BHP Billiton Share Discussion Threads

[idioterna] 28/12/2015 09:36

I never trust pundits who say "..a recovery in the Chinese economy". China has seen annual growth of over 7% for 20 years. That means its' economy has quadrupled since 1995. A recovery suggests a negative, or at best, neutral economic development. The Chinese economy has slowed, I'll buy that, but if a recovery defines growth above 5% as requirement, then Zack is a tool.

A slowdown is a necessity from a global sustainability perspective and might even allow 100 million Chinese to breathe their air again.

[loganair] 28/12/2015 09:24

Zacks Equity Research discusses the Industrial Metals:

2015 will go down in history as one of the worst years for industrial metals, which are trading near their multiyear lows. The slowest pace of economic growth in 25 years in China, the world's top metals consumer, has dragged the industrial metals market along with it.

Moreover, the interest rate hike gave a boost to the dollar, which makes dollar-denominated commodities like base metals expensive, bringing them lower. To stay afloat, mining companies have been cutting costs, slashing dividends and production, and selling assets.

Iron:

Iron ore prices have been in a free fall, losing 43% so far this year. This was due to a weaker Chinese steel market and surging supplies from big miners like BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale. Prices of the metal sank below the level of $40 in December for the first time since spot prices were introduced in 2008.

BHP Billiton posted its worst underlying profit in a decade, Vale reported a loss per share of 19 cents for the third quarter while Rio Tinto suffered an unceremonious drop of 42.9% in underlying earnings for the first half of fiscal 2015. Macroeconomic issues such as the recession in China, Greece debt negotiations and weak prices of commodities in the global mining industry were responsible for dismal results across the board.

Notwithstanding low prices, Vale reported record iron ore production in the third quarter and aspires to mine between 340 million and 350 million metric tons of iron next year. BHP Billiton's iron ore production for the September quarter increased 7% to a record 61 metric tons and its guidance for fiscal 2016 remains at 247 metric tons. Rio Tinto hiked its production in the quarter by 12% and expects to ship around 340 million tons of iron from its operations in Australia and Canada.

Industry Ranking & Outlook – Positive on Iron, Neutral on Aluminium, Copper.

What’s in Store? Iron: The threat of oversupply remains for the iron ore industry as major producers continue to ramp up production. Per the World Steel Association, global apparent steel use is expected to slow considerably, with a decline of 1.7% projected for 2015 and meager growth of 0.7% for 2016. Chinese steel use will decline 3.5% in 2015 and 2% in 2016. China is the largest consumer of iron ore, accounting for around 60% of the global seaborne market. Thus, the mismatch between excess supply and demand will keep iron ore prices subdued and analysts apprehend that prices for the steel-making ingredient will stay under $40 a ton for the next few years.

To Sum Up Overall, industrial metal prices will remain depressed until the supply glut is eased by production cuts. Moreover, a stronger dollar will keep prices in check. We expect slashing of capital expenditure, suspension of operations and cost saving initiatives to be in the cards. All of these factors, along with a recovery in the Chinese economy, will revive the industry.

[idioterna] 27/12/2015 17:46

In Paraguay 130,000 people have fled their homes:

After declaring the state of emergency, President Horacio Cartes said $3.5m (£2.3m) would be immediately available in relief funds for the victims of the flooding.

That's $3,5 million dollars for 130,000 people.

In the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, nearly 1,800 families in almost 40 towns had been forced to leave their homes.

So given the reaction to the Billiton case, consistency would dictate that the Brazilian government is going bankrupt any day now.

[jamesiebabie] 23/12/2015 22:44

It appears things are getting worse because of the dam failure.

[ny boy] 23/12/2015 18:56

Difficult to gauge as market volumes are very poor, probably short covering rally pre Christmas. Certainly one to watch to see if this can sustain a more meaningful rise in the new year.

[edjge2] 23/12/2015 17:58

Guess if commodities don't drop drastically maybe they'll not knock their divi too much in March, an eon ahead, as thye seem to want to maintain something. Bears might control when the big boys return. 900 for breakout? Oil bounce helps us.

[idioterna] 23/12/2015 16:25

Bloody quiet here when there's any sign of an end to the selling madness. Doesn't anyone buy and hold for a cycle anymore?

[edjge2] 23/12/2015 13:04

Looks like some hydrazine and meths sneeked into the bikers fuel. Warm enough for shorts today here, could be buy back bounce. El nino I suppose to cause droughts in the rainforests and warmer wet windy stuff here. A bit like october's rise.

[edjge2] 23/12/2015 08:29

Brilliant rubberbits, one of my teenage favourites. Miner motors fired up this week too. Out of fuel after christmas after squareballs done their tricks? but hope not.
Don't see an oil quote here. BHP still got their oil?
Not been in for yonks.

