Bhp Dividends - BHP

Bhp Dividends - BHP

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Bhp Group Plc BHP London Ordinary Share GB00BH0P3Z91 ORD $0.50
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price High Price Low Price Open Price Close Price Last Trade
  -5.40 -0.31% 1,738.20 1,781.20 1,736.20 1,750.00 1,743.60 16:35:01
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Bhp BHP Dividends History

Announcement Date Type Currency Dividend Amount Period Start Period End Ex Date Record Date Payment Date Total Dividend Amount

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adrian j boris: Global mining companies are re-examining how they pay their chief executives, aiming to diminish the impact of external factors--like swings in commodity prices--that can mask a leader's true performance. At issue are big bonuses linked to total shareholder returns that can swell or shrink depending on how a company's share price performs. Miners--like companies in other sectors--say pay deals that rely too heavily on these bonuses can encourage risky behavior such as taking on big expansion projects or employing severe cost-cutting initiatives that, in some cases, take years to clean up. Instead, mining companies argue pay should be linked more closely with strategic targets, because that would better reflect what an individual executive can influence. A number of big miners including BHP Group Ltd., Rio Tinto PLC and South32 Ltd. are seeking to make changes to their executive pay plans, some starting from next year. "Mining companies' profitability, and therefore executive remuneration, is highly cyclical and strongly driven by market factors that are outside of their control," said Bill Hartnett, stewardship director at Aberdeen Standard Investments, which holds about 3.2% of BHP's London-listed stock for clients. BHP already has seen the pay for its CEO decrease in recent years. Marius Kloppers, who stepped down as CEO in 2013, earned as much as $16 million a year during a tenure that coincided with a China-led boom in prices for some of BHP's top commodities including coal and iron ore. His successor, Andrew Mackenzie, who took home a total of $3.5 million for fiscal 2019, has operated the company during a period of falling commodity prices as the world digests increasing amounts of supply from natural gas to iron ore. Messrs. Kloppers and Mackenzie declined to comment. Forecasting the cycle of commodity prices is a hazardous business. Bad weather sometimes disrupts supply, while demand for metals and minerals can rise or fall on political edicts, especially in China. Another big weakness in the current system: Building a mine or bringing an oil field into production can take longer than the time horizon for determining bonuses. That is especially the case when permits are needed from regulators or new infrastructure such as pipelines or railroads must be built. BHP's directors say linking more pay to a performance scorecard could be the answer. New stock awards would be held back for five years so that directors can be sure that management took decisions proven to create value. Those proposals were overwhelmingly accepted in final voting on the company's revamped policy at a meeting of Australian shareholders Thursday, with about 94% of holders of the U.K. and Australia listed shares agreeing to the changes. Had this policy been in place for Mr. Kloppers, he would have earned $19 million, or about 25%, less during the roughly five years through mid-2013, BHP said. Mr. Mackenzie would have earned only 2%, or $1 million, more than he has in the years since succeeding Mr. Kloppers. It might not be the last changes made by the company. Directors also plan next year to clarify and strengthen the link between performance on climate-change goals and pay, BHP said. "We are at the early stages of engagement with other major miners on their remuneration plans," said Mr. Hartnett, the fund manager, who supports BHP's proposal. Still, finding a balance that satisfies investors in different parts of the world isn't easy. Two years ago, Rio Tinto proposed replacing long-term performance share awards with restricted stock, while at the same time lowering the contribution of those long-run bonuses to the CEO's total pay packet. The proposal "was well-received in London. It was less well-received in Australia," Chairman Simon Thompson said at a shareholder meeting earlier this year. It was set aside. Rio Tinto says it is talking to investors and could try again, noting its remuneration policy must be reviewed every three years under U.K. law. "The board remains of the view that restricted stock has considerable merits in a long-term cyclical industry such as mining," the miner said. South32, which is also reviewing its pay structure, said it is hard to strike a balance that ensures it is still attractive to executives who might otherwise give the base-metals miner a pass. South32 Chief Executive Graham Kerr this year relinquished 4.7 million Australian dollars (US$3.2 million) in long-term bonuses that were part of a deal agreed when BHP spun off the business. The bonus in big part reflected a more than 40% rise in South32's share price since it began trading in 2015. "I don't think any of us expected to see South32 perform as strongly as it did over the first four years of its long-term plan," South32 Chairman Karen Wood said at an investor meeting recently. "We all felt--and by all, I'm including Graham very much in this assessment--that it would deliver an amount of money that we thought was not appropriate." Mr. Kerr was unavailable for comment. Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at and Robb M. Stewart at (END) Dow Jones Newswires November 07, 2019 08:14 ET (13:14 GMT)
