Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 17/3/2009 08:14

JH,
Rogers has deep pockets, these bad calls could be looked back upon as good ones in a few years time, just depends on the timeframe used.
I believe he is a long term ,primary trend investor, (like Buffet) another who has made some 'bad' calls recently. His trades are based on fundamentals, this present market has nothing to do with fundamentals & everything to do with, margin calls, forced liqidations, and widespread fear. The market should sort itself out over the intermediate term, his calls will appear much better when it does.
His Int Commodity fund may well be down 50% recently, however I think you will find it is comfortably up since inception (150+%?)
Agreed, we should all do our own research, then we should share it here, feel free to to post your opinions , I do!

[edmondj] 17/3/2009 08:14

John Hampton,

Thank Heavens for some objectivity here. Jim Rogers talks a seductive patter, is entertaining and has interesting observations, his recent analysis of the structure of the UK economy was in the fruitcake league though - and exposed by various economists as such. The guy has also totally misjudged the oil market besides a few other things. No one has a halo for forecasting in this game.

[traderabc] 17/3/2009 08:00

JONO1,
Selling the $ and buying the Swiss seems like a sensible strategy,(over the longer term) the $ is fundamentaly flawed, it may be having a rally, but that is entirely expected, the thing has been plunging for YEARS, this rally will fizzle out and it will plunge again.
What happened with Refco?

[traderabc] 17/3/2009 07:51

'but if I am going to make money over the next decade then it will have to go much higher.'

I think it will, though I dread to guess what the consumer will be paying when it does. I feel this way about silver, it has gone up, but not enough.

[john hampton] 17/3/2009 07:42

Jim Rogers admits he makes wrong calls big time! He's seems a jolly sort of guy with wizzy bow ties etc but you need to do your own research as if you had followed many of his calls you would be seriously underwater, I think his Int Commod fund was down over 50% since July, not sure if its recovered a bit lately though but you get the picture.

[jonno1] 17/3/2009 07:36

I like Jim Rogers a lot and have read all his books, however his recent Calls on the Dollar and China have been catastrophically wrong, as have Peter Schiff's , he has also been selling the $ and buying the Swiss over the last year, I think he is rather buried on that bet, and lets not forget Refco.
Personally I think China will get far worse...

[049balt] 17/3/2009 05:53

trader, it is five am here in Ireland and I am up calving cows, and reading this thread, re. the quality,it has never been higher. Beef has held up much better that milk but if I am going to make money over the next decade then it will have to go much higher. Look forward to posting more here. Cheers balt.

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 22:51

049balt, have you read 'Fast Food Nation'?

Perhaps a bit dated, but still a shocking insight into the US 'meat industrial complex' where a tiny few get vastly richer while the rest get poorer, as does the quality of the meat. The only people with any power in this industry seem to be the big burger chains like Macdonalds.

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 22:44

Milk Chart, truely dreadfull. I wonder how much the 'quality' of the product must have fallen over the years.




& this one presumably feeds the 'meat', Why so high?

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 22:37

049balt
I'm sorry to hear that, do we have different prices here in the UK? Are the prices in the supermarkets reflecting this? Prices are already 'high' as far as the consumer is concerned. You (producer) are getting low prices, we (consumer) are getting higher prices. Why is this? Who has run off with all the dough? Asda/Tesco/Sainsburys?


This,I suspect is the (longer term) 'world' Rogers is living in. Merely a pull back in a rising trend. Bear in mind he's going to be long commodities for another decade.




Edited
Incorrect, after a good run ,a 45% pullback, the commodity index is having a half price 'sale' probably due to economic uncertanties, forced liqiudation, and abundant fear. This 'sale' shouldn't last that long, the population level isn't dropping (yet) demand for resources shouldn't suddenly dissapear, the banksters have 'created' a mountain range of new, even more worthless 'money', given some time, it should leak back into commodities.

[049balt] 16/3/2009 22:18

traderabc. Beef prices will not even cover the cost of production, milk has fallen to 1983 prices and grain is little better, I then read/listen to Rogers and wonder what world is he living in.

[cassandracomplex] 16/3/2009 22:12

Yes Jim Rogers, who used to work with George Soros at Quantum Funds, and like Me who has massively criticised Bank Bailouts, and your point is?

This is not an issue of Religion, it is a matter of Incompetance and Criminality ie Fraud in the Banking System as well proven by ongoing recent cases!

What has religion got to do with it?

I can't post Mainstream Media Stuff it is all dishonest lies, spin, obfusciation, and I might become guilty inadvertantly of missleading other readers, which is not fair.

You don't really listen to mainstream media any more do you after what you know about who owns and controls it all?

