Bioventix Share Discussion Threads

[vprt] 19/10/2021 18:50

You're welcome; great if you get full clarity on this point - please share if you do.

[stepone68] 19/10/2021 17:15

Thanks for the link - very interesting. Might drop them a line.

[vprt] 19/10/2021 16:47

stepone68:

There might be better info than I have about the Troponin deal. Anything definitive from the company itself would trump what I have. The following comments are taken from Maynard Paton's website (recommended!) and his analysis of the INTERIMS:
hxxps://maynardpaton.com/2021/04/09/bioventix-h1-revenue-up-just-1-to-outpace-wider-ivd-market-as-rd-efforts-narrow-focus-and-p-e-stays-an-elevated-32x/

In his analysis, towards the end (in a bulleted paragraph about "downsides" he writes:
“Profit advances for the next few years resting almost entirely on the popularity of troponin, the income from which will expire during 2032;”

Then in the Q&A at the bottom of the page (scroll all the way down):
"My understanding is the troponin revenue stream will terminate during summer 2032 and will be zero thereafter. At least that was the message given by the chief exec during this ShareSoc webinar (available to ShareSoc members only; question asked at c50mins). The chief exec said the troponin expiry “does underline the need for us to develop new things that have value in 2025-2035.”

[stepone68] 19/10/2021 14:26

I suppose the key thing is that there is 1.2m of revenue which will not be in future results. Troponin is roughly half of that level. Even if it doubles again this year, we will be down overall, so we need Vitamin D to return to growth.

There are a lot of things I like about this company - the long royalty terms, the simple results, the low cost of sales, being in the healthcare sector, the dividend and the quick dividend turn around time (ex divi next week and paid 2 weeks later). But it is highly rated so I think share price growth will be limited from here on (unless Troponin really takes off).

[stepone68] 19/10/2021 14:11

Hi vprt - do you have a link to your information on the Toponin deal?

[vprt] 19/10/2021 10:54

The main thing that has stopped me from buying is that Troponin is the big growth hope, but it is not owned and permanent, it is just a contract - admittedly a very long contract (2031, if memory serves?) but as a long term investor I don't like that the expiry (a big cliff edge if Troponin is successful) will loom larger and larger over time.

I love management's frankness about rabbit and synthetics, but long term these threats also add to my unease about paying a big multiple today. (But will keep watching)

[shouldhavesold] 19/10/2021 10:34

That’s daft. It’s the yield on current price that’s the only thing worth considering
Otherwise how do you compare with alternatives for your money etc.
You could have an investment 50yrs old paying 5000% on your purchase price - means nothing if it’s 1% on the current value
Compare like with like
Look to the future, not the past

The yield here is good though

[apad] 18/10/2021 15:01

I paid 3854p for BVXP this morning.
Averaging up, so my yield will reduce 😊

My thinking was that I expected them to be suffering more than they are and previously they have been marked down on opening only to recover as folks find something to be pleased about.

Anyroadup they are 3910 to buy at the moment, so not much of an effect.

apad

BTW I have also observed them being marked down on the ex div morning and then ambling up during the day.

[trident5] 18/10/2021 14:50

18% yield is having your cake and eating it though.

[stepone68] 18/10/2021 14:36

It's fine to talk about yield on your purchase price but you should also value your holding at that price. Otherwise you are trying to have your cake and eat it.

[wildshot] 18/10/2021 11:16

Thank you trident5

[igbertsponk] 18/10/2021 10:51

Yields 18% for me, superb company!

[trident5] 18/10/2021 10:38

Fx hedging?

It's just a mechanism for banks extracting execution and spread fees from customers.

Last year it made £0.2m on fx - this year it lost a similar amount.

It's just swings and roundabouts without any frictional costs

[apad] 18/10/2021 10:28

My average buying price yield.

Bought some more this morning.

apad

[alter ego] 18/10/2021 09:59

7% yield? Total dividends for year ended 30 June are 143p so I make that around 3.7%

[melody9999] 18/10/2021 09:57

Trident - to validate your thinking, Finncap report shows an improvement in revenue growth in H2 over H1 (+11% vs +1%) which I did not pick up from the company RNS. Also H2 troponin sales up 43% on H1.

For me that paints a more positive picture of the prospects going forward.

[apad] 18/10/2021 09:50

BVXP troponin sales doubled. Maybe this is a significant increase given the state of hospitals.

No comment on the Point of Care tests as a competitor.

Easy to hold on a 7% yield.

"Over the next few years, the commercial development of the new troponin assays will have the most significant influence on Bioventix sales. There are currently no antibodies in the future pipeline that are comparable to our troponin products in potential value and the ability to influence revenues in the next few years."

apad

[wildshot] 18/10/2021 09:46

Can anyone remind me why they choose not to hedge their currency exposure? It had an impact on profit this year and is a risk that could be managed, if chosen to do so.

[trident5] 18/10/2021 09:45

Or, COVID has had a big impact on diagnostic demand. Troponin growth about to properly kick in?
In the circumstances the figures reassured me.

[suetballs] 18/10/2021 09:13

Numbers ok but due to length of approval process looks like no real growth in sales until 2025. Shame.
Suet

[suetballs] 07/10/2021 15:25

Monday 18th October - release of audited accounts to 30th June 2021.
Not long to wait and hopefully good numbers.
Suet

[apad] 30/7/2021 21:45

acutecaretesting.org/en/articles/troponin-testing-at-the-point-of-care-what-is-needed-and-when

Worth reading for the tension between time and POC testing vs laboratory testing.

apad

[johnveals] 29/7/2021 10:16

Yes, thanks. A closer look at the cash flow statement shows that is the case.

[johnveals] 29/7/2021 09:07

Interesting metrics. Steadily increasing revenue and profit, great ROCE and cash conversion, but this is not reflected in the balance sheet, where is this cash going?