the grumpy old men: MOTELY FOOL Are Fortescue, Rio Tinto and BHP shares a buy for their dividends? Lina Lim | October 3, 2019 1:23pm | More on: BHP FMG RIO ASX iron ore miners ASX 200 iron ore miners BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Mining Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) have all staged significant share price recoveries after iron ore supply woes throughout August. But are they a buy for their dividends, on current prices? What’s the outlook for iron ore? The iron ore spot price currently sits at around US$90 per tonne, while Chinese iron ore futures soared by more than 2% on Wednesday. I believe the market has largely internalised the news that the world’s largest iron ore miner, Vale SA, is returning to form after its tailings dam disaster earlier this year. The Brazilian miner maintained its 2019 iron ore and pellet sale guidance of 207–322 million tons, with sales expected to be around the mid-point of that range. With that in mind, the Australian government sees iron ore prices in 2019 averaging around $80 per tonne FOB, reflecting the full effect of supply disruptions and firm demand from China. However, it also expects the price to gradually decline to average $57 by 2021, as the seaborne market gradually returns to balance. In terms of global economies, China has maintained a steady level of steel production with its central bank announcing that it will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and increase the strength of counter-cyclical measures. This should buoy the iron ore spot price and steel production levels. On the flip side, US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) signalled that manufacturing business activity was contracting at a stronger pace than expected. This reflects lower consumer demand and a contraction in new export orders. In the short term, the iron ore spot price could maintain the US$80–90 mark as the Australian dollar continues to pivot lower on the back of lower interest rates. This could expose investors to both capital upside and strong dividends. In terms of dividend yield, Fortescue pays a whopping 14% gross yield thanks to its 195% increase in underlying net profit and 266% increase in earnings per share in FY19. This represents a 78% dividend payout ratio – a delicate position where there isn’t too much space to increase dividends, while a lower iron price could potentially lower dividends in the future. BHP and Rio Tinto, on the other hand, pay a 7.8% and 8.7% gross yield, respectively. Foolish takeaway Current market conditions are volatile as lower interest rates drive capital inflows into equity markets, while global economic is showing signs of sluggish growth. A short-term opportunity may exist for investors as iron ore prices remain steady and miners continue to reap the benefits of a higher spot price and increased steel production from China. However, investors should be wary of the medium–long term outlook and the implications that may have on dividends.
the grumpy old men: lol in the meantime above think postive and be thankful for the divi
maywillow: SYDNEY--BHP Group Ltd. (BHP.AU) proposed changes to the way it pays Chief Executive Andrew Mackenzie that it said will lessen spikes in remuneration and better reward sustained good performance. Under the new structure, which is expected to be voted on by investors at annual shareholder meetings in the U.K. and Australia later in 2019, BHP would cut Mr. Mackenzie's long-term incentive plan in relation to his base salary and introduce five-year deferred shares to his cash and deferred plan. Those changes would reduce the maximum annual package of pay and bonuses by 12%, the world's biggest miner by market value said. The existing long term incentive plan, or LTIP, "rewards volatility in performance rather than sustained outperformance, which is an aspiration for BHP," the miner said in its annual report. Miners have come under increased scrutiny for plowing billions of dollars into mega projects or deals at the peak of cycles that years later sparked massive write downs as commodity markets cooled. "There are material time lags between key long-dated decisions and their LTIP outcomes, leading to a discrepancy between participants who are the decision-makers, and those who eventually