Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/12/2016 14:39

Adelphi Capital £25m; BlueMountain £25m; and Odey £44m plus whatever is captured within ETF sector shorts

[anley] 05/12/2016 14:24

So who is still short please...........?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/12/2016 13:59

No one covering their shorts yet - so thats about another £100m of buying interest that needs to materialise ..

[phoenixw2] 05/12/2016 13:30

Not me Raffles. I've been banking just about all divs this year, and will do the same next year too, in order to get my margin on a reducing path towards hopefully have 0% by early 2018.
I certainly like the stock though and currently expect to hold it for the foreseeable into 'early retirement' [mid 2018].
Interesting observation in the research-tree article, the Forward Yield is currently higher than the P/E!

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/12/2016 12:43

don't know about you lot but feel compelled to continue buying here ...

[phoenixw2] 05/12/2016 11:35

Ditto@Jambo.
Initially I thought you had to register to read it but you don't, the piece on BKG begins about half-way down the page.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/12/2016 11:00

thx jambo good to read ..

[anley] 04/12/2016 09:58

I am a seller at around the £29 level as I will have made a huge profit in only 4 months of holding the stock and besides I do feel that the UK home building industry is not going to be trated well by the City as 2021 draws ever closer and the Help to Buy deal fades away............

Thank you Mr Pidgley and your team............and I know you will carry on the good wortk.

[rcturner2] 04/12/2016 09:03

"The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in his or her judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high.[1] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities. Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct ways: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance; (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others; and (3) overprecision in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one's beliefs.[2]"

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/12/2016 22:35

Brief comment from Northern Trust (though I appreciate those bearish montyhedge may not wish to read any further):

One thing is clear, talk of soft-Brexit is good news for sterling. We learnt this week the Remain campaign is still being funded (quietly) suggesting they have not given up on the UK’s position with Europe. While we wouldn’t expect to hear much from them ahead of the UK Government’s appeal in the Supreme Court there is always a chance Bremainers gain greater voice thereafter which could impact sterling. A stronger sterling should be good news for domestic cash-flow businesses like the home-builders. To this end we note Berkeley Group (buy) released H1 figures yesterday that were largely in-line with consensus. What was interesting is the new long term PBT guidance now out to 2021 and a shift to do buybacks over dividends owing to management’s view on valuation. In other words, if you don’t buy their shares, they will! On the valuation point, we agree, BKG is on its equal lowest multiple in a decade (implying a down-cycle in earnings ahead) and its cheapest P/E multiple relative to the SXXP. Unsurprisingly to us, the three year to FY18 £2B PBT guidance is unchanged. There is now five year guidance from FY17 of £3B, which implies an annual PBT of £500M. We are not sure how reliable consensus estimates will be out to these years, or whether materially different, but the point is management is sticking its neck out and pinning this figure to the mast as it were. A return of £2 per share per annum over the next five years (7.5% yield, after the stock is +4% on the results) is being committed to. This gives a lot of reassurance about future prospects given management’s track record on gauging the cycle. On top, management also thinks the stock is too cheap, so buybacks will be effectively favoured over dividends. We agree, a consensus dividend yield of 7.5% is above the FY17 P/E multiple of 6.8x, implying a steep decline looms. Clipping a bear 8% dividend over the next five years provides something of a cushion in the potential price declines in the ASPs of some of its portfolio. We remain buyers.

[montyhedge] 03/12/2016 20:51

WoodGet on a train to Waterloo, look at the unsold two bed, two bath apartments and thousands under construction, hope the builders have buyers for them. Let's see what happens, as long as they keep paying the dividend it's fine.

[this_is_me] 03/12/2016 20:25

Bkg is my largest holding bought 4 years and a few months ago at around £14. Possibly you could argue that I should have sold at its peak and bought back but I decided when I bought my holding that I would just keep it long term and salt away the dividends in my ISA out of reach of the tax man. There is still a housing shortage compounded by the stupid attack on landlords by the government.

[montyhedge] 03/12/2016 19:07

I can see why you bulls are so sensitive and no sense of humour, but I suppose not funny losing money.Bear closing that's all.

[phoenixw2] 03/12/2016 18:49

Grow up child

[zho] 03/12/2016 15:11

phoenix

In these proposals announced today, the Board confirms that the next GBP1 per share, equating to GBP138.8 million, will be returned by 31 March 2017 with the amount of this to be paid as a dividend to be announced in February, taking account of the cost of any share buy-backs made in the intervening period.

[phoenixw2] 03/12/2016 14:42

Thanks for the suggestion, but I can't see anything that applies...
hxxps://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/investor-information/results-and-announcements

Have they reset the timetable from previously?

[r ball] 03/12/2016 13:23

PhoenixIt's being announced in Feb and paid in March. See page one or two of announcement.

[phoenixw2] 03/12/2016 10:10

Lol @ Monty, 'just a bear squeeze', nothing whatsoever to do with their profits increasing +34%. Capitulated yet or still in denial?

Anyone have the div schedule for the upcoming one? Monty? I've sure paying out that div has your focused attention lol.
More seriously I couldn't find it on the BKG website, and not a whisper of it in yesterdays results. Seems odd given it's going XD in circa 2 weeks time.

Meanwhile based on the div from Dec-15 I've pencilled in these estimated dates...
X/D 15-Dec
R/D 16-Dec
P/D 27-Jan

[warranty] 03/12/2016 09:02

Cheers guys, just thinking that all the funds who unloaded when we fell out would have to buy back in again. I would have thought with such a low valuation, a stated aim of the company to raise the share price and a stunning yield it would be a no brainier but I know it doesn't always work like that. Not that I'm bothered, I can only see the value increasing anyway stocked away in my ISA.