Cassandra

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 22:11

I listend to it & left it up, but I don't want that kind of stuff here, you have plenty of other threads for it, this thread is about Jim Rogers with trusted/mainstream media content only. Look at my links, that's all I put up here, I'm asking you to do the same.

[cassandracomplex] 16/3/2009 22:10

Why?

Looks like you are trying to stitch me up. Right no more posting on your threads, there was no reason to edit that post.

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 21:24

This is where I go for a chart overview of the main markets. Anyone know of a better one?

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 21:09

Agreed CC,
The guy is honest, decent and for real. I have great respect for people like him in the financial community. A breath of fresh air in the smoke.

Hugh Henry is another who says it as it is.

These are the kind of people the Government should be listening to.

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 20:58

049balt

Have beef prices fallen badly? On commex they seem to be doing fine.

I was following Wheat a while back and noticed a 70% correction.(on commex)
So then I spoke to a manager at Sainsburys and asked why this was not reflected in the price of their bread. He didn't know, but took my number and said he'd get back to me after he had asked at head office.
Latter I got the call, he said that they buy 'high quality' (not the stuff traded of commex) flour and it hadn't dropped in price that much. There were a few more excuses , they were so feeble I have now forgtten them.
Bottom line I suspect they fail to pass on favourable market prices to the end user.

balt, did 'euro zone' wheat not fall like it did on the commex? Do these price anomolies happen with the beef you presumably sell to the UK market?
ie the 'market' pays you a low price one year yet the consumer pays the same (higher) price?

[cassandracomplex] 16/3/2009 20:51

TraderABC,

The reason Jim Rogers is listened to, and quite correctly, is that he worked with George Soros, who knows the ways of the World, though at sharp end, and very ruthlessly, and most importantly for an American, Jim Rogers has travelled Globally at Ground Level as a traveller, ie Prime Mover Advantage, refer Investment Biker etc.

He also says what he thinks.

He is deserved of respect and regularly does not seem to be driven by politically correct considerations, saying it the way it is warts und all.

Cassandra

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 20:35

This is relevent here.

TheHardestButton - 16 Mar'09 - 19:01 - 411 of 413

Traderabc

Im always reminded of the terms and conditions ' past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance' when it comes to Jim Rogers

He's getting a bit apocolyptic in his more recent pronouncements. Always the sign that he's being given too much airtime.

But I know you love him so will say no more on the subject.

traderabc - 16 Mar'09 - 19:26 - 412 of 413 edit

I hear you THB, however somebody can get lucky for a year or two, even a decade, Rogers has been generally getting it 'right' for over 40 years.
He is completly justified (imo) getting a bit 'apocolyptic' right now, the debt, fraud and corruption has reached levels never seen before in human history.
Commentators have been talking about these problems for years and years. The politicians continue to make the same mistakes over and over again, thus compounding those problems, it will (& has) ended in tears.

It could take years to overcome the insanity that has lead us to here and now, the era of the paper shufflers is over, now only 'real' assets will retain value. Sure there could be a stockmarket rally in the shorter term, longer term the fundamentals will reassert themselves. The real issue (for us) is the value of the £ versus those asset prices.

Yet even now the BOE/FED's solution to overconsumption & debt is to use intrest rates/bailouts to create even more over consumption and debt. It WILL NOT work, trust Rogers with that prediction. It's just common sense.

[049balt] 16/3/2009 19:26

I am a beef farmer, and have followed rogers for a while now. Well done on starting this very interesting thread.
Edit. My biggest holding is PRM.

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 19:03

049balt

He admits he is no great market timer, I really do believe he is correct on agri commods, it will just take some time.
We have had the proof already, he called this sector many years ago, there were HUGE rises a few years latter.
This sector will go up in a big way (again)it is almost inevitable.
This present economic crisis has knocked down virtually all sectors, the SOUND ones with good fundamentals will recover and make some people very rich. Food, PM metals & energy are as sound as you can get, when what is paying for them (the $) is a total fraud.

[049balt] 16/3/2009 18:35

I see Rogers is very bullish on agri. commotities, I wonder how he can explain the present very weakness in that particular market.

[traderabc] 16/3/2009 14:50

This is good,

Jim Cramer and Jon Stewart went toe-to-toe last night. It was just like Ali-Foreman, only with more head trauma. But you didn't see everything. Much of the interview had to be cut for time. But this is the internet, where all we have is time. So, here now, is the exclusive, uncensored, complete three-part interview.



Never liked Cramer much, Jon Stewart is a laugh though this is the most serious I have ever seen the guy he said the 'F' word 3 times!