Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 03/3/2009 09:25

1.3.09
Learn to Sell Short Stocks
You can learn to sell short. I am starting shorting stocks again in the United States. I have covered in October, November with the thought there was going to be a big rally.

But now it is very clear that these people in Washington have no clue, zero, on what is going on.

So I have started selling short in the United States. That is one way to play it.
What Currency should you Own?
What kind of cash? If you owned Iceland Krona you would have been wiped out. You have to own the right kind of cash. Cash is an alternative for people who don`t want to try to do anything.

I still own my US dollars. I plan to get out of the US dollar some time this year. It seems that the short covering rally, it is an artificial rally, people are forced to cover their shorts in the US dollar and there were huge short positions.

28.2.09
Civil Unrest in the United States
I expect to see social unrest, civil unrest in the United States a couple of years from now. Yes its changing the entire situation in the United States, the US is the largest debtor in the history of the world. There is a dramatic change taking place.

The world`s century is moving from the west to the east, to Asia and many people have not figured this out yet.

Yes, you are going to see a lot of turmoil in the United States in the next 3, 4, 5 years.


Agricultural Commodities
I think agricultural commodities are probably going to do better then others for the moment because many agricultural prices are still very, very low on historical basis. Sugar is still 80% below its all time high, just to give you an idea.

Cotton is 60% below its all time historical high. You know, there are not many things that are 80% below where they were 35 years ago. Sugar futures are one of them.

Farming, Real Assets. no more Finance and Paper Money
I am the world worst market timer. I just try to be long things that are going to do better than the things that I am short on. By the way the best sector in the world that I know right now is probably agriculture. Everybody should become a farmer. Farming is going to be one of the greatest industries of our time for the next 20 to 30 years.

It has been finance and paper shuffling and money, now it is going to be real things and real assets.
Outlook for Commodities
The only sector that I know the fundamentals are improving are commodities. Many farmers in the world cannot get loans for fertilizers now, inventories of food are at 50 year lows.

Nobody can get a loan to open a mine, oil reserves are declining around the world at a fairly rapid rate, the fundamentals because of the supply of commodities is the only thing I know that is getting better.

If you need to own something I would suggest to you to learn how to own commodities and selling stocks short.

[traderabc] 03/3/2009 09:15

2.3.09
Interview on Dateline, Australian TV



Listen to what he has to say about the central bankers.

[westcoastrich] 01/3/2009 09:39

A classic

Everybody's Talking At Me Lyrics
Artist: Harry Nilsson


Everybody's talking at me.
I don't hear a word they're saying,
Only the echoes of my mind.
People stopping staring,
I can't see their faces,
Only the shadows of their eyes.

I'm going where the sun keeps shining
Thru' the pouring rain,
Going where the weather suits my clothes,
Backing off of the North East wind,
Sailing on summer breeze
And skipping over the ocean like a stone.

I'm going where the sun keeps shining
Thru' the pouring rain,
Going where the weather suits my clothes,
Backing off of the North East wind,
Sailing on summer breeze
And skipping over the ocean like a stone

[traderabc] 27/2/2009 13:05

26.2.09
Time to Buy Stocks?
I have sold all my stocks everywhere in the world, except for some stocks in China. I bought some more stocks in China in October and in November but I am not buying shares anywhere in the world. These are economic hard times, people need to understand that.

The very fact that people constantly say to me, "aren`t you buying?", "what are you buying?", this means that people don`t quite understand yet what is happening in the world in 2009.

Economic Recovery in 2009?
If everybody believes we are going to have a recovery in 2010, and that things will be better in the second half of 2009, I promise it is not going to be and probably it is not going to be in 2010. Specially if that is the consensus.

All this people that are in the consensus business told you a year ago that things will be fine, they told us 6 months ago that things would be fine. Now they tell us that things will be fine in the 2H09. The consensus has been totally wrong, and they continue to be dead wrong.
Jim Rogers on the US Economic Situation
The United States is in serious trouble, the people in Washington do not have a clue of what is going on. In two years this has been brewing and for two years they have been making mistakes. So the US is going to have its worst economic time since the 1930`s.

