Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 30/10/2019 09:43

Business insolvencies up slightly again. Personal insolvencies up strongly.


Q3/2019 corporate insolvencies in England and Wales up 1.6% on a year ago. (Scotland +8.6%, NI -21.5%)



Q3/2019 individual insolvencies in England and Wales up 22.7% on a year ago. (Scotland +12.7%, NI +34.0%)

[topvest] 28/10/2019 10:07

Yes, scope for further upgrades as well given the expected tailwind from recessionary conditions aided by acquisitions. Bodes well. I can see £1.25 within the next 6 months, if all goes to plan.

[aleman] 28/10/2019 09:34

Canaccord price target 105p. Forecast for next year moves up to £10.5m and 6.5p EPS but dividend still at 3.0p. That's pretty much a doubling of EPS in 4 years.

[lefrene] 25/10/2019 12:26

New highs are usually a good sign, makes one wonder what that sharp drop into the low 70's was really all about? Thank you Aleman, I much appreciate your informed contributions.

[aleman] 25/10/2019 12:11

BEG get some kind of mention on stockopedia, too.

[aleman] 25/10/2019 12:06

A good run of buying this morning. On looking around, I see there's a tip update in the IC where they agree the acquisition is earnings enhancing. It indicates they remain buyers at 87.7p.

[aleman] 25/10/2019 08:04

They've still got £1m or so left from the fundraising plus whatever cash generated in half a year of trading so maybe one more small acquisition for £2-3m. They look to be earnings enhancing. EPS forecasts for next year should move up to 6.5p+ and we should see a restrained increase in the dividend forecasts, as I assume they will push cash into acquisitions if they are going to be earnings enhancing. Dividends 2.85p and 3.1p for this year and next then?

[aleman] 25/10/2019 07:37

Another acquisition.



I'm now guessing adjusted PTP of maybe £9.6m this year and £11.0m next year.

[aleman] 23/10/2019 16:05

From last week - some organic expansion in Leicester.

[aleman] 23/10/2019 14:28

Lots of weak corporate news from US/international companies today - ABB, Heineken, Snap, Texas Instruments, Skechers, Caterpillar. Q3 earnings season is off to a weak start. Things look to be deteriorating.

[topvest] 22/10/2019 21:08

There are not many companies that are benefiting from all the doom and gloom at the moment, but Begbies are one of them! Everyone else's downgrade is a Begbies upgrade, so should continue to do well in the next few months.

[aleman] 22/10/2019 15:44

A run of AT trades - buys this time. Tipped again somewhere?

[topvest] 21/10/2019 21:22

Yes, looks a reasonable deal again.

[aleman] 21/10/2019 08:25

This acquisition should take adjusted PTP to maybe £9.2m, with a half-year contribution, and probably £10m or more next year. More acquisitions are likely, though.

[aleman] 17/10/2019 10:05

Banks continue to reduce unsecured credit availability to households - down 11 consecutive quarters and expected to be down a 12th. Corporate credit availability is down two consecutive quarters and expected to be down a third. Secured lending is a little erratic but generally flat. Unsecured credit defaults continue their rising trend since the end of 2015 and expected to rise again next quarter.



I can only see the economy getting worse - and BEG getting busier - if banks continue to reduce unsecured and corporate lending as defaults rise and housing stays stuck in the doldrums.

[aleman] 12/10/2019 20:23

It's not very high for such a cash generative company that has little demand on the cash it generates so it just keeps making small acquisitions and paying a growing dividend.


The answer to your question is yes, the share price is up with events if there isn't a recession coming, but no it's still cheap if there is. (I think it's already here. Checkout Claimant Count - already up by half the total increase of the last recession, yet the B of E does not even look like cutting interest rates yet. Until they cut, I think BEG will keep getting busier.)



But don't forget they're expanding quite quickly now from the cash they're generating. 44 offices in Feb 2017 and 75 now plus cross-selling from the acquisitions. Recent years' forecasts have turned out to be slightly conservative.

[montyhedge] 12/10/2019 11:48

Looking at this p.e seems very high. Is shareprice up with event?

[aleman] 09/10/2019 16:28

Now, then. There's been a lot of buying over 86p in recent days but not as much movement as one might expect and some odd spread moves. Now we have 2 x 115k at 86p. Is that a big sell order finally clearing or something else?

[topvest] 08/10/2019 17:35

They have been appointed as administrators to Triumph Furniture in Wales as per the BBC web-site. That’s a pretty big one for Begbies, I would suggest.

[aleman] 08/10/2019 09:13

Timing the economy is not everything. You still have to pick the right investments. My record there is not bad at all but it's also nothing special. I've picked my fair share of duds.

[topvest] 08/10/2019 08:18

Well done. Very impressive. I had a high cash position and repaid my mortgage just before the last recession (in 2007 actually) so didn't do that badly.
I think you seem to be ahead of the consensus though, so I very much appreciate and respect your thoughts.
I'm c26% cash at the moment and thinking about opening a FTSE-SHORT ETF as and when things get jumpy.

[aleman] 07/10/2019 21:22

Yes. I'm on record of having called a recession by the end of 2008 after the yield curve inverted around June 2006. I posted that view on a few ADVFN threads then and subsequently. I sold my Lloyds shares at the time around £5.50. I became bullish again at the end of October 2008, as posted frequently on the JTC thread where some seemed to think I was mad. (See post 17015, 17111 and onwards.) The FTSE 250 double bottomed in October and November and the recent bull market started. I picked up a host of bargains on double figure yields over the following few months.

[essentialinvestor] 07/10/2019 20:56

US national debt has increased by about a third over the last 3 years.
That's Trump's economic miracle (mirage) for you.