Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 26/3/2009 11:37

'I'm having a very good crisis,' says Soros as hedge fund managers make billions off recession

By Mail Foreign Service
Last updated at 5:13 PM on 25th March 2009
Comments (14)
Add to My Stories


George Soros said the current economic crisis has been the culmination of his life's work

A hedge fund manager who predicted the global credit crunch has said the financial crisis has been 'stimulating' and the culmination of his life's work.

George Soros, who predicted the global financial crisis twice before, was one of the few people to anticipate and prepare for the current economic collapse.

Mr Soros said his prediction meant he was better able to brace his Quantum investment fund against the gloabal storm.

But other investors failed to take notice of his prediction and his decision to come out of retirement in 2007 to manage the fund made him $US2.9 billion.

And while the financial crisis continued to deepen across the globe, the 78-year-old still managed to make $1.1 billion last year.

'It is, in a way, the culminating point of my life’s work,' he told national newspaper The Australian.

[traderabc] 24/3/2009 12:26

Jim Rogers on Malaysian Radio
Part 1 of 2




Part 2

[traderabc] 24/3/2009 11:33

It is Better that AIG goes Bankrupt then the Whole US?

It is better that AIG goes bankrupt and we have a horrible two or three years than that the whole U.S. goes bankrupt.

The Japanese tried bailouts and it didn’t work. They propped up bankrupt companies like AIG and business activity collapsed. They called them “zombie” companies. AIG is a bankrupt zombie company.

[gcom2] 24/3/2009 07:23

Jim Rogers says the world is ending soon so it must be

[dutch alert] 24/3/2009 00:05

I am reading a fascinating book from Georg Friedman. The founder and CEO from Stratfor (the so-called shadow CIA) It is called the next 100 years. Based upon the analyse of the last 100 years. His point - we are wrong. US will again emerge as the major force in the next 100 years. US would stay the power to dominate the Atlantic and the Pacific. None of the other powers would be capable to grow beyond their regional importance. He acknowledge their will be a lot of problems to solve but he disputed that this financial crisis would be the end of the US. He arguess finance would be solved in time an there is more power is build on.
If you agree or not it is a good read.

[traderabc] 23/3/2009 20:09

Jim Rogers the Dollar is Doomed 23 Mar 2009

[traderabc] 23/3/2009 20:07

Big screen, Jim Rogers on China







'It's not the end of the world'

[traderabc] 22/3/2009 13:32

Pav1, this might help. Bear in mind the min Investment is $250K (i think)

[pav 1] 22/3/2009 12:22

this guy currently runs a commodity fund do u have any details or epic code for it ...thanks

[traderabc] 22/3/2009 12:15

NWO Emergency Broadcast

New World Order Ahead

[traderabc] 21/3/2009 20:39

The Fed Did It, and Greenspan Should Admit It


Frank Shostak
Lew Rockwell.com
Friday, March 20, 2009

In his Wall Street Journal article from March 11, 2009, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan rejects the idea that the Fed’s low-interest-rate policy between December 2000 and June 2004 fueled the housing bubble, which in turn laid the foundation for the current economic crisis.




"Alan Greenspan rejects the idea that the Fed’s low-interest-rate policy between December 2000 and June 2004 fueled the housing bubble"



Lol!

[traderabc] 21/3/2009 20:31

Jim Rogers explains why he moved to Singapore and Why the World`s Future lies in Asia

Part 1


Part 2



Or this one, came out at around the same time.

[dutch alert] 20/3/2009 22:04

No money, no inflation-the role of money in the economy by Mervyn King, Deputy Governor, Bank of England. It was presented to the Festschrift in honour of Professor Charles Goodhart held at the Bank of England on 15 November 2001.
I found this quote in the following article. It would be interesting to read the paper King wrote in 2001. Conclusion: what Bernanke is planning - money first means inflation there after.


The deflation-inflation two-step: Too complex for deflationsts to grasp?
By mistaking the short term for the long term, they are missing the trade of the century

by Eric Janszen

Over 100 books, papers, and original analysis went into developing and refining Ka-Poom Theory over the years, and model that explains how, following the collapse of the credit bubble, the US economy will experience a short (six month to one year) period of deflation that we call disinflation, such as we are experiencing today, followed by a major inflation induced by monetary and fiscal policy and the actions of US trade partners in response to that inflation.

It appears that the deflationista camp is incapable of comprehending a model, and the events that it forecasts, that lays out a two step process. For some reason they cannot grasp the fact governments will respond to disinflation with inflation, that the impact of those interventions is not instantaneous, and that markets historically are not very good at foreseeing the change in inflationary conditions in either direction.

Ka-Poom Theory in 1999, the original disinflation/reflation theory developed nearly ten years ago, does not merely forecast a period of deflation or disinflation that is inevitable after the massive credit bubble popped. A child could do that. We call it "Ka" as the first step in the two step process outlined by Ka-Poom Theory. The difficult part is forecasting what comes after the disinflation phase. Does the Fed sit back and do nothing while the debt deflation runs out of cotnrol? Does the Fed have a choice, or does it become impotent, overwhelmed by the rate of debt defaults and money destruction?

The deflationistas apparently think what comes after post-bubble deflation is more deflation, as occurred in the early 1930s in the US but nowhere else ever since. It has not occurred to the deflationists why no similar period of deflation has ever occurred since the 1930s, or when they do confront the question they explain that the debt is really, really, really big debt this time, bigger than the Fed. Or that differences between the kind of money that the Fed prints versus the kind of money that the endogenous credit markets create when money is loaned into being by businesses and consumers means the Fed cannot impact the latter.