[bluebelle] 26/2/2009 15:41

traderabc - 25 Feb'09 - 15:23 - 72 of 74
Seems Frost is working for Al Jazeera.

I think it's the other way round !!!

[traderabc] 26/2/2009 15:37

"Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again."
-Sir Josiah Stamp [1880-1941] former Director, Bank of England

[traderabc] 26/2/2009 11:21

Video Interview on NDTV India

[traderabc] 25/2/2009 15:23

Jim Rogers in a TV interview on Al Jazeera Television Network.
Seems Frost is working for Al Jazeera.

[traderabc] 24/2/2009 14:12

22.2.09
Jim Rogers about the Dollar
Jim Rogers spoke about the US Dollar rally and his views on currencies.

CNBC ANCHOR: Are you surprised at all that the dollar seems to have found its footing despite the fact that the government is extending the balance sheet in the ways that I know for sure that you are not happy about? You have been famously bearish on the US dollar, yet it seems to defy gravity. Do you think this is a temporary thing that will come evident when the forced liquidation you talked about ceases?

JIM ROGERS: I have certainly explained several times I expected a rally last year in dollar. I thought I would get out of all my dollars last year on the rally, I didn’t because it's been much stronger than I expected because there is this massive forced liquidation, there are huge short positions in the dollar, everybody is having to cover up and I haven’t sold rest of my dollars yet. I suspect I will do so sometime this year but who knows it could go another year for all I know.

[traderabc] 22/2/2009 18:16

This is funny.





23.2.09
Rogers on Cotton and Agriculture Commodities
"I think agricultural commodities are probably going to be okay. I think all commodities. I’ve bought more of all commodities recently. Agriculture probably is beaten down more than others. But if I told you cotton, I’m sure cotton would be the worst this year. I’ve bought more of all of them." JIM ROGERS, February 2009, CNBC

[traderabc] 19/2/2009 21:48

Commodities Bouncing Back in 2009

Click link for graphs.




By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors
Feb 19, 2009

The numbers for 2008 are in, and we can now quantify just how rough the year was for commodity spot markets.

So far in 2009, the results are much better, though that's not the case across the board.



Out of our basket of 14 hard and soft commodities, only coal and gold finished 2008 in positive territory. Coal was up 12.6 percent due to a relatively strong first half of the year, while gold rose nearly 6 percent during the year as many investors concerned about rapidly devaluing assets fled to a safe haven.

Contrast this to the stellar performance of commodities in 2007, when all but three of the 14 finished positive. Wheat led the way with a 77 percent gain, followed by oil's 57 percent increase and lead at 43 percent.

In fact, even though coal was at the top of the heap in 2008, its performance was 16 percentage points worse than in the previous year, and gold's gain last year was 25 percentage points lower than in 2007.

Lead plummeted to the bottom of the chart in 2008, trailed closely by copper, nickel and oil. Of course, for oil, it was a year of extremes - it soared to a peak of $147 per barrel in July before nose-diving to under $45 by year-end.

In bull markets, the old saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats. In a falling market, those same boats often end up as shipwrecks.

You can see that in the 2008 returns. In none of the previous eight years did so many of the 14 commodities finish underwater - the next worst year was 2001, when nine had negative returns.

2001 was one of the worst years for commodities in recent memory, with natural gas falling 74 percent, oil 26 percent and nearly all of the industrial metals turning in double-digit losses. But even that year pales next to 2008.

The mean return for the 14 commodities in 2008 was -34 percent (-17.4 percent in 2001), and the median was -37.4 percent (-16.1 percent in 2001).

Eleven of the 14 commodities finished with a loss of 20 percent or more in 2008. That is more than the previous eight years combined.

2009 is still young, but two spot commodities are already down more than 20 percent - crude oil (-23.8 percent) and natural gas (-20.2 percent).

