Bioventix Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 07/12/2022 10:20

Lecanemab (anti-amyloid monoclonal antibody) postulated as potential disease modifying treatment for early-stage Alzheimer’s disease.

This is the first trial using antiamyloid antibodies that shows some slowing down of the cognitive decline (27%) which in real life terms has been referred to “moderately less decline” of cognition/function in the Lecanemab group vs placebo.

It is not known if the slowdown in decline is maintained or even improved with longer treatment. There were two deaths during the 18 months study, in both cases the participants developed intracranial bleeding. So, 50% of Alzheimers patients are unlikely to be suitable.

The cost of the drug (several tens of thousands of £) would be prohibited for most Health Care systems around the world. The drug is delivered via infusion every two weeks and an amyloid PET scan will be required prior to the study to confirm the presence of amyloid plaques and repeat MRI scans to detect the development of small cerebral bleeding.

Drug development and use is glacially slow. Ibrutinib, a powerfull life saving drug for some common blood cancers (e.g. CLL) was approved in the US 10 years before the UK and in Europe 5 years before the UK.

So, whilst there may well be a future relationship between a blood test predictor and a treatment. It'll be a long road.

Diagnosing dementia in early stages can be a subtle business and in lay terms it is usually thought of as some scan results and/or chemical tests. The reality is that cognitive and behavioural tests are the main tool with the physical tests as a follow up.
A powerfull blood test could/might be a significant addition to the armoury and usefull at a much earlier stage than the scans.

apad

[qvg] 07/12/2022 09:54

Maddox, thanks, I defer to your greater expertise!

[maddox] 06/12/2022 21:26

Hi qvg,

The paper casts doubt over the efficacy of reducing Tau as a means of preventing degenerative decline. Whereas Gothenburg Uni/BVXP are focussing on using Tau as a marker predicting dementia at an early stage rather than as a target for treatment.

The paper cites Ossenkoppele et al., 2021, 'Tau accumulation is a terminal event in neurodegenerative disorders, and because the increase of CSF tau in patients with AD occurs closer to the onset of neurodegeneration than does the decrease of Aβ42, tau has been shown to correlate to a greater extent with dementia than Aβ42, with tau aggregates predicting dementia better than Aβ deposits'

The paper is thus supportive of Tau as a predictor of dementia, and hopefully its use in a simple blood test for wide spread screening.

[qvg] 06/12/2022 15:08

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9241406/

This article suggests some pessimism about the potential of Tau?

[whilstev] 01/12/2022 10:23

Possibly explains the late trade yesterday which ignited the share price. Someone taking a stake.

[maddox] 30/11/2022 17:21

Great news today on the potential treatment of Alzheimers with drug lecanemab from manufacturers Eisai and Biogen.

One of the problems with a new drug such as this is how do you identify potential patients at an early stage of dementia that will benefit from treatment. A lumber puncture or a PET scan are the current means of diagnosis - which are impractical.

This is where BVXP has a promising alternative diagnostic. As stated in the recent results:

'a biomarker that has shown potential in Alzheimer’s diagnostics is the Tau protein in the form of total Tau and phosphorylated Tau. During the year we created more anti-Tau antibodies and this work will continue into 2023. Our academic collaborators at the University of Gothenburg have used our antibodies to create prototype assays and have generated encouraging data from patient blood samples. The levels of Tau detected using our antibodies are approximately 2 times higher in Alzheimer’s samples compared to controls, a ratio of 2 times being similar to other research groups. Our scientific target ratio is slightly higher at 4-5 times. We are encouraged by this progress and plan to create more antibodies to support further work with our collaborators in Gothenburg during 2023. The recent success of the Eisai/Biogen lecanemab clinical trial is likely to increase the need for early diagnostics and we are very fortunate to be working with one of the world’s leading labs focussed on Alzheimer’s biomarkers and tests.'

[robow] 23/11/2022 09:18

from Citywire


Ashworth-Lord: Bioventix offers ‘astonishing’ equity return

Bioventix (BVXP), a specialist developer of sheep antibodies, has delivered an ‘astonishing’ return on equity over five years, according to Sanford DeLand fund manager Keith Ashworth-Lord.

Ashworth-Lord, who holds Farnham-based Bioventix in his £855m CFP SDL UK Buffettology fund, said in his latest commentary that the stock remained unchanged ‘despite an outstanding set of results for the financial year ending June 2022’.

Sales were up 7% as its vitamin D antibody returned to ‘double-digit growth’, leading to a 15% increase in operating profit and the operating margin expanding 79%.

‘That is not a typo,’ said Ashworth-Lord. ‘After-tax earnings increased by 15% and 98% of those earnings were converted into free cashflow, which helped to fund a 20% increase in the ordinary dividend and another special dividend.’