[rubberbullets] 22/12/2015 15:55

Get your motor running

[fruitloops101] 22/12/2015 14:18

I've worked in Brazil, it's corrupt to the core. A small handful of people are set to become very rich as a result of the slush fund being created by the Brazilian courts. The New York law firm BLT have instructed have an office in Sao Paulo and will no strangers to the way things work over there.

[idioterna] 22/12/2015 12:58

The politicians of Brazil has put the country in a very precarious situation here (vis a vis Vale). It provides a huge portion of Brazilian GDP and even if the court wants to target the foreign party it's got to cut its' own throat to do so. If Vale bleeds too much the government will fall. They are going to have to tread a lot more carefully now the suits are on the job. Methinks no more legal decisions fired from the hip. Well played BLT.

[ashbox] 22/12/2015 12:33

Think BLT have played it quite well politically so far in that they have been supportive of the immediate requirements and not really mentioned the investigation, until now. Clearly the outcome of the investigation will be critical to the level of financial penalty. on the other side the Brazilians seem to have gone straight to the courts without any mention of culpability. As usual its more about the politics than the facts.

[idioterna] 22/12/2015 12:25

… on top of the situation is the best way to describe it.

Legal Proceedings

BHP Billiton's News Release 29/15 of 30 November 2015 referred to the proceedings proposed to be commenced by the Federal and certain State governments against Samarco, Vale and BHP Billiton Brazil for clean-up costs and damages. The action demanded that the companies establish a fund of BRL 20 billion (US$5.2 billion at current exchange rates) in aggregate. The plaintiffs also requested certain interim injunctions. (BHP Billiton Brazil has not yet received formal notice of these proceedings.)

In connection with these proceedings, on 18 December 2015 the 12(th) Federal Court of Belo Horizonte handed down a decision on the interim injunctions requested.

The Federal Court ordered Samarco to deposit BRL 2 billion to a Court-managed bank account within 30 days. This amount comprises 10 per cent of the total amount sought by the plaintiffs to be included in the fund. The amounts must be used to pay for the community and environmental rehabilitation. A daily fine of BRL 1.5 million applies to Samarco for non-compliance with this deadline.

The Court imposed a restriction in relation to dealings in existing mining exploration concessions held by Samarco, BHP Billiton Brazil and Vale in Brazil such that those concessions cannot be transferred or sold by the current holder of the concession.

The Court also ordered Samarco, Vale and BHP Billiton Brazil to undertake certain remediation actions within specified timeframes. These remediation actions include preventing leakage of waste from the Fundão tailings dam, engaging a consultant to evaluate contamination of fish and implement pest control, removal of mud from the Rio Doce banks, adoption of measures to prevent sludge from reaching the lagoon, and presentation of a comprehensive plan for environmental recovery and socio-economic recovery.

Samarco has advised that the work being undertaken by its team and through external consultants is broadly consistent with the remediation actions ordered by the Court.

[idioterna] 22/12/2015 12:20

…as to the suits (very thin briefcases so they must be good):

"Update on Investigation into Cause

Vale, BHP Billiton and Samarco have jointly engaged New York-based law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP to conduct the external investigation into the cause of the breach of the Fundão tailings dam and the Santarém water dam. Cleary Gottlieb will draw on expertise in disciplines such as geotechnical engineering and hydrology. BHP Billiton has committed to release publicly the findings of the external investigation, and to sharing the results with other resources companies."

Further information on BHP Billiton can be found at: bhpbilliton.com

[idioterna] 21/12/2015 11:48

If that ruling is legal (which I seriously doubt) Billiton should just lay-off the equivalent in employees to cover the cost and let the state support them. Clearly the market has a similar perspective.

[rickmay] 20/12/2015 12:55

LOTS OF BAD PRESS ABOUT BLT ..TARGET £2 to £3.

[idioterna] 18/12/2015 18:01

Cambridge University graduate killed in psychedelic ceremony in Peruvian Amazon, predicted end of commodities boom…

A Cambridge University graduate and successful London financer was killed at a spiritual retreat in the Peruvian Amazon by a friend, after taking hallucinogenic drugs together.
Unais Gomes, 26, was attacked with a knife by 29-year-old Joshua Andrew Freeman Stevens after the pair took a plant brew known as ayahuasca near the jungle city of Iquitos Wednesday night.
Witnesses told police that Mr Stevens, who is Canadian, was acting in self-defence after Mr Gomes attacked him with a knife during an ayahuasca ceremony.
Mr Gomes graduated from the University of Cambridge in 2010 with a 2.1 in Economics, where he was a member of the first rowing team and the Cambridge Investment Club, according to his LinkedIn profile.
He went on to work at Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, his profile said, then at MVision, a private equity advisory firm based in Green Park and SAV Group, a property development company in Pall Mall.

Yep. Right up there with the Partridge Family. David Cassidy has his work cut out to keep up with that series.