As we explain that in The truth about deflation, the reason no deflation spiral has occurred in any nation since the one instance in the US in the 1930s is because since then no nation has chosen to remain on the gold standard through a debt deflation. Needless to say, the US is not on a gold standard today.

What governments do when confronted with a deflation spiral is take measures to increase the money supply to induce inflation. If they succeed and money aggregates are increased, over time inflation will follow.

Money first, inflation second

One of the better papers on this topic is No money, no inflation-the role of money in the economy by Mervyn King, Deputy Governor, Bank of England. It was presented to the Festschrift in honour of Professor Charles Goodhart held at the Bank of England on 15 November 2001.
Most people think economics is the study of money. But there is a paradox in the role of money in economic policy. It is this: that as price stability has become recognised as the central objective of central banks, the attention actually paid by central banks to money has declined.

It is no accident that during the 'Great Inflation' of the post-war period money, as a causal factor for inflation, was ignored by much of the economic establishment. In the late 1970s, the counter-revolution in economics-the idea that in the long run money affected the price level and not the level of output-returned money to centre stage in economic policy. As Milton Friedman put it, 'inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon'. If inflation was a monetary phenomenon, then controlling the supply of money was the route to low inflation. Monetary aggregates became central to the conduct of monetary policy. But the passage to low inflation proved painful. Nor did the monetary aggregates respond kindly to the attempts by central banks to control them. As the governor of the Bank of Canada at the time, Gerald Bouey, remarked, 'we didn't abandon the monetary aggregates, they abandoned us'.

So, as central banks became more and more focused on achieving price stability, less and less attention was paid to movements in money. Indeed, the decline of interest in money appeared to go hand in hand with success in maintaining low and stable inflation. How do we explain the apparent contradiction that the acceptance of the idea that inflation is a monetary phenomenon has been accompanied by the lack of any reference to money in the conduct of monetary policy during its most successful period? That paradox is the subject of my talk.
This paper contributed three concepts to Ka-Poom Theory that deflationistas should think very carefully about. Read the paper and its conclusions are inescapable.

One, if "No money, no inflation" then if "Money, inflation." Two, money first, inflation second with long and unpredictable time lags. Three, the money markets always get it wrong; inflation expectations are sticky following periods of deflation and sticky following periods of inflation. The big money to be made in our fiat money era is in betting that the bond market is getting it wrong rather than assuming that a market that is forecasting future inflation or deflation is getting it right. When governments are inflating, the bond markets tend to be right short term, wrong long term.

That being the case, this may be the trade of the century because the bond markets are pricing corporates, treasury bonds, and TIPS as if it's 1931 and the US and the world was on the gold standard, or it's 1974 and recession is about to take inflation down for the count. Mike Shedlock does a good job of describing the phenomena here recently in Industrial Bond Yields Strongly Support Deflation Thesis. The error is mistaking short term for long term inflation pricing phenomena. The one step deflationists miss is the all important second step in the two-step Ka-Poom deflation/inflation process.

King demonstrates the long term correlation between money and inflation in the UK going back to 1885.

[traderabc] 20/3/2009 17:10

"The commodity index (even with its falls) has still been the best performing index of the last decade"

In fact I take that back, the price of Agricultural land (in UK)is behaving like Gold presently (@ record highs)

[traderabc] 20/3/2009 17:07

I don't know who this guy is, but he's speaking some sense.
Commidities are the only game in town.

US is Already Bankrupt: Analyst Puru Saxena

[traderabc] 19/3/2009 22:45

AIG Bonuses and Dead Companies

The idea that they are spending over a billion dollars on bonuses at AIG is complete insanity. They should of let them go bankrupt, so they did not have to pay anybody anything.

These are bankrupt companies, you don`t throw money into a bankrupt company. You give the money to competent people who can start over from a sound and solid base. You don`t try to prop up dead companies.



Americans are huge debtors, so we don`t have the money to spend

Its great if you take a trillion dollars from one pocket and put it in another pocket. If you own the pocket where the trillion dollars enters, you think this is wonderful.

But the trillion has to come from somewhere and you have to borrow it, tax it or print it. Unfortunetely americans are huge debtors, so we don`t have the money to spend.


When is it time to buy the Financials?

Normally when something like this happens the last thing to come out of it is the thing that led the problem going in. Five, six, seven or ten years from now you might start a new rise.

That is not to say you can`t have huge trading rallies and make a lot of money if you are nimble and quick.

Historically you don`t buy these things until they have cleaned themselves out and it takes a long, long time.


There isn`t a Sound Currency
I cannot find any currency that I feel it is going to be a sound currency. Even Singapore, which insists in having a sound currency has the problem, if they have a sound currency and everybody debases theirs they will go out of business.

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor known for his ability to predict major long term trends in several markets. Jim trades and tracks commodities, stocks, futures and interest rates all over the world. Jim has travelled extensively around the world and has written some of the best investment books available for traders. His latest book is a Bull in China, a book about the chinese stock market.

[traderabc] 19/3/2009 11:44

2030? 2012 more like.

Global crisis 'to strike by 2030'
By Christine McGourty
Science correspondent, BBC News


Water shortages are predicted across large parts of Africa, Europe and Asia


Growing world population will cause a "perfect storm" of food, energy and water shortages by 2030, the UK government chief scientist has warned.

By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington said.

Demand for food and energy will jump 50% by 2030 and for fresh water by 30%, as the population tops 8.3 billion, he told a conference in London.

Climate change will exacerbate matters in unpredictable ways, he added.

'Complacent'

"It's a perfect storm," Prof Beddington told the Sustainable Development UK 09 conference.

[traderabc] 18/3/2009 18:46

Jim Rogers: The Man, The Investor, His Books, Commodity Investments - Index Fund (RCI) & Stocks