experience the positive or negative remuneration outcomes," the company said. Other changes planned include a cut to Mr. Mackenzie's pension contribution rate and the introduction of a two-year post-retirement shareholding requirement. Mr. Mackenzie earned US$3.5 million for fiscal 2019, down from US$4.7 million the year prior and below a target of US$7.7 million, said the company. The minimum available package was US$2.2 million and maximum was US$13.1 million. His annual payout was weakened by a train derailment in western Australia late in 2018, where four locomotives and 268 loaded wagons ran loose for more than 50 miles without a driver before being forcibly derailed. BHP also faced operational problems at a number of mines and processing facilities, and the death of a worker at a coal mine in Queensland in December. "From a performance perspective, while shareholders have benefited during fiscal 2019 from positive share price growth and significant shareholder returns, the year was a challenging one operationally for BHP, and the remuneration outcomes for fiscal 2019 for our senior executives reflect this," the company said. BHP said Mr. Mackenzie's base salary will remain unchanged in fiscal 2020, at US$1.7 million. There will also be no change to annual fees for Chairman Ken MacKenzie or nonexecutive directors. Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at -0- (END) Dow Jones Newswires September 16, 2019 22:01 ET (02:01 GMT)
ariane: Sharecast Broker tips: RBS, Anglo American, BHP, Kainos rbs gogarburn building Analysts at Berenberg lowered their target price on retail bank The Royal Bank of Scotland from 340p to 280p on Wednesday after management conceded that the lender was now unlikely to achieve a 12.0% return on tangible equity by 2020. Berenberg said that despite a challenging environment, RBS' strategy was delivering "profitable growth, meaningful cost reductions and substantial capital returns". But the German bank pointed out that for many investors, this was simply "not enough". In particular, Berenberg said many were struggling to look beyond the current margin pressure, which had prompted RBS' board to accept that it would most likely be unable to meet its return on tangible equity targets in time. The broker's analysts reduced their full-year 2020-21 EPS estimates for RBS by approximately 6%, mainly driven by lower net interest margins, compounded by lower expected buybacks. Berenberg's 2019 estimates, on the other hand, did rise modestly, but only reflecting non-operational effects. "Following these adjustments, we believe consensus EPS estimates remain 4-6% too low," said Berenberg. However, while disappointing, Berenberg believed the share price reaction to the news had been "too severe", particularly considering RBS' double-digit dividend yield. "We believe RBS is able to deliver a double-digit dividend yield, alongside share buybacks of circa £3.0bn over three years. However, these prospective returns are being ignored," they wrote. Berenberg, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the group despite the target price cut, highlighted that RBS' efforts to bolster returns and offset revenue headwinds saw operating costs fall by roughly £170.0m during the first half. Guidance from the lender that full-year restructuring costs should be towards the lower end of the previously guided range of £1.2bn-1.5bn provided the analysts with further comfort. Deutsche Bank revised its ratings on London-listed miners on Wednesday as it said stocks were due a rebound after the summer selloff. "Like most cyclical sectors, mining corrected sharply through the summer months," it said. "Risk appetite has collapsed and global growth fears are back at the forefront. While uncertainty and macro risks are high, we see scope for a tactical rebound on a six-month horizon." DB added that iron ore prices have reset to more realistic levels and valuations are now someway below its mid-cycle targets. "Our mining valuation composite is now sending a clear buy signal; buying at current valuation levels has yielded an average six-month return of 23% and the sector has moved up in relative and absolute terms on every occasion," it said. "The pervasive fear in the market is that we enter a 2015 type slowdown which saw negative China and global steel demand for several quarters. While we expect a deceleration in China steel demand in the year ahead (2% in 2020 from 5% in 2019) we think a 2015 style slowdown is an overly pessimistic scenario." The bank said Anglo American remains its top pick. "The business is well diversified, valuation compelling and, at the current share price, the market is getting the 30% growth by 2022E almost for free." Deutsche upped its stance on BHP Group to 'hold' from 'sell', cutting the price target to 1,750p from 1,900p following the recent share price correction. "Our view that BHP lacks structural growth drivers is unchanged, however, capital discipline is holding and dividend levels should remain robust through the cycle," it said.
