Betfair Grp Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 26/11/2010 14:12

Given the small amount of stock around, it's probably volatility ahead of FTSE 250 entry in December.

[micmac303] 26/11/2010 11:45

I don't see any news explaining why the share price should be dropping?

Any one else able to enlighten?

[micmac303] 26/11/2010 11:44

WTF is going on today?

[wjccghcc] 20/11/2010 12:15

Australia has always been a nasty battle for them. Luckily it's a 50% jv and not much value is assigned to it. Also, the wager tax only affects horse/harness racing and doesn't impact things like football or cricket.

It tends to rear its head where they're up against a state monopoly (France, Australia). The US/UK don't have that so it's a bit disingenious of EVO to raise it as a harbinger of regulatory risk elsewhere.

[bonosr7] 19/11/2010 12:31

EVO TAKE – Betfair's appeal against a wager-based levy on horseracing in
New South Wales (NSW), Australia, has been rejected by the Australian
Federal Court. This does not change our forecasts (the Court outcome
retains the status quo), but it provides solid support for our Sell case.
DETAILS – Betfair initiated proceedings against Racing NSW in 2008,
stating that the levy of 1.5% on horseracing wagers discriminated against
Betfair that takes a commission on customers' winnings rather than a
gross margin generated by bookmakers. The failure of Betfair's appeal
highlights (1) regulatory risk for Betfair (regulators are not necessarily
keen for Betfair to succeed in taking local market share) and (2) Betfair's
model does not work if wager taxes are applied (rather than profitsbased).
The Federal Court explicitly suggested that it did not care that
Betfair's model was different to the bookmakers. If other countries (eg
France that has a wager tax) or Australian States follow this example, we
believe Betfair could not operate profitably in these territories.
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION – There is no change to our
forecasts, but we retain our Sell recommendation and 1140p price target.

[yopooni] 18/11/2010 18:52

Rumour has it they've got v. heavily hit on a amateurish casino promotion.
Staggering incompetence.

[bonio10000] 18/11/2010 08:41

The US will be forced to open up to raise revenue.

It is no surprise that California is caving in and they have a huge deficit to plug.

You only have to look at the fact they were voting on legalising weed to see the lengths they will go to in order to raise the tax take.

[wjccghcc] 11/11/2010 08:32

Scotches - that's true of any form of gambling.

e-venturer. California has already passed a law allowing exchanges for horse racing from next year. New Jersey has a similar law under discussion.

[scotches] 11/11/2010 01:15

This article is worth a read. What happens when all the mugs have done their cash?





Betfair, in this analysis, is a chicken house inhabited by several million birds and a handful of foxes. Some chickens are better than others at avoiding their inevitable fate – some indeed simply offer themselves up for slaughter – but no matter how much you run or hide, Mr Fox will get round to you in the end. Then, one day, there are no more chickens, and the foxes eat each other, or starve.

Some punters simply don't care. Like Foghorn Leghorn after an encounter with a lawnmower, they retrieve their tail-feathers, puff out their chest and return to the unequal struggle. And of course, there will always be a few new chickens that enjoy the warmth and free food, and believe – unwisely – that the house is so big and the foxes so few that their chances are pretty good.

[the failed investor] 10/11/2010 23:36

The richest races in the World are in the middle east these days, no on course bookies allowed, where do they go for liquidity?

The likes of BET365 offer GP but try putting on a decent bet with them and they'll never give you the advertised odds.

Stan James caved in last week and binned GP, matter of time before others follow, they're running out of options, Betfair will grow hugely from this, they tried to compete but couldn't.

I don't buy shares these days but would buy here If I wanted a safe investment.

[e-venturer] 10/11/2010 23:27

I still wouldn't take the US opening up to betfair given the current financial and political climate.

[wjccghcc] 10/11/2010 21:01

Several reasons including:

1. About 25% of the company is with the original shareholders who invested in 2000-2002 and they want liquidity for their investment.

2. They want the flexibility to raise funds to make acquisitions if need be.

3. As the USA opens up, being a private company has it's disadvantages. e.g in order to be licensed in Nevada, every shareholder in a private company needs to be approved by the authorities. For a public company this is unnecessary.

[zapa] 10/11/2010 16:14

why go public then???

[happyinvestor411] 10/11/2010 16:04

aldric

Realistically Betfair have no strong competition and are years ahead in terms of software and technology.

Can you see a new company breaking Betfairs monopoly of this particular consumer service?

I cant see anyone being able to compete with them at least for the next 5-10years.

[midasmonkey] 09/11/2010 16:42

Strong move up today to break the down trend, could be time to buy some more.

[aldric] 09/11/2010 16:34

How long till betfair has competition?
-----------
They do have competition but they have spent millions are still nowhere near as successful as betfair... ie Betdaq and WBX.

The problem for any competition is that betfair have the liquitidy and they can't match it no matter how much money they spend.

[happyinvestor411] 09/11/2010 12:36

outsourcer

I have bet365, ladbrokes and betfair. Too be honest i rarely use Betfair, i only use it to lay off on horses but i never back them through Betfair.
My only concern with this particular stock is that it cant expand further, yeah it can move into other countries but gambling laws around the world are alot tigghter and harder to break into than in the UK. How long till betfair has competition? Definatley an exciting company to follow, definatley worth having a punt.

[outsourcer] 09/11/2010 08:42

the failed investor - I think the worldwide expansion is a long way off, if you take the US for example, if you try to log into Betfair over there you cant as the US has its strange gambling laws (look at the poker problem for a start. I dont know whether the same applies to the Asian market, which I would say would be probably the next market to crack as they are crazy gamblers

[outsourcer] 09/11/2010 08:39

happyinvestor411, you are correct there is no liability, I would guess there major expenditure is in the technology ensuring the platform is able to run on all the various devices available today and also that is kept fresh and easy to use.
I would agree with the expansion problem, as a gambler I have a Betfair account but also a Bet365 account which I use more often as they offer guaranteed odds on every race. I tend to use Betfair more for long term bets such as football division winners, X Factor winner, as I know that I can easily lay it off early if necessary.
I also think as someone has mentioned before the problems around the race refixing and trainers laying their own horses would most likely concern the smaller punter as they aren't getting a level playing field.

[the failed investor] 08/11/2010 18:26

They can't lose, that's the beauty of the business model.

Expansion will be at the expense of the high street bookie, as more and more people get computers, smart phones, tablets etc the more people will realise they can get better odds through Betfair. They'll also expand Worldwide.

The company is still in the start up phase of the business imo, they've done the hard bit.

[happyinvestor411] 08/11/2010 17:58

outsourcer

Yes i do understand that but my point is, where is BF liability?

Punter v punter betting surley means betfair cant lose!

What effect this has on the share price is very hard to predict because nothing like this has ever come to the market before.

I have a small investment in BF more curious than anything else because i cant see the company flopping but i also struggle to see how the company can expand? Any ideas?

[outsourcer] 08/11/2010 17:19

happyinvestor411 - betfair dont get the stake, the stake goes to the individual who laid the bet, Betfair the get a % of the layers winnings

[midasmonkey] 08/11/2010 12:55

I'm surprised they made such a positive start to trading given the downward trend. I think there will be a lot of resistance around the 13 mark.

[montyhedge] 08/11/2010 12:03

Can't really see how Betfair worth more than £12 can a bull tell me?