It's been a much better six weeks for silver, which is up nearly 19 percent in 2009. Palladium (+15.8 percent) and platinum (+14.9 percent) have also started the year on the right foot. Gold is up about 7 percent.

And lead is once again buoyant - it's risen about 12 percent so far in 2009.


Frank Holmes

[bluebelle] 19/2/2009 17:39

traderabc

I think you're right. Like any investment, it depends on your time scale but I think that house prices still have further to fall.

[traderabc] 19/2/2009 17:21

'the best thing to do is buy a house'

'HE encouraged and exaccerabated it.'

I don't know if I'd agree, if house prices were 'normal' yes, but we have just come out of a huge bubble, created by stupidly low intrest rates, the prices have dropped, but they are still high.
I'd expect the bubble to deflate further (especially in the south east) before I'd be tempted.

[johnpaul1] 19/2/2009 16:24

if inflation is on the agenda then the best thing to do is buy a house. this applies to all those renting waiting for prices to fall further. i reckon this spring / summer will be a good time to buy.

[traderabc] 19/2/2009 13:18

How to Solve this Crisis
"What America has been doing now is consuming and increasing debt as a way to solve their problems. Listen, that is what caused the problems! America has been consuming for 25 years." JIM ROGERS

What is the solution for this crisis?

"What should be done is to go ahead and take the pain now. If you take the pain now, it is going to be sharp and it is going to hurt, there is no question about that. But in the last 15 years in America he had the worst credit excesses in the world histoty. And it has spread to Europe has well.

You just don`t come out of a period of horrible excesses like this and say "Oh well, that was bad, now it is finished and we all go to bigger and better things." Someone has to pay the price." JIM ROGERS

"Takr the pain, let a lot of people go bankrupt, get it over with and start over. That is how you solve the problem. It is better to have millions unemployed now then tens of millions down the road screaming for food. We have lots of umbrellas, social safeety nets now, to help people. It is better to have millions unemployed with the safety nets, then tens of millions unemployed when the safety nets have all collapsed" JIM ROGERS

[traderabc] 19/2/2009 13:16

February 19, 2009
Rogers on the Economy
Rogers strongly criticized the Obama’s stimulus package on Al Jazeera television, pointing out that more good money was being thrown after bad. Jim Rogers added that the United States was following the same disastrous policies as Japan in propping up companies that should be allowed to fail. The same medicine will have the same consequences as much as 20 years into the future.

[traderabc] 19/2/2009 13:15

Central banks and President-elect Barack Obama should be careful in responding to the global economic slump, Rogers said.

“It is astonishing how bad they’re reacting this time. It is unfathomable to me what they’re doing and you think some of them would have read some history,” he said.

[traderabc] 17/2/2009 20:03

lol! Probably nothing will happen, but never say never...

Some intresting facts about tinned foods.




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"Daniel Webster's opinion should never be forgotten. Of paper money he says: “We have suffered more from this cause than from every other cause or calamity. It has killed more men, pervaded and corrupted the choicest interests of our country more, and done more injustice than even the arms and artifices of our enemy.”



From The Times
February 16, 2009
In times of crisis, never forget the value of gold
The dollar is simply a piece of paper. Gold is a much better store of value and is the best insurance against future shocks
William Rees-Mogg

Last week was a bad one for bank shares; after the HBOS £8.5 billion loss, Lloyds shares fell by a third and other bank shares fell as well. Yet it was a very good week for the gold price, which closed on Friday at $935 an ounce, after reaching what was nearly a seven-month high of $953.30 on Wednesday.

Barclays Capital commented that gold prices were resuming their long-run bull trend after eight consecutive years of gains. For longer than the past eight years I have been arguing that investment in gold is an essential insurance against financial shocks. Last week was a classic example. Respectable British bank shares have now fallen by up to 90 per cent, while the gold price has risen by more than 200 per cent since Gordon Brown began selling the Bank of England's gold reserve.