loganair: BHP Group - An FTSE 100 share that seems to be currently undervalued is diversified miner BHP Group (LSE: BHP). The company faces an uncertain future, with the potential for a slowdown in the rate of global GDP growth expected to cause investors to become less positive about its financial outlook. Despite this, BHP could offer long-term growth potential. Its valuation suggests investors may have factored in the risks faced by the business, with its P/E ratio of 9.6 relatively low compared to its historic range. Unlike some of its mining sector peers, the company offers a significant amount of diversity in terms of its geographic exposure and the commodities which it mines. While this may not prevent a share price fall should the global economic outlook deteriorate, it could help the stock to outperform many of its industry peers. With a dividend yield of 7.9% that’s covered 1.3 times by profit, the mining company’s income investing prospects appear to be attractive. While less robust than other high-yielding FTSE 100 shares, the risk/reward ratio offered by the business may mean it has the capacity to produce high returns over the long run, helping you to retire early.
waldron: FORBES Gold Is Hot But Nickel Is Hotter As Demand Grows For Batteries In Electric Vehicles Tim Treadgold Tim Treadgold Contributor Asia Gold is hot but there's another metal which is hotter, nickel. Up 30% over the past two months nickel has delivered more than double the performance of gold which is up 13% over the same time, and the gap could get a lot wider as the supply of nickel stagnates and demand accelerates. The driving force behind the recent awakening of gold is well-understood and can be summed up as a flight to safety as the China v U.S. trade war slows global growth and values of conventional, or fiat currencies, are debased by governments resorting to quantitative easing or other forms of creating money. Bags filled with nickel briquette and nickel powder sit in a warehouse at the BHP Group Ltd. Kwinana Nickel Refinery in Kwinana, Western Australia, Australia, on Friday, Aug. 2, 2019. The world's biggest miners, including BHP Group and Glencore Plc, are finally firm believers in the electric vehicle battery revolution -- what they don't agree on is which metals will deliver the best long-term exposure to the developing global market. Photographer: Philip Gostelow/Bloomberg Bags filled with nickel briquette and nickel powder sit in a warehouse at the BHP Group Ltd. Kwinana Nickel Refinery in Kwinana, Western Australia, Australia, on Friday, Aug. 2, 2019. The world's biggest miners, including BHP Group and Glencore Plc, are finally firm believers in the electric vehicle battery revolution -- what they don't agree on is which metals will deliver the best long-term exposure to the developing global market. Photographer: Philip Gostelow/Bloomberg © 2019 Bloomberg Finance LP Nickel's drivers are different and far easier to understand and boil down to a simple case of supply exceeding demand which, in past nickel booms, was essentially a case of mines failing to keep up with the requirements of steel mills making stainless steel, a material which has traditional consumed close to 80% of the world's nickel. Demand Growing For Nickel In Batteries Stainless steel remains the primary market for nickel but there's a faster-growing market which until a few years ago was insignificant; lithium-ion batteries. YOU MAY ALSO LIKE UNICEF USA BrandVoice Ebola Crisis In DRC Declared A Public Health Emergency Civic Nation BrandVoice Michelle Obama’s Message To Students At Our Beating The Odds Summit: You Belong Here SoftServe BrandVoice AI In Healthcare: Fact Or Fiction? A standard source of power in small appliances such as cell-phones with their nickel-cadmium (NiCd) batteries, or nickel-metal hydride (NiMh) rechargeable batteries the big game today is in the battery packs which power electric cars such as the Tesla, Prius and Leaf. From being a metal easily described as a one-trick pony thanks to its dominant end-use in stainless steel, nickel has suddenly become a two-trick pony, and if electric cars take off as predicted then a shortage in future years is possible. What caused nickel to run from around $5.40 a pound two months ago to $7.09/lb at the end of last week (and a high on Friday of $7.22/lb) was a combination of strong demand from Chinese stainless steel mills and speculation that a major source of the metal could be cut off sooner than expected. The source under threat is unprocessed nickel ore from Indonesia which is shipped to China for use in steel mills as a material called Nickel Pig Iron (NPI). Indonesia, and other countries which produce NPI dislike the material because it does not require any value-adding in the home market. Previous bans on NPI have crimped the industry only for it to return. But the next ban is expected to be permanent and while Indonesia has said it will not be applied until the year 2022 it could happen sooner, just as battery makers seek supplies of nickel to meet electric-car demand. A crystalliser, used in the process of