35

Profit warning! (Profits substantially ahead of last year.) Hardly surprising. Interesting to see what the market reaction is.

[e43] 04/6/2022 07:43

Tyou Tim,look forward to hearing any new info you can get.
Yes Mkt cap is still way too low here considering thermal coal prices and prospects.

[tim000] 02/6/2022 10:00

e43, can’t recall if I’ve mentioned it, but I have fairly large holdings in a lot of Aussie coal miners, and listen to coal professionals on hotcopper, where discussion of coal is prolific. Long-term prospects for thermal and metallurgical coal miners look outstanding, obviously the key issue about South Africa is Richards Bay - the logistical issues don’t just hamper export volumes, but by doing so depress the domestic price seemingly below marginal costs of production. I’ll see if I can learn anything about whether South Africa is proactively addressing these problems, which are costing it a fortune in lost exports and taxes.

[e43] 31/5/2022 21:11

Glad to hear you can get to the AGM Tim, Hope you get some insight regarding the domestic SA coal market etc,and against all reasonable hope make the argument to BOD if they ran the company for all the shareholder's equally the shareprice and dividends would be a great deal higher and everyone richer, rather than the current head down in the trough approach,with outside shareholder's getting the leftover crusts,!
Anyway hope you come away with a favourable impression.