Nothing has really changed. They are constantly working on new products, but as they tell us every year, even if they are successful it can take a decade for the money to start flowing. I'm not planning on selling, happy to draw the dividends, probably forever. |
I do not agree that BVXP management/the BoD are coasting. Those who were able to attend the AGM last December will have heard management quite enthused - particularly about the prospects for their growing Tau antibody portfolio (the last post also refers). BVXP typically underpromises and overdelivers. It has had a couple of muted years, but it remains a high quality offering. |
 The neurology biomarker portfolio represents a potential growth driver. University of Gothenburg (and others) have been quite active in continuing to publish on brain-derived tau (and other assays that include a Bioventix antibody) with potential new applications in addition to AD-related neurodegeneration. There have been several publications and pre-prints. There are presentations/posters on BD-Tau at industry conferences in April inclulding AD/PD in Vienna (Dr. Karikari sponsored by Quanterix) and the American Association of Neurology (Labcorp). Quanterix are introducing a new p-Tau 212 assay and UGOT/Bioventix have a reasonable shot at inclusion given that the only antibody validated on Quanterix for p-Tau 212 belongs to UGOT/Bioventix. Neurology is a big focus area for the diagnostics companies though, of the IVD majors, I've only found Beckman Coulter to have details of what their development portfolio looks like ( At the Beckman Coulter CMD last year, they were particularly excited to have a comprehensive neurology portfolio in development at the beginning of the adoption wave. Let's take a look. Their first wave of assays includes p-Tau 217, GFAP, NfL and APOE4. These are now available as RuO assays having seemingly completed the development process. The second wave includes amyloid beta 1-42, BD-Tau, MTBR-Tau and TDP-43. These assays are currently being developed. UGOT/Bioventix have candidates that could fit in three of those eight assays (four out of nine if you include p-Tau 217/amyloid beta 1-42 ratio test as a separate test which, incidentally, received FDA breakthrough device designation in January). There might even be room for encouragement given that Beckman Coulter are a very significant customer of multiple antibodies (Vitamin D, estradiol, troponin via sub-license). There's a pretty strong case for BD-Tau to be incorporated into assays measuring specific forms of Tau (such as p-Tau 217 and p-Tau 181). This is because Tau is produced peripherally in the body and if you are using blood tests to try to determine what's happening on the other side of the blood-brain barrier to tau in the brain, it's best to eliminate any noise from tau produced elsewhere in the body. This was the subject of a recent post on Alzforum ( To date only £150k has made it into the income statement but there are some interesting developments and quite a lot of potential. It's worth bearing in mind that the royalty rate could be higher than normal and, at the moment, the costs of these neurology tests is very high. According to this article ([...] the Labcorp p-Tau 217 test running on a Fujirebio machine costs $227 (with some much smaller portion being the cost of the reagents). For comparison, in the US there are about 6m+ living with AD which corresponds rougly to the number of annual A&E visits with complaints of chest pain. |
Cheers multibagger - a good assessment.
I will probably exit...
Suet |
It is an income generating stock which may suit some, but not a growth stock anymore IMHO. The slow share price drift downwards would make the dividend yields more attractive to whom that is important. A cash cow for now but for how long ?
As a biotechnology company with a small niche, the writing is on the wall unless BVXP come up with some fresh products/adopt new technology and methods. The question is whether the founding team and BoD have an appetite for that, or would prefer to gently sail into the sunset ?
As an investor set your expectation sails accordingly.....good luck ! |
I see that the 6 month accounts are due shortly so hopefully they will give me some cheer.
Not overly confident though.
Suet |
well i couldnt resist a few on friday at £28 and a few p |
Yes, it will probably go up or down from here. Or stay the same. |
Lowest Share Price for 3 years |
LLama - I respect and value posts that are factually accurate and that offer insight. Less interested in opinion.
When you say "The company cannot compete with large pharma" other less knowleadgeble readers might draw the conclusion that because of this BVXP does not have a future. Which is not the case.
As you say, BVXP occupy the same sector as big pharma. But thats all. As I suspect we both know, BVXP provide antibodies that are used by large pharma and in that sense BVXP are suppliers to large pharma and not competitors. |
LLama - when you suggest BVXP is competing with big pharma, you show your ignorance of the company.
Suggest you go research the company.
Alternatively you may not wish too ... thats Ok too .... but in which case there is no basis on which you can offer advice to other investors. |
Worth a punt in my view as now below £30 and as far as I can see they are progressing okay in terms of turnover and profit. Meanwhile div is over 5%. Possible candidate for a takeover too. Only slight drawback is it's AIM status and threat of IHT exemption being taken away by Rachel at accounts. |
Well, looks like Indiestu was at least partly right - up £1.50 post budget :-) |
Employers NI would be trivial, they only have 14 staff (12FTE). IHT exemption removal could be more significant. |
What difference will the budget make to Bioventix? UK customers are about 3% of turnover. Employers NI increase might affect them a bit but not significant.
StepOne
P.S. I don't think it will be a damp squib, it's going to a complete nightmare, but that's off topic :-) |
A lovely little wash out today on just 17,320 shares traded. Laughable in all honesty. Once tomorrows budget turns out to be a damp squib lets hope it's onwards and upwards. |
I second that |
Well done multi.
Suet |
Good morning all :)
My post has landed badly - unfortunate. I understand the science and can see where tech in this area is heading and invest with 5-10 year timeframes at a minimum unless the story changes. Though antibodies will have their niche role they will diminish in importance, there is a potential Eastman Kodak v digital, video cassette v digital streaming moment here. Some may prefer not to see what is coming and what was a cash cow could stagnate or diminish - investing is about looking forwards.
I am not here to try and persuade you to invest anywhere :) I have got into APTA fairly recently, so looking at their historical share price at 117p is immaterial to my investment decision. Good luck and we can take stock in about 3-5 years time as to the relative share prices of BVXP and APTA if the AIM market still exists and we are all around.
I wish you well - investing is not a zero sum game but an infinite one. We make our choices and decide what to buy and when to exit.
A note from a very successful, happy and cheerful dimwit :)
For the record: Share prices on the day of the post, 28 Oct 2024
APTA: 0.225p
BVXP : £ 32.50 |
apta hasn't done too well!!!!
Suet |
In terms of diagnostic applications, antibodies have a role but I suspect more rapid forms of diagnostics are coming to the forefront and in due course will supersede antibodies as a class (in general).
Aptamers which are synthetic oligonucleotides with a wider range of applications with regards to proteins, chemical molecules and tissues are specific, tuneable and can be titrated for binding capabilities and are gaining ground not only in diagnostics but also in therapeutic applications. Aptamers can be rapidly developed in several weeks (antibody based development often takes 18-24 months) and are not immunogenic. As they are a synthetic product, aptamers can be endlessly manufactured with no batch to batch variability.
There are already a number of companies in this space, Avacta and Aptamer Group being a couple of examples.
DoI: I hold APTA. |
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