manufacturing nickel sulphate hexahydrate, stands at the BHP Group Ltd. Kwinana Nickel Refinery in Kwinana, Western Australia, Australia. Photographer: Philip Gostelow/Bloomberg A crystalliser, used in the process of manufacturing nickel sulphate hexahydrate, stands at the BHP Group Ltd. Kwinana Nickel Refinery in Kwinana, Western Australia, Australia. Photographer: Philip Gostelow/Bloomberg © 2019 Bloomberg Finance LP ANZ, an Australian bank, warned two weeks ago that falling stockpiles of nickel metal were a warning of a squeeze developing. Stockpiles in warehouses managed by the London Metal Exchange (LME) have been falling for the past four years, with an accelerating decline over the past two, a time when reserve inventories dropped by 43% from around 250,000 tons to 142,000t. "Nickel inventories have declined steadily since early 2018, as the persistent market deficit takes a toll," ANZ said. "Some analysts suggest stockpiling by electric vehicle manufacturers is behind the depletion. Whether this is the case or not, we see the tight market meaning further inventory drawdowns are likely. Talk Of Panic Buying "Current LME stockpiles would meet less than two months of supply --- so panic buying is a likely outcome." It is highly unusual for a bank like ANZ to use an expression as emotive as panic buying but it was used largely because of concern that speculators had become active in the nickel market ahead of Indonesia's reintroduction of a ban on NPI. Pure-play Australian nickel mining companies are enjoying sharp share price rises as the nickel price moves up. Western Areas has risen by 25% over the past month and Mincor, which has just re-signed a supply agreement with BHP, a major producer of the nickel sulphate which battery makers prefer, is up 28%. If there is a squeeze developing on nickel supplies as a major new market develops for the metal the price could go much higher than its current $7.09/lb. Back in 2011 when a supply shortage developed the nickel price hit $22/lb, before falling rapidly as steel mills found substitutes for nickel in their stainless steel, including manganese. No-one is talking about a nickel boom as powerful as that in 2011 but nickel has a long track record of extreme moves, up and down. Tim Treadgold Tim Treadgold I studied geology in the 1960s and worked for a small mining company before getting a start in journalism during the 1969 nickel boom.
waldron: MOTELYFOOL Iron ore miners tumble: Are Fortescue, BHP and Rio Tinto a buy? Lina Lim | July 29, 2019 | More on: BHP FMG RIO Dominoes falling in a row The iron ore spot price has stabilised around the US$120 per tonne mark while the S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX: XJO) index has just passed 6,800. This is in stark contrast to the ASX iron ore miners, which have struggled on the news that the world’s largest miner, Vale SA, would resume production at its Vargem Grade complex. This news has resulted in the following price movements in the past week: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price down 1.07% to $40.56 (at time of writing) Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price down 4.6% to $8.30 (at time of writing) Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price down 4% to $98.26 (at time of writing) Is this a buy opportunity? The iron ore bull run is perhaps at its cross roads as Vale SA slowly returns to form. The Brazilian miner said that the move to Vargem Grade will add approximately 5 million tonnes to annual production. We’ve known for a long time that Vale has been awaiting supreme court approval for the resumption of production at several mine sites. Last month, Vale SA received court approval to enable the full resumption of wet processing operations at its Brucutu mine. Brucutu has an annual production capacity of approximately 30 metric tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of iron ore. This represents 8% of Value’s annual output. Fast forward to today, and the Vargem decision will enable the partial resumption of dry processing operations, which will total approximately 5 Mt of additional production in 2019. If we piece together the initial statistics of the Vale disaster that resulted in a loss of approximately 90 million tonnes of an annualised supply of around 1.7 billion tonnes, it appears as though the market is very slowly coming back to equilibrium. The plateauing bullish fundamentals overshadow Fortescue’s June 2019 quarterly production report, which highlight a 22% rise in total ore shipped while citing sustained strong demand from customers. Foolish takeaway I believe the recent falls in BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue share price are, to some degree, a market overreaction. However, I am going to make the bold call that the top is in for ASX iron ore miners. On one hand, demand side fundamentals remain robust and the supply–demand imbalance will continue to persist in the short term. But it is evident that the market is slowly creeping back to an equilibrium and I find it highly unlikely that ASX iron ore miners will break out their old highs.