He said capital requirements were ‘very limited’ and over the past five years ‘Bioventix has managed to increase after-tax earnings by £2.8m, while the amount of equity capital employed in the business has increased by just £1.7m’.

‘The incremental return on equity over the past five years is an astonishing 164%,’ he said.

Bioventix fell 1.4% yesterday to close 50p lower at £36.50. They have risen 7.4% this year and are up 38% over five years, valuing the company at £190m.

[doctor888] 25/10/2022 10:23

@stepone68: regarding 'significantly' ahead:

forecast was revenue 10.4m, actual was 11.72m, so 13% ahead
forecast was PBT 8.0m, actual was 9.28m, so 16% ahead

[piedro] 24/10/2022 22:32

FWIW ...



... moving up again.

[podgyted] 24/10/2022 17:01

Obviously didn't need luck.

H2 was exremely good. If they at least replicate in both halves in the current year - revenue £14m, and profit after tax of £9.4m - now that would be good!

[stepone68] 24/10/2022 11:44

Margins remain high. Cost of sales for some reason dropped over 100k compared to the previous 3 years.

EPS and divi both around 150p, which was what I was hoping for, leaving P/E ratio around 23 and yield 4.4%. Doesn't look too expensive for a growing company.

Troponin almost doubled (again!). Hope that trajectory continues - they seem to think it might.

They also seem confident on their pipeline of research projects which will delivery revenue 2026-36. Sounds good to me.

[robinnicolson] 24/10/2022 10:50

finnCap have reiterated their 4,300p price target.

Yes...a superb business.

[igbertsponk] 24/10/2022 09:41

Superbly run company. Well done all.

[trident5] 24/10/2022 07:17

2H Revenue was £7m. Looking back there doesn't seem to be much seasonal weighting here. Excellent results.

[suetballs] 23/10/2022 10:02

Yep - I'm optimistic.
Suet

[podgyted] 23/10/2022 09:42

"As announced in our interim results to 31 December 2021, we had a slow start
to the financial year. However, in the second half, we have seen an
improvement in performance and our trading result for FY2022 as a whole is
likely to be significantly ahead of market expectations."

Well, we'll see what significantly meant on Monday.

Being old fashioned - GLAH

[stepone68] 26/9/2022 09:57

Depends on what fx rates analysts have been using in their forecasts, and how much they have changed. Possibly not that much (i.e. they were already lower than spot rate). Plus other companies will also benefit from the weak pound, not just BVXP.

[suetballs] 26/9/2022 07:59

Thought weak sterling would give this a boost this am.
Suet

[doctor888] 15/9/2022 10:51

@stepone68 - thanks for that - great work!

[stepone68] 15/9/2022 09:51

Well, because I've got nothing better to do, I looked back at previous updates. The last one, as mentioned above, was 2017 !

In it, they said, "revenues for the financial year ended 30 June 2017 are expected to be marginally in excess of £7M (2015/16: £5.5M). Since the cost-base of the Company continues to follow a similar shallow trajectory as in previous years, both revenues and profits before tax are expected to be ahead of market expectations for the year ended 30 June 2017"

So, they actually gave a figure for turnover there! Looking at my notes, forecasts in 2017 were saying revenues of 6.3m. After the update, forecasts were showing 7.06m. The actual came in at 7.25m. So that looks like a bit over 10% to me, and they only said 'ahead' (i.e. no mention of 'materially' or 'significantly').

In August 2016 they also gave a revenue number - "in excess of 5.3m", and once again simply said profits would be "ahead". Forecasts had been saying £4.8m. So, again it looks like they were about 10% ahead, and, in the end, turnover was £5.5m.

In both those years, though, the high margins meant that EPS was 30-40% above forecasts.

This year, they did use the word 'significantly', so we should surely expect at least 10%, if not more! So, I'm going to take a punt on 11.4m turnover, eps 150p, dividend 150p - and I'm actually hoping for slightly more!!

Fingers crossed,
StepOne

[alter ego] 14/9/2022 21:28

I’ve always regarded the words “materially221; and “significantly” as meaning more than 10% and more than 20% fwiw

[doctor888] 14/9/2022 17:26

It is very likely to be a record revenue for a 6 month period, but as you say, it is anyone's guess. Has anyone trawled through prior RNS to see what 'significantly ahead' suggests?

[podgyted] 14/9/2022 17:22

I suspect over £11m.

(Why do companies keep on saying significantly/materially/exceeding - just tell us the revenue number - we're not financially illiterate as opposed, seemingly, to the entire of the City.)

Unhelpfully finnCap have not updated their forecasts this morning - they are still showing £10.4m - so significantly ahead would lead me to at least £11m.