BHP Billiton Share Discussion Threads

[netnut] 11/12/2015 11:00

This bit is interesting:-

'especially when there are so many other attractive opportunities also presenting themselves'

[deanroberthunt] 11/12/2015 09:57

when this has all panned out, be able to pick this up between £2-3

[loganair] 11/12/2015 09:42

The rebound in BHP Billiton share price proved short lived following what was another night to forget for global commodity markets.

Indeed, today’s plunge appears to have been caused by further weakness in the iron ore and oil prices overnight. Rio Tinto's) share price has also retreated 0.5% after iron ore fell 1.4%, according to the Metal Bulletin, while oil prices are hovering near their lowest levels in six years as well.

Brent oil fell nearly 1% to US$39.72 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was at US$36.71 a barrel on speculation that OPEC will keep the market oversupplied to force prices lower.

Iron ore and oil are BHP’s two most important commodities, and contribute the bulk of its earnings. Lower prices will generate less revenue which will impact both cash flows and earnings. It could also impair BHP’s ability to continue increasing its six-monthly dividend payments to shareholders.

Should you buy?

BHP Billiton is ever reliant on commodity prices remaining reasonable to ensure it can grow its earnings. While it is admittedly doing a good job of cutting costs, it is simply not enough to offset the impact of falling commodity prices which could continue to weigh on its performance, and its share price.

While today’s price tag could prove to be a bargain in hindsight, right now it seems there are too many risks and headwinds facing the sector to justify an investment in BHP, especially when there are so many other attractive opportunities also presenting themselves.

[rickmay] 11/12/2015 08:56

DIVI will go. My Target will come watch !! TARGET £2 to £3.

[montyhedge] 11/12/2015 08:16

I don't think 200p, but 535p if dividend goes.

[rickmay] 11/12/2015 07:18

TARGET STILL ON TRACK !!!! £2 to £3..it's coming folks.

[loganair] 10/12/2015 19:42

Anglo American seem to be in a desperate fight for survival which bodes well for BHP...

Shore Capital analyst Yuen Low has no recommendation and no target price on Anglo American. "The latest round of commodity price falls seem to have set off alarm bells at Anglo American. ‘We wonder if the plans are currently only half-baked’ said Low. We had previously perceived Anglo as the most likely of the diversified majors to go bust. The company is clearly determined to try to survive or go down fighting, but we will have to reserve judgment as to which is likelier for the time being."

Disposals including selling its Minas Rio iron ore mine in Brazil "if anyone is buying iron ore" a move that Anglo said would reduce its mines to not more than 25 from 55.

DEBT WORRIES A number of brokers downgraded the stock on Wednesday and Thursday amid concerns the new plan, which also involved suspending dividends, was only a short-term solution and that the company was not doing enough to lower its debt.

"The balance sheet concerns are likely to remain until commodity prices improve or net debt is reduced," UBS analysts said in a note. Anglo American Finance Director Rene Medori said the company was not planning to tap the market for cash as of now. But several people in the market felt otherwise.

"The downside risk to commodity prices is still significant, and further action, including an equity issuance, may still be necessary in 2016," said Jefferies analysts, whose new 275p price target was lower than others.

Anglo started paring back in 2013 but Cutifani said the company had to take "bolder action" to focus on assets that would deliver cash flow throughout the economic cycle. "How the market will respond will be a function of how quickly we can keep working the net debt down, which is an issue people are concerned about," Cutifani said. Anglo forecasts its net debt for the end of 2015 unchanged at $13 billion-$13.5 billion and plans to lower it to less than $10 billion in the medium term.

That debt would make it hard to sell assets to private equity investors, some of whom have expressed willingness to make mining acquisitions in the absence of competition from within the struggling sector.

[dlku] 10/12/2015 16:20

going to 200p

[rackers1] 10/12/2015 14:22

trend is your friend folks.
cant see any support yet.