the grumpy old men: Opinion Iron ore price is defying gravity, and nothing is bringing it down to earth Elizabeth Knight Business columnist June 20, 2019 — 12.00am The price of iron ore continues to defy both gravity and the warnings from a plethora of technical financial analysis that the metal price is in bubble territory. But tell that to the thousands of investors with shares in BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue. For them, watching the iron ore price hit new highs is a bonanza. BHP shareholders haven’t seen the stock at these levels since 2011, Rio’s share price hasn’t closed this high since 2008. At Wednesday's close BHP was up 2 per cent to $40.98 and Rio was up 1.94 per cent $105.71. The iron ore price is in bubble territory. The iron ore price is in bubble territory.Credit:Bloomberg And the pick of the bunch from a share price performance perspective, Fortescue was up more than 3 per cent on Wednesday to $8.78 and is at a near 11-year high. While riding the iron ore rise has been wonderful for shareholders, buying into this run seems like a pretty gutsy play requiring (let’s say) nerves of steel. The iron ore price can be volatile. Having said that it has been trending higher for most of this calendar year and on Wednesday rocketed up 3.7 per cent to $US112.28 - sending iron ore stocks off on a tear again. Related Article Water and mud from the failed tailings dam at Brumadinho in Brazil. The collapse of another Vale tailings dam and the impact of Cyclone Veronica on the Pilbara miners have removed 100 million tonnes of iron ore from the market this year. Iron ore Iron ore's darkish clouds create silver lining for Pilbara miners And here's why. If the current spot prices for iron ore remain at these levels Rio and BHP would produce a 50 per cent improvement in earnings per share in fiscal year 2020, while Fortescue’s earnings could be up by 170 per cent according to Macquarie’s calculations. Such an outcome would deliver a deluge of dividends. In recent years these major iron ore companies have demonstrated a more conservative approach to capital expenditure and a way more generous approach to rewarding shareholders with dividends and buybacks. The robust share price performances are also being fed by a positive broader sentiment on the sharemarket. There are two factors at play here. The first is increasing hope that the US central bank will take a more aggressive position on lowering interest rates. The second - and much less reliable - reason for market optimism is being generated by the slightly toned-down rhetoric in Donald Trump’s latest trade war tweets. Both these positives could prove fragile. However, the forces that are specific to iron ore are based on supply and demand fundamentals which are proving tenacious. Many had forecast that the disruption in iron ore supply that began with the Vale tailings dam disaster in Brazil in January would be on its way towards a resolution. It isn’t. Courts and regulators have taken control and the timing of the restoration of supply seems no closer - or at least no clearer. At the same time pressure on all mining companies to reassess the safety of their tailings dams is intensifying. Related Article Autonomous trucks at Rio Tinto's West Angelas mine. Mining Falling iron ore stockpiles in China latest fuel for local mining boom Major investors, led by the Church of England have banded together to form what they have called the Mining and Tailings Safety Initiative. This week it released a name and shame list of companies that had not responded to its request to provide details of their tailings facilities. This investor group accounts for assets under management of $US12 trillion ($17 trillion). BHP and Rio have produced audits of their tailings dams over the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall during the current quarter in parts of Vale’s operations has only added to the supply disruptions. Citi Research's New York-based analysts said this week’s iron ore rally came on the back of an increasing likelihood that Rio may not make some contract deliveries of higher grade ore for July and August. But while supply is constrained, the demand side of the equation is not easing which is leading to continued depletion of stockpiles in China. In a note to investors Macquarie said, "Chinese port stocks, one of the most watched indicators in the iron ore market, have fallen further to under 110 million tonnes, indicating a 25 million tonnes drawdown since the end of April 2019. It further noted that, "the falling inventories at ports suggest consumption continues to outpace seaborne arrivals". The size and frequency of Chinese government stimulus packages is playing a big part in the continuing high demand for steel - whose major ingredient is iron ore. And just how the latest round of China-US trade talks play out will also be a major factor determining China stimulus. Few, if anyone, is predicting that iron ore prices will remain at these elevated levels for another year but right now the forces that are pushing the price higher appear stronger than those that could bring it back to earth. Elizabeth Knight comments on companies, markets and the economy.
