Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[cravencottage] 26/1/2020 22:07

No agenda guys

Just fishing for intelligence before topping up my holdings on the current bout of BEG weakness..

some chaps on the LSE.Shares board were deramping on the basis of regulatory legislation impeding BEG's progress and possibly subjecting them to some punitive measures..

Now from what Aleman's suggesting i'd be shocked if this info has any relevance whatsoever.

Cheers

CC

[aleman] 26/1/2020 18:30

LOL. That's funny. Regulations are always changing in accountancy and insolvency.

More seriously, though. HMRC is pushing itself up the pecking order in insolvencies to get its money first, making life tougher for some other creditors. Also, a consultancy paper was published in 2016 for a short moratorium in the insolvency process to buy some companies more time to sort themselves out. The legislation for this should be approaching voting stages after Brexit delays so that might be what you mean. Companies will still need legal help and approach the likes of BEG. BEG does business restructuring services - not just insolvencies. They receive payment for helping companies survive, too. I think the legislation's proposed moratorium period was limited to a month and was reckoned to be a tool that many companies might not bother with, bearing in mind there are already standstill agreements that are sometimes used. The impression I got was it would help a little but not make a huge difference to anything. I presume this is what you are referring to since it should be on the Parliamentary agenda for 2020 right after Brexit - unless you think otherwise and care to put some detail in your post?

[dozey3] 26/1/2020 17:38

Ah, sorry, I thought you were genuinely confused. Everything and everybody is subject to regulation

What have you heard?
Where did you hear it?
From whom?
What kind of regulation?
Could they just possibly have an agenda?
Do you?

[dozey3] 25/1/2020 05:31

Perhaps the surge of optimism Friday triggers the fall in those likely to benefit from distress in the market, including BEG. why the optimism? I don’t know. Could it be that the latest round of interest rates by banks and BSocs to derisory rates has triggered a move into equities? Long-term holders (till death do us part) won’t be shaken out of BEG anytime soon.

[cravencottage] 24/1/2020 22:22

What's going on here...

Any ideas why the share price has taken a hit?

Just good old fashioned MM tree shaking?


Or does anybody know anything i'm unaware of?

Cheers

CC

[ironstorm] 14/1/2020 08:09

Where US leads we generally follow.

But investors are still looking forward to the money of the fed washing around along with the promised deal with China.

I reckon once the extra growth from these does not come through then we will see the reconnect between prices and earnings. Q3?

[farnesbarnes] 13/1/2020 22:01

It’s another dodge uncrossing trade for 450 quid at 89p. It will open at 91p in the morning.

[bogman1] 13/1/2020 21:45

Sp will be straight back to 91.5 first thing in the morning though..

[aleman] 13/1/2020 20:57

Hang on to your hats boys and girls. S&P500 reporting season gets into swing tomorrow. Early small and midcap updates for Q4 and the holiday season have been dire so far this year. I think it's going to get interesting.

[davr0s] 13/1/2020 19:07

You can't explain it (many will claim they can but they are just guessing). It's a share and they go up and down depending on the buyers and sellers in the market on the given day. The only way you could work it out as to identify and ask them all why they bought/sold and that ain't going to happen

[bogman1] 13/1/2020 19:04

Can anyone explain the sp? Up all day then drops off every evening at close. I hear unit trusts, but what are they up to???

[aleman] 10/1/2020 15:38

My guess is Brexit uncertainty will return on worries we will still leave with no EU trade deal. The short-term boost from the election will quickly fade. Besides, the economy generally follows the credit cycle and banks are still tightening. US earnings are NOT still increasing YoY as per S&P500:

Q1 -0.1%, Q2 +0.6%, Q3 -1.8%, Q4 consensus is -3.6%. So 2019 earnings per share are going to be negative DESPITE being enhanced by share buy-backs. 2020 might be forecast at +8.1% but this has been falling week by week and 2019 was predicted positive double figures a year ago but is now negative, after a year of regular profit warnings. It's missed by a mile and momentum is down. These numbers have also yet to be updated for some terrible Christmas retail updates in the last two days.

[ironstorm] 10/1/2020 12:50

Not sure I agree completely with your assessment, Aleman.

From my business / associates I see confidence returning (maybe not retail nor car sales).

Everyone I meet at the moment are maxed out and doing decent numbers. A friend who is in Construction Recruitment (at the Exec level), saw a dramatic turnaround within a week of BoJo winning. Projects approved for £100m's.

So I would expect to see a bit more of the same maybe better for a while. 3 months, 6 months?

All anecdotal of course.

As for the US as I see it, earnings are still increasing yoy, though the growth is slowing. Also Trump is going to do all he can to keep the Dow going up.

I am not completely bullish, the turning on of the taps recently does smack of serious liquidity issues, debt reaching its limits. But it does not feel like the end yet. One more push!!!!!

As for Beg we are positioning ourselves well, the uptick in recoveries is early days yet and am happy to hold as a hedge. My 5th largest holding and held since they were in the 40s.

[lefrene] 10/1/2020 12:22

I guess it's cheap money and Board members having huge bonuses linked to the share price. Borrow cheap money and buy up your own shares! Yes the FED dishing out something like $100 billion a day via the REPO market, because of the Banks who won't lend to each at the moment, it could go horribly wrong. I presume the FED is hoping and praying that they can skim over the bad patch without any damage to the real economy, and without spooking the population. Very noticeable that what is going on is not being reported in the mass media for obvious reasons.

[aleman] 10/1/2020 12:17

The number of offices has ticked up from 76 to 78 this week. There were 44 in Feb 2017.

[aleman] 10/1/2020 12:11

I take it the share price is benefitting from some awful UK retailer updates this morning (and horrid German manufacturing numbers this week). The economy is already stagnant and these updates make it look probable that GDP has turned slightly negative. What's more, there have been quite a number of poor US retail updates (and weak car sales forecasts) that make GDP forecasts for the USA of 1.5-2% look optimistic, too. What's baffling is why US shares keep going up when earnings forecasts keep going down and corporate debt keeps going up. Just how long can the Fed keep monetising US debt before the market decides it does not like it? (It's been buying Treasury bonds off banks only a few weeks after they've bought them off the Treasury.) There is no such thing as free lunch. Somewhere down the line, we will pay for it.

[gbh2] 09/1/2020 13:03

This is up a penny almost every day yet the share price is virtually static :)

[aleman] 07/1/2020 08:11

Bid has come back at 87.5p so closing auction price was garbage.

[eeza] 06/1/2020 18:18

UT's = bent as a nine bob note.

[aleman] 06/1/2020 18:00

UTs in small caps are often irrelevant to the days trades before and after and I suspect it will be in this case. I don't see how misleading low volume small cap auctions benefit the market if they give misleading price signals.

[podgyted] 06/1/2020 17:16

The UT was a bit harsh!

[aleman] 06/1/2020 16:48

What's odd is how the trades have changed. Used to just be O-trades of a few thousand. Now AT-trades, big trades, small trades. We did not get trades of under 100 shares in the past. 6 of them today. It's not that long since we only got 6 trades per day in total!

[aleman] 06/1/2020 16:34

It's just gone back to where it was before the Daily Mail tip. Should steady now.