I have been following the gold price since I published The Reigning Error, a short book on inflation, in 1974. I have not consistently advised people to buy gold - like all other assets, gold can become significantly overvalued, as it did in 1980. However, I have found that the movements of the gold price are one of the most useful pieces of evidence about the health of the world economy. Mr Brown's sale of gold was an avoidable error. My friend the MP Peter Tapsell repeatedly warned him in Parliament not to do it.

People buy gold when they are nervous about the economy, and they are right to do so because gold is a unique commodity. It has to a high degree two qualities that are seldom found together: liquidity and reality. It has strong liquidity; it can almost always be bought, sold or exchanged. There are other liquid assets, of which the US dollar is probably supreme, but they lack gold's quality of real value.

Dollars do not constitute a real asset, such as property or “real estate”. The dollar is simply a piece of paper. Gold has been a much better store of value than the dollar.

In 1873 one of the leading British economists, William Stanley Jevons, published a short book, Money and the Mechanism of Exchange. By 1887 it had reached its eighth edition. Unfortunately, there are few modern economists who do not suffer from the delusion that new truths make old ones obsolete.

Great mistakes could have been avoided in 2008 if bankers and politicians had studied Jevons, even though his little book was written 136 years ago. Jevons quotes Herbert Spencer as observing that “it is the grave misfortune of the moral and political sciences that they are continually discussed by those who have never laboured at the elementary grammar or the simple arithmetic of the subject”. That was true then, and it is true now. Indeed, there are still some people who believe that poverty can be abolished by the issue of printed bits of paper.

Nowadays such people usually call themselves Keynesians, though their doctrine is not to be found in the works of Maynard Keynes, a much less simplistic economist than some of his modern followers. These so-called neo-Keynesians are hostile to gold, usually for two reasons. They see gold as the natural enemy of the paper money in which they put their trust; they see gold-related systems as imposing a discipline on the unlimited issue of paper money, and they reject that.

World trade depends on the existing global system, which is one of paper currencies, separately managed and largely unconvertible. These currencies float in terms of each other, sometimes with a fixed rate in relation to a larger currency. Since President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, there has been no fixed-rate convertibility between any of these paper currencies and gold. In the past 40 years the world exchange system has suffered from two periods of high inflation and is now suffering from the worst depression since the 1930s.

In 1873 Jevons could already write: “It is hardly requisite to tell again the well-worn tale of the over-issue of paper money which has almost always followed the removal of the legal necessity of convertibility. Hardly any civilised nation exists, which has not suffered from the scourge of paper money at one time or another... Time after time in the earlier history of New England and some of the other states now forming part of the American Union, paper money had been issued and had brought ruin.”

Daniel Webster's opinion should never be forgotten. Of paper money he says: “We have suffered more from this cause than from every other cause or calamity. It has killed more men, pervaded and corrupted the choicest interests of our country more, and done more injustice than even the arms and artifices of our enemy.”

In the 1930s some nations tried to beat the slump by competitive devaluations. In the present crisis, Britain has already experienced a very big devaluation of the pound, taking it down by a quarter against the dollar. Every country, led by the United States, has been issuing money, often in very large amounts, in order to bail out its banks. No one knows the total value of these national injections of cash into the banking systems. As the earlier injections have not restored stability to national economies, further injections inevitably will be made. All will be made in unconvertible currency, and overissue will occur.

Sooner or later the world's governments will have to reconsider Keynes's two real achievements, Britain's low inflation finance of the Second World War, and the world currency system that he negotiated at Bretton Woods.

Both Jevons and Keynes believed in the need for what Jevons called “a worldwide system of international money”. Without it, recurrent crises, such as the present one, will be inevitable. Governments need to create a new world system, in which gold, as a stabiliser, should play its part. For individuals, gold remains the best insurance against future shocks and the best store of value.

[m8] 17/2/2009 18:21

You forgot the shotgun and ammo...!
If its as bad as you recon then you'll need a gun.

[traderabc] 17/2/2009 16:13

Jim Rogers gave a video interview to Fox Business News this week Live from Singapore. Jim Rogers says "we don`t have a plan (Geithner, Bank Rescue Plan)".

February 15, 2009