[tpaulbeaumont] 10/12/2015 13:41

i think were gonna need a bigger news article loganair

[loganair] 09/12/2015 19:46

BHP Billiton, a Melbourne-based energy company, plans to spend $2.9 billion on oil and natural gas activities during its fiscal 2016, which is a 6% decline from its earlier estimates. Nonetheless, BHP maintained its previous production goals, noting strong momentum from Texas shale plays.

Regarding onshore US liquids production, BHP Billiton reported continued strong output in the Permian and the South Texas Eagle Ford. The company's latest US onshore budget calls for $1.4 billion in spending.

Andrew Mackenzie, BHP Billiton chief executive officer, said, "BHP Billiton remains on track to meet full-year production and cost guidance after a solid operational performance this year. In petroleum, we continue to reduce costs in both our onshore US and conventional businesses."

BHP Billiton expects to produce 237 million boe during fiscal 2016, a guidance that's unchanged from previous estimates. Its fiscal year ends June 30.

The company reported crude oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids production for the quarter ended Sept. 30 at 30.7 million boe.

Permian basin liquids production rose 103% for the September quarter compared with the same period a year ago, said an operational review that BPH Billiton released Oct. 21.

Liquids production for Black Hawk field in the Eagle Ford increased by 25% for the September quarter compared with the same period a year ago.

"We continue to expect annual volumes from these liquids-rich fields to be stable year on year," the operational review said.

[pbutterworth1] 09/12/2015 15:44

NY Boy - don't know whether you are in US or Eur but you called this rather well this morning... well done...

[ny boy] 09/12/2015 14:50

Nice reversal today, looks like a short term bottom is in.

[ny boy] 09/12/2015 11:56

I think so, this morning felt like some kind of short term capitulation and Santa could come early, markets should bounce from here, and to eliminate any risk, I moved stop up to break even and will let the trade ride.

There should be a bounce to around 850p

[pbutterworth1] 09/12/2015 11:49

when blt turns share price will go very fast

[ny boy] 09/12/2015 10:14

Started have a nimble on the long side 715p Bears should start closing some positions, it's a very over crowded trade, short term rally could be 20%+

[pbutterworth1] 09/12/2015 09:58

montyhedge 8 Dec'15 - 16:50 - 12084 of 12089 0 1

WJ
You have been conned by the value trap, no dividend, p.e. 30 are you mad

Errrr Monty where do get pe30 from ?? The current pe is 8.99. BLT is comparatively strong. Anyone who doesn't think this is a long term buy when its becoming obvious some key competition will capitulate and capacity (through closed mines) will shrink is nuts.

[rickmay] 08/12/2015 21:44

so they only worked that out when the share price is near £7 and set to plummet further lol. AVOID TARGET £2 to £3.

[loganair] 08/12/2015 19:46

Market focus on BHP Billiton's dividend is misguided, Citi says:

Given BHP Billiton's rate of 'cash-burn', investors were right to worry that 'something had to get cut' but markets were misguided in focusing on the dividend, what mattered most was minimising the damage to the balance sheet.

In the past, the miner had stressed the importance of cash-flow to pay for its main objectives: 1) spending SIB capex for safe operations; 2) maintaining a strong balance sheet; 3) progressive dividend policy; 4) growth capex and; 5) returning excess capital through capital management, Citi said.

With an expected rate of 'cash-burn' after capital expenditures and dividends of approximately $3bn a year, something did indeed have to give, the analysts said.

However, "market focus on dividend seems misguided in our view, as focus should really be about how much capex gets slashed to minimise balance sheet damage," Citi analysts Heath R jansen and Harsh Bardia said in a research note sent to clients.

[robertfaulkner] 08/12/2015 17:57

Thought I was so clever buying in at 879p in Nov, Ho Hum

[montyhedge] 08/12/2015 17:09

Capitulation coming spike down to 535p.

[rickmay] 08/12/2015 16:56

NASTY CHART...£2 to £3 target it's coming folks.