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Bioventix Share Discussion Threads
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|Interesting video discussing the high-sensivity troponin test. It does a pretty good job of explaining the value of the test especially in comparison to the previous generation and the implications of a positive test (since most people will have a positive result). The site is free but requires registration. (Http://www.medscape.org/viewarticle/876735). The second slide for "Case" has a footnote that says that high sensitivty Troponin testing is not yet available in the US but was FDA approved in January (video dated 17 Apr 17). If true, we're three months after approval with no commercial launch yet. It also appears Roche is not allowed to call it a high sensitivity test (at least in the US) but has to refer to it as a next generation test (Http://www.medpagetoday.com/cardiology/myocardialinfarction/62620).|
|Heading back to 1800|
|That's a tad better.|
|It's a relatively sharp fall, but this stock tends to go up 50-60% around results season and then retrace 20% ready for the next wave. Hopefully, this is just a continuation of that trend. If it goes back to the £15 level, I'll be buying some more!|
|xd was last week (the date of Lauders post) when the mid dropped from 1800 to 1775|
|its been on a tear recently so i'm not overly concerned. take a chill pill|
|Div's only 20p though?|
|Ex-dividend drop. Will it bounce back afterwards? Perhaps stay flat for a while as I don't think any news will come for a bit unless mistaken.|
|"Heart attacks diagnosed quicker by new blood test". This new test measures levels of cardiac myosin-binding protein C.
This story was also reported in The Times today, under the headline:
"New blood test for heart attack is 50 times more sensitive"|
|Thanks for the update. Nice to hear they think they have a working antibody for Secretoneurin and are underway for Beta Amyloid.
There's a blog post I ran across on the topic of high sensitivity Troponin (Http://www.emlitofnote.com/?p=3825) which links to a recent study on HS Troponin rule out strategies using the Abbott test (abstract - Http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/early/2017/03/10/CIRCULATIONAHA.116.025661). The blog poster makes the case that the test is very good at accurately ruling out about 50% of the people who present at A&E with chest pain. The incidence of 30 day MACE (Major Adverse Cardiac Event) for those ruled out was 0.1%. But, "This study and its algorithms, however, demonstrates there remains progress to be made in terms of clinical effectiveness – as obviously far greater than just 50% of ED presentations for chest pain ought be eligible for discharge."|
I was speculating as to whether their cadiac troponin could work equally well for positive and negative results.
Have you heard anything?
|Cardinor: Peter said they had made a broad panel of excellent antibodies and have constructed a few ELISAs that have been used on a selection of patient samples from Norway. They are assessing the results nowPre-diagnostics: I believe they have just made the first amyloid antibodies.|
|Thanks for the update. With regards to the two Norway projects, did Peter indicate whether they had a working antibody in place? The CardiNor announcement said: "Under the terms of the agreement Bioventix will develop and provide antibodies for CardiNor’s new Secretoneurin (SN) IVD test. Aimed at the estimated USD 4 billion cardiovascular risk assessment market, the assay is intended for launch in early 2017." The Pre Diagnostics announcement said: "According to Sæterøy, the company is now on track for launching a research only test in 2017"
Collaborating with early stage research scientists on novel tests is a good strategy, I think. The timeframe for commercialisation may be further in the future but it should mean that even if the antibody is particularly difficult to develop they don't have to rely on a diagnostic company (who would demand exclusivity) for scientific insight. It should mean a larger market opportunity (100% available) as opposed to limiting it to the diagnostic company's market share (anywhere up to 20%).|
|Thanks Leon, much appreciated.|
|Nothing much to report from the meeting with Peter.He seemed very confident of an ex-US Troponin launch by Siemens in 2017 and in the US in 2018. Siemens has drawn comfort from the FDA clearance of the Roche test. He believes 2020-2025 will see these tests also being increasingly used in POC early stage detection of heart problems. He also mentioned in passing that some of his team are working on the development of synthetic antibodies. In typical Peter style he underplayed this so I've no idea on the scale of any commercial opportunities which may result. He talked positively of the two projects in Norway. These address two very large markets and could be significant revenue generators in time but stressed that success is by no means guaranteed. The secretoneurin (heart disease) project with CardiNor has been running for almost two and a half years and has made significant technical progress. It's collaboration with Pre Diagnostics in the field of beta amyloid and Alzheimers diagnostics is at a much earlier stage. Bioventix is actively looking for similar opportunities and would like to have as many as ten. Vitamin D continues to surprise to the upside with annualised sales heading to £2.5m with some of its partners enjoying strong organic growth . Siemen's has recently launched its Vitamin D test on its Discovery platform using a Bioventix antibody although this is less widely used than its Centaur platform which includes a Vit D test based around a mouse antibody.|
|Sorry, that should of course read "just below mid price"|
|Interesting trades today. A flurry of "sells" in the last 15 minutes, all just below bid price. Wasn't there an insti briefing day today? Would be interested to hear any tidbits (Leon?) that might flesh out the interim report.|
|FWIW - the BVXP staircase
... where H2 represents the 2nd half of the year to December.|
|For those who haven't read it, here is a nice bit of analysis by Maynard Paton on the interim results:
|Plenty of room for upgrades with those forecasts IMHO (just the way I like it).|
|finnCap forecast changes as requested:
2017 rev: GBP6.3m (+5%); eps: 78.7p (+5%); dps: 51.0p (0%); net cash: GBP5.8m (0%)
2018 rev: GBP6.3m (+5%); eps: 77.7p (+7%); dps: 61.0p (0%); net cash: GBP7.0m (+5%)|
|Some recent research using the high sensitivity Roche Troponin T test following non-cardiac surgery.
“We found that approximately 18 percent of patients will sustain a heart injury after non-cardiac surgery, but without monitoring troponins, 93 percent of these will be missed,” said P.J. Devereaux, M.D., Ph.D., director of cardiology at McMaster University in Hamilton, Canada, and lead author of the study. “Our data show that unrecognized heart injuries may account for about 1 in 4 of the deaths that happen in the first 30 days after surgery.”|
|They've cash of over £5m, and only managed to invest £152k in their new company in the period. As long as it continues to throw off cash they'll be paying special divis.|
|Thanks for that. Are you assuming Troponin sales of £800k next year to cover lost revenue, then rising by 12% annually?|