loganair: BHP - Growth, long-term horizon, Deep Value an Australian Commodity Company with a Secure 5.5% Yield: BHP is an enormous commodities company with an enormous portfolio of assets. The company's asset portfolio is spread across materials essential to modern society. BHP has incredibly strong cash flow and has worked to maintain low debt levels and a respectable dividend yield throughout the downcycle. BHP's cash flow potential going forward makes the company a great investment, one that I highly recommend. BHP Group is an enormous commodity company with a market cap of more than $100 billion. The company operates in the copper, iron, coal, potash, oil, and gas industries. The company's operation in a variety of commodities means it is subject to cycles. Through this article, we'll see that the company's focused improvements of its financial position combined with its impressive asset portfolio make it a company I recommend investing in at this time. BHP Growing Asset Portfolio: BHP has a growing asset portfolio that'll provide the company with more secure earnings going forward. BHP's four segments have continued to reach record production, showing their incredible potential. The company has been focused on cutting cost as possible and has continued to earn incredibly strong EBITDA. The company's total EBITDA from its four assets is anticipated to reach $23.1 billion annually. That's incredibly strong for a company with a market cap of more than $100 billion and shows the company's earning potential. More so, the company's costs for all of its major earners are well below the current prices of the commodities. For example, the company's $10.06/barrel petroleum cost is less than 25% of the current crude oil prices. That shows the company's impressive cash flow potential from its assets and how profitable they are, even in a commodity downcycle. BHP Capital Spending: To grow its investment assets, the company plans to invest close to $10 billion annually. The company's impressive capital expenditure is well above its 2017 capital production and almost equivalent to the company's 2016 capital expenditure. That impressive capital expenditure is incredibly affordable and is equivalent to almost 10% of the company's market cap. That means that these impressive investments should help the company's cash flow to grow. BHP Project Cost Cutting: Looking at the company's Australia operations, the company managed to have record production at 7 mines while decreasing costs by 2%. The company's Queensland costs are well below current coal prices, allowing the company to earn cash flow. However, the company does anticipate near term 2019 Queensland coal prices as higher, due to higher strip ratios. The Olympic Dam mine, which focuses primarily on copper and uranium, has seen its ore increase. The company anticipates Olympic Dam production to increase going forward. The company's South Flank asset is also targeting first ore in 2021, which will help to increase the grade and lump proportion. These things should help the company's cash flow to increase. BHP Major Project Delivery: In the Americas, the company's Escondida mine, one of the largest copper mines in the world, has seen copper costs down 15% with record throughput. The company's volumes are expected to average 1.2 Mtpa to 2025, with unit costs at <$1.15 per pound. The company has maintained incredibly strong costs despite a decreasing grade. Going forward, the company anticipates production to continue at the current levels, which should mean continued revenue and earnings. That's incredible production in spite of the fact that the grade of the ore has declined some. The company also has desalination water secured, which will help to maintain stability and support costs. Overall, this asset will continue to provide billions of long-term cash flow BHP. BHP Oil Portfolio: The company's petroleum assets are another important aspect of its earnings. The company has 1 billion barrels in reserves replaced over the last decade, with finding & development costs well below its peers. The company's low finding and development costs of just over $20 will mean significant cash flow potential for the company. The company's current investments are profitable at less than $50/barrel. The company's pipeline of 8 projects has achieved average returns of >25%, which is an amazing return for shareholders. The company has continued to increase performance and improving its exploration and success rates. Low cost of lifting, with impressive assets, means strong earnings going forward. As we will see going forward, BHP's portfolio of assets and growth potential make it a strong investment. BHP Financial Position: BHP has an incredibly strong financial position, a financial position that it has been focused on improving. As a company at the bottom of a cyclical operation, in the immediate term, its finances are everything. BHP Financial Portfolio: BHP has an incredibly strong balance sheet that provides it with continued flexibility throughout the cycle. The company's balance sheet has been tested under a wide variety of price scenarios, and this shows that the company has a buffer for price movements. The company is targeting a net debt in the range of $10-15 billion. During a downcycle, the company expects net debt increasing to the upper end of the region, before it drops back down. This shows the company's financial strength; the company is keeping its debt in a downcycle low. The company has strong liquidity, with an undrawn $6 billion revolving credit facility, which shows the company's financial ability. BHP Shareholder Rewards: Going forward, the company plans to reward shareholders while maintaining flexibility. The company has focused on a minimum 50% payout ratio dividend, while providing additional rewards to shareholders. That dividend is currently almost 6%, which shows the company's strength. The company has paid out $9 billion over the minimum dividend since early-2016. The company was forced to cut its dividend in 2016 due to a tough commodity environment. The company's 50% payout ratio has been still below the progressive dividend, but the company's special dividend has grown to above the dividend while maintaining the company's strength. BHP Debt Balances: Looking at BHP's debt balances, the company has a very balanced debt maturity portfolio. The company has roughly $2 billion in annual debt due from now until 2026. Given the company's annual earnings of roughly $10 billion per year, that means that the company can comfortably afford the debt going forward. This helps to show the company's incredibly impressive financial strength. BHP Maximizing Returns: Overall, these strong financials, combined with the company's new dividend policy, will allow the company to have strong shareholder returns. The company has reduced its debt by $15 billion in two years, reducing net debt to a $10-15 billion range. The company has a new minimum 50% payout ratio dividend we discussed above which'll reward shareholders well. More so, the company plans to limit capital spending, with less than $8 billion in capital and exploration expenditure per annum until FY 2020. The company anticipates ROCE back to ~20% by FY 2022. That shows the company's improving financial profile, which will allow the company to continue to maximize in its investment while having strong returns. BHP's Challenges: Like all other major companies, BHP faces challenges. BHP's single greatest challenge is that the company is in a cyclical sector. Coal, copper, potash, and iron are all commodities that often deal with a cyclical pricing setup. As a result, the company's cash flow can vary heavily from year to year. Despite investors knowing the business is cyclical, the company's stock price varies with these cycles too. That means that I don't recommend this stock for investors with 1,2, or even 5-year timelines. Rather I recommend it for investors who have closer to a 10-year timeline. Still, in the event of a drawn-out commodity crisis, the company's stock price, cash flow, and even dividends could be punished heavily. As a result, as an investor, this is a risk you need to be open too. No one will know when the next commodity crash will happen, but there almost certainly will be one. BHP Valuation: Trying to put a direct price valuation on BHP is difficult, due to the fluctuation in commodity prices. However, I'll try and provide some guidance. BHP's net operating cash flow, which the company uses to retire debt and pay its dividend, is the single most important metric I recommend paying attention too. In 2016, the company's net operating cash flow dropped to a mere $14.6 billion in the commodities crash. However, it has since rebounded. Still, these levels are 20% below 2014 when the crash started. However, BHP dividend payment is paying similar to what it was before the crash. As the company's cash flow recovers, which I anticipate to be over the next few years, as commodity prices stabilize and costs are cut, its share price should recover further. BHP is currently trading at 30% below its mid-2014 highs, while cash flow has dropped 14%. As a result, I think the company is roughly 16% undervalued at this time. As its cash flow increases, I expect the company's share price to increase in turn. This also means as a catalyst for investors to pay attention to, pay attention to the company's cash flow as it reports it in 2019. Should the company miss cash flow numbers drastically, if it's commodity price related, that's a risk, but if it's due to poor management, I'd recommend selling your shares. However, even right now, when you invest, you're getting a growing commodities company, with strong cash flow, and a dividend yield of more than 5%. That company is trading at 16% below what it should be based off of its cash flow. Conclusion: BHP has low cost assets, which means continued cash flow during the downcycle. As commodity prices recover, the company's stock price should return to mid-2014 highs, which will provide investors with strong returns. At the same time, the company's financials are set up for a market crash, and the company continues to pay investors a 5.5% dividend. These things together make the company a rewarding and strong investment decision. I recommend investing in